Is grid tie solar worth it with states ending net metering?

[reader2580]

A number of states have ended net metering and no doubt more will be ending it. Is grid tie solar even worth taking the risk right now knowing that a year or two down the road net metering could just end?

I consume right around 5,000 KWH per year and my bill on budget plan is $66 a month. It has been suggested I go with a 4.2 KWH system, but that is based on net metering. I figure system cost around $7,000 doing it myself (before 30% tax credit.). I am doing this to reduce fossil fuel use, but it also has to have a payback and not cost me more than just buying electricity. Without net metering I would end up supplying free power to the utility company most days.

I live in Minnesota, but I don't get power from Xcel or any investor owned utility so the only incentive I get is the 30% tax credit.

[jflorey2]

A number of states have ended net metering and no doubt more will be ending it. Is grid tie solar even worth taking the risk right now knowing that a year or two down the road net metering could just end?

Well, most times they change net metering rules the existing users get grandfathered in, so if you get the system installed before they change it, then you will likely be OK. (And since public utilities generally have to have comment periods before rule changes you will see it coming.)

Beyond that it will depend on the details of the arrangement. If they don't allow solar, of course, you are SOL. If they allow net-zero systems then they will make sense in places that have very high power costs (like Hawaii) - and we'll start to see hardware that will take advantage of those systems to do more energy-intensive tasks during the daytime. If they go to a feed-in tariff it will depend on the difference between purchase and sell prices. Again, in places like Hawaii with very high consumer rates, it would likely make sense. In places like Idaho, with the cheap power they have there (8 cents or so) probably not.

[Sunking]

A number of states have ended net metering and no doubt more will be ending it. Is grid tie solar even worth taking the risk right now knowing that a year or two down the road net metering could just end?

No because you have few things that will prevent you from ever getting a payback. Poor location, inexpensive utility power, and now Net Metering is gone

I consume right around 5,000 KWH per year and my bill on budget plan is $66 a month. It has been suggested I go with a 4.2 KWH system,

Beg your pardon but that does not sound right. If you really used 5000 Kwh/year means you only use 416 Kwh per month. National household is almost 3 times that much a month. Are you sure that number is right?

[reader2580]

Beg your pardon but that does not sound right. If you really used 5000 Kwh/year means you only use 416 Kwh per month. National household is almost 3 times that much a month. Are you sure that number is right?

Yes, 5,000 KWH is correct. I added up all of my bills for the past year and it was actually slightly below that. I live by myself and the house is pretty energy efficient.

With net metering I figure a 10 to 11 year payback. If I lived in an area supplied by Xcel then solar would be a no brainer. The made in Minnesota program will pay up to 21 cents per Kwh for 10 years for all the power one produces.

Nobody says Minnesota will get rid of net metering any time soon. No doubt the power utilities would rather meet solar requirements from grid scale projects where they pay a lot less per Kwh. I expect the new Congress will dump the solar tax credit so I would like to get this done before that happens.

[reader2580]

I am looking at an array between 4.2 and 5KW. The plan is to use Solaredge optimizers and inverter. I am not sure on panels yet. I am leaning towards Mission Solar 320 watt panels I can get for $185 each. I like the idea they are at least assembled in the USA.

I am planning on ground mount because I have three acres and I have over an acre that has no shade at all.

[SunEagle]

Based on your limited yearly usage, low electric costs and location I would not expect any type of quick payback with or without net metering.

If your plan is to reduce fossil fuel usage then there are other ways to do that without investing in a solar pv system that has a very long payback. Such as reducing the use of your fossil fuel vehicle or turning off all of your electrical appliances when they are not needed.

If your plan is to go with solar then IMO you will have to bite the bullet and not expect getting your investment back this decade.

Solar is not for everyone if the main reason is to save money quickly. It is a long term investment that may not be financially worth while for people that do not have the funds to invest in.

[emartin00]

As a couple others have said, most existing users will be grandfathered in. I also don't see Minnesota eliminating net metering any time soon. I think we will see a lot more push to slightly decrease the rate you get paid for exporting energy, but not all the way to wholesale rates.

My other thought would be that if you install solar now, and in 10 years they eliminate net metering, you've probably already paid off the system. Now you can spend some money on a battery that will absorb your excess production, and allow you to use it later. In 10 years, batteries will be a fair amount cheaper, and you'll already have the panels.

[J.P.M.]

Beg your pardon but that does not sound right. If you really used 5000 Kwh/year means you only use 416 Kwh per month. National household is almost 3 times that much a month. Are you sure that number is right?

FWIW, I'm at ~ 6,700 kWh/yr. gross before PV in a 3,200 ft.^2 dwelling. I've also lived on a lot less than 5,000kWh/yr. in crappy, cold climates. I'd bet 5,000 kWh/yr. is possible, although not as common as it once might have been. Just sayin'.

Still. at that usage, and depending on the particulars of the application, PV may have a difficult time with cost effectiveness.

[reader2580]

I realize I am in a situation where solar is not ideal. The only reason I am even considering it this year is because I think Congress will eliminate the tax credit after 2017.

The house I am in was completely renovated in 2014. I had the attic insulation removed due to no proper vapor barrier and spray foam installed. The electric baseboard heat was replaced with forced air natural gas furnace and central air was installed. New windows and doors installed along with house wrap and new siding. All new Energy Star appliances. I think I could maybe reduce electric use another 10%, but my usage is already low.

Without net metering solar would be worthless for me without storage except maybe in the summer months. The peak times for solar most of the year are times I use the least electricity. I have no issue with a 10 to 12 year payback, but I don't want to be replacing major parts of the system in 25 years and not have paid it off through savings in electric costs.

[jflorey2]

I have no issue with a 10 to 12 year payback, but I don't want to be replacing major parts of the system in 25 years and not have paid it off through savings in electric costs.

From anecdotal evidence, you won't be replacing panels in 25 years; they effectively last forever barring mechanical damage or manufacturing defect. You may be replacing the inverter but that's a relatively low percentage of system cost. (And it probably won't be because the inverter fails; it will be because you want the features in a new inverter, or the POCO will want you to replace it to meet new standards - in which case they'll probably be some financial incentives to do so.)

As a suggestion, use PVWATTS to estimate your production and see what you will get. That will give you some good approximate numbers you can use.

[J.P.M.]

I realize I am in a situation where solar is not ideal. The only reason I am even considering it this year is because I think Congress will eliminate the tax credit after 2017.

The house I am in was completely renovated in 2014. I had the attic insulation removed due to no proper vapor barrier and spray foam installed. The electric baseboard heat was replaced with forced air natural gas furnace and central air was installed. New windows and doors installed along with house wrap and new siding. All new Energy Star appliances. I think I could maybe reduce electric use another 10%, but my usage is already low.

Without net metering solar would be worthless for me without storage except maybe in the summer months. The peak times for solar most of the year are times I use the least electricity. I have no issue with a 10 to 12 year payback, but I don't want to be replacing major parts of the system in 25 years and not have paid it off through savings in electric costs.

Sounds like you've done most/all of the right stuff in the best order. Now, get familiar with something called PVWatts from NREL on the net. Read the help/info screens a couple of times and do a couple of runs. Use 10% systems losses rather than the 14 % default.

After a few runs, you'll probably zero in on a system size. Ignore the PVWatts electrical cost/savings part - do your own based $$ saving estimates on what you know or can learn. The future (if any) for net metering and/or what form(s) it may take will affect cost effectiveness things some, maybe a lot. Putting an ear to the ground can sometimes help guessing the future.

I'm unaware of your local going rate for cost/STC Watt of turn key grid tied install. It might be somewhere between $3.25 - $3.75/Watt at this time, but that's dependent on your market. Knowing local PV market conditions will give you a bit better SWAG of what a system will cost. Whatever your choice, if it is the PV route, just buy quality in equipment and probably more importantly, vendor, and think long term, not necessarily low initial buck.

Avoid leasing and avoid Sunpower - great stuff, just very overpriced - and be very skeptical of the peddlers' hype. Panels are now a commodity. All equllay sized PV systems in the same location, orientation and duty will produce about equal annual output for as long as most folks are likely to own them - just buy quality.

Take what you want of the above. Scrap the rest.

[reader2580]

I've already done a bunch of scenarios with PVWATTS and I came up with about 5,700 Kwh produced with a 4.2 KW system.

Before shipping costs the panels will cost about $2600 while the optimizers and inverter will cost about $2100. If the inverters and optimizers need replacement that will cost about as much as the panels in today's dollars. They may cost less inflation adjusted in 25 years than today. I consider the inverter and optimizers to be a major part of the system.

It could very well be that in 25 years everything is still working just fine albeit with reduced power output as the panels age.

[J.P.M.]

I've already done a bunch of scenarios with PVWATTS and I came up with about 5,700 Kwh produced with a 4.2 KW system.

Before shipping costs the panels will cost about $2600 while the optimizers and inverter will cost about $2100. If the inverters and optimizers need replacement that will cost about as much as the panels in today's dollars. They may cost less inflation adjusted in 25 years than today. I consider the inverter and optimizers to be a major part of the system.

It could very well be that in 25 years everything is still working just fine albeit with reduced power output as the panels age.

Understood. Sorry for my poor assumption.

Most turnkey stuff is priced by the entire system. Is that different for your area ? Or, are you planning DIY ?

[reader2580]

I'm unaware of your local going rate for cost/STC Watt of turn key grid tied install. It might be somewhere between $3.25 - $3.75/Watt at this time, but that's dependent on your market. Knowing local PV market conditions will give you a bit better SWAG of what a system will cost. Whatever your choice, if it is the PV route, just buy quality in equipment and probably more importantly,

I am planning complete DIY on this to save money. I figure $1.60 per watt or less before tax credit. I have wired complete houses in the past and passed inspection. I wired up a standby generator last year complete with new sub panel and passed inspection there too.

[jflorey2]

Before shipping costs the panels will cost about $2600 while the optimizers and inverter will cost about $2100. If the inverters and optimizers need replacement that will cost about as much as the panels in today's dollars. They may cost less inflation adjusted in 25 years than today. I consider the inverter and optimizers to be a major part of the system.

That's a good reason not to use optimizers.

Are you in a location where shading is a big problem? If not just go with string inverters.