X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #31
    Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post

    Understood. Thank you.

    The reason for my question on inverter replacement cost discounting was, using similar logic to what you describe, if my life cycle time had been longer than 12 years (I expect people will probably be peeing on my grave before that), I figured the cost reductions in inverters would about cover the discounting to present value. Just wondering if my reasoning was shared by someone who seems knowledgeable about life cycle economics.

    Respectfully different from what seems your opinion however, and keeping in mind as well as acknowledging that every situation is different, with your situation looking a more than a bit off the beaten path of residential PV and so being a bit unusual, IMO only, simply because something will likely last 25 years or more does not automatically make 25 years an appropriate time period to use to gauge cost effectiveness for a residential PV system.

    Given a long enough time frame, you, I, or most anyone can turn what might be, in a more sober and realistic analysis, a poor decision, into what seems to be a no brainer cost effective scenario, by simply extending the analysis period long enough.

    Solar peddlers do it all the time.

    I'd suggest that to the degree most folks - but by no means all folks - don't stay in the same home for 25 years, and also betting that residential PV will add little, if anything, to resale values, using 25 years as a life cycle time to determine cost effectiveness for residential PV may be unrealistic and lead to falsely and overly optimistic economics and poor(er) choices.

    Sort of off topic, but not unlike a 25 year old derelict looking but still functional solar water heater can do today, there's also the possibility that today's bright, shiny, super duper PV system may be seen as an ugly dinosaur and "old technology" as advances - be they actual or hyped up to sell stuff - make current stuff less desirable in the furture and so lower the property value.

    Using a longer than appropriate life cycle for an application can be done to imply an artificially rosy economic picture to many, if not most residential applications.

    So, while I agree that 25 years seems doable in the sense the equipment will last that long, I question whether it's an appropriate length of time to use for more than what may be a minority of situations, and somewhat deceptive to use as a default time frame for Joe & Jane 6-pack who move every 6- 8 years or so, or are retired.

    Take what you want of the above. Scrap the rest.
    I pretty much agree with what you say.

    Yes, 25 years is a long time but Kyocera says they will last that long.......but just in case I bought 3 extra matching panels and keep them as spare parts in my workshop. Aesthetics are important to me. Replacing a 12 year old panel with the latest and greatest might operate OK but most likely will be the wrong size and color. I do not want my arrays to look like a patchwork quilt.

    Also I'm 5 years into my 7.5 year payback and right now its looking good to make the system pay for itself. If I have to or want to replace the whole system in 12 years then so be it. Just like most long term investments....some win, some lose......some are better, some are worse.

    I do have a unique situation with my "net billing" arrangement. But I believe net billing is the future of residential PV. I can look my neighbor in the eye and tell him he is not subsidizing (through his electric bill anyway) my PV system. We never talk about taxes. lol

    Comment


    • #32
      Originally posted by SunEagle View Post
      But why would anyone subject themselves to so many long stops (for charging) that may or may not have a charging station.
      Same reason you might drive across the country in a gas car, knowing that the places you want to stop may or may not have a gas station. Fortunately, there are a lot of gas stations out there - and there are now a lot of fast DC chargers out there. For a link to one such network, google "Supercharger map." You can drive anywhere in the US using that network.

      Here in San Diego, there are chargers everywhere. In many cases it's more convenient than a gas station - you can drive to the zoo (or an amusement park, or a restaurant, or a movie theater, or work) park and charge there, rather than making a special trip to the gas station. Of course you need that infrastructure there to begin with.


      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by jflorey2 View Post
        Same reason you might drive across the country in a gas car, knowing that the places you want to stop may or may not have a gas station. Fortunately, there are a lot of gas stations out there - and there are now a lot of fast DC chargers out there. For a link to one such network, google "Supercharger map." You can drive anywhere in the US using that network.

        Here in San Diego, there are chargers everywhere. In many cases it's more convenient than a gas station - you can drive to the zoo (or an amusement park, or a restaurant, or a movie theater, or work) park and charge there, rather than making a special trip to the gas station. Of course you need that infrastructure there to begin with.

        I would hazard a guess and say the bulk of the charging stations are located on the West coast as compared to where I live in Florida. Hopefully the rest of the country will catch up to places like San Diego.

        Of course since these fast charging stations are for the Tesla, I would say based on the price of those EV's I won't be using them.
        Last edited by SunEagle; 01-10-2017, 04:16 PM. Reason: added last sentence

        Comment


        • #34
          An ETS system is not for everyone.....but is does work where there is a large difference in cost per kWh in different time periods.

          I turned the ETS system model upside down. Instead of buying at night from the utility at favorable rates, I used PV power in the middle of the day to charge the system....then released the energy on my schedule.

          I can only do this since I am a low cost producer of PV energy. I am a low cost producer since I "did it myself". If you have to pay someone to do what you can do by yourself it will not work. Most engineers will tell you that labor is more than 50% of any material project. But it is not for everyone. I have for years encouraged DIY'ers on this site and others to do it but do it right.

          You can do PV energy DIY only if you are willing to invest the time and energy to understand the NEC code and satisfy the AHJ.

          Comment


          • #35
            Originally posted by DanS26 View Post

            I pretty much agree with what you say.

            Yes, 25 years is a long time but Kyocera says they will last that long.......but just in case I bought 3 extra matching panels and keep them as spare parts in my workshop. Aesthetics are important to me. Replacing a 12 year old panel with the latest and greatest might operate OK but most likely will be the wrong size and color. I do not want my arrays to look like a patchwork quilt.

            Also I'm 5 years into my 7.5 year payback and right now its looking good to make the system pay for itself. If I have to or want to replace the whole system in 12 years then so be it. Just like most long term investments....some win, some lose......some are better, some are worse.

            I do have a unique situation with my "net billing" arrangement. But I believe net billing is the future of residential PV. I can look my neighbor in the eye and tell him he is not subsidizing (through his electric bill anyway) my PV system. We never talk about taxes. lol
            Thank you for the response.

            J.P.M.

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post

              Thank you for the response.

              J.P.M.
              J.P.M. Are you a mod?

              Comment


              • #37
                Originally posted by DanS26 View Post

                J.P.M. Are you a mod?
                Not yet. But he can have my position if he wants.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by SunEagle View Post

                  Not yet. But he can have my position if he wants.
                  I'd like to be a "secret" mod if that position is available. Well....maybe not. I can only moderate on what I know.........which isn't much in the wide world.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by DanS26 View Post

                    J.P.M. Are you a mod?
                    I am not.

                    Take what you want of what follows. Scrap the rest.

                    And not a job I'd want.

                    I'm also not a parent and for what are probably most of the same reasons I'd not want a mod's job - even if I knew enough to do either well.

                    Besides, aside from getting a post or two yanked 1X/a while, and being accused of condescension on occasion (Oh, the humanity !!!), I seem to have the privilege being able to bloviate and spread my mental spoor around with what's mostly some measure of impunity.

                    So, I see my situation as somewhat analogous to the difference between driving a hardtop with all the windows down, and driving a convertible with the top down - all the breeze in the hardtop and most of the fun (now), but not as much of the crap blowing in to put up with and a lot less guano to clean off the seats (being a mod).

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      I understand.....less cr*p to clean off the back seat......

                      I have a soft spot for DIY'ers......I want them to succeed. My motto...."better, easier, faster and safer"....... They come here with such good intentions......

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Originally posted by DanS26 View Post
                        I understand.....less cr*p to clean off the back seat......

                        I have a soft spot for DIY'ers......I want them to succeed. My motto...."better, easier, faster and safer"....... They come here with such good intentions......
                        Don't know quite how or where that comes into the thread, but me too, and I wish them the best - sometimes more than I think they wish themselves. Done a fair amount of it myself and still do 1X/awhile.

                        But I'm also of the opinion that most DIY projects would turn out better, and more importantly safer, if the DIYers spent more time up front thinking before picking up a tool, and learning some of what's already been done and in so doing not reinvent the wheel, and also by getting accurate and sufficient information and real education from sources other than places like u-tube - the moron's how-to repository.

                        Lot's of fun to learn by doing, but my suspicion is a lot of the DIY stuff that's around would be done differently or not at all with more prior information and education.

                        an analogy: Traveling's a lot of fun as well, but if the goal is to get someplace you've never been before, doing so without a plan or a map is probably not the best way to start, and relating all the times you got lost and bad roads you took that planning and information could have avoided when you do get finally get to your destination is probably not the best way to impress others you tell about your adventure who may want to follow in your footsteps - especially if the know how to read a map.

                        Unlike your motto, what I see from DIY stuff in areas where I may think I may have some knowledge, is all too often and usually, less fit for purpose, harder to use, less efficient, and most importantly, sometimes and way too often dangerous. All of which, to some degree, is usually the result of avoidable ignorance.

                        In my experience, good intentions and industriousness are necessary but not sufficient to translate ideas to safe, efficient designs.

                        Look, DIY is fun and can be a good way to learn, and that's a lot, and hail the effort. But without some education and understanding of the "why" behind how things work, I've observed a generally inverse relationship between planning based on acquired knowledge and successful outcome.

                        But, not my time, effort, money, sweat, whatever. Just opinion.

                        Take what you want of the above. Scrap the rest.

                        Comment

                        Working...
                        X