Solar project SF Bay Area

[NorCalX]

My system is installed and generating energy.

City inspection is this week. I hope to get PVOutput up and running by the end of the week as well.

I have some early numbers on production so far.

The 8 panels on my garage with more of a SW facing (225 degrees) are dying out there with about 600kwh per day
The 19 roof panels with SE facing (135 degrees) are getting about 1kwh per day

My peak is just after 12pm so far.

Production for 12/15 was 21.74 kWh with a peak of 4.396kw

I assume as summer comes the garage panels will get much better exposure and start to close the gap but right now they are lagging behind.

[J.P.M.]

Not sure if I get a vote since I am the OP but I didn't purchase or even consider SP panels.

Don't think there is a need to continue debating the merits of SP.

I went with Solar World 280s instead of LG315 if you want to debate the premium benefits of one over the other

Fair 'nuff.

I would respectfully suggest that while you are the OP, and, I as well as some others have practiced poor thread etiquette, you comprise a relatively small portion of the readership of this post. Others may glean something of value from the diversion and spirited discussion. Still, you are correct.I apologize for my poor manners.

FWIW, those two are quality, fit for purpose products, either of which will probably give reliable output for a long as you're likely to own them. The final decision may hinge on the perceived possible future difficulties brought about as the result of any long term financial instabilities of either outfit. Time will tell. For now, your best informed gut shot is about the best you're likely to get in the crystal ball dept.

[ndabunka]

Not sure if I get a vote since I am the OP but I didn't purchase or even consider SP panels.

Don't think there is a need to continue debating the merits of SP.

I went with Solar World 280s instead of LG315 if you want to debate the premium benefits of one over the other

LOL - touche'!

[NorCalX]

Not sure if I get a vote since I am the OP but I didn't purchase or even consider SP panels.

Don't think there is a need to continue debating the merits of SP.

I went with Solar World 280s instead of LG315 if you want to debate the premium benefits of one over the other

[J.P.M.]

Only thing i would note is that the ONLY company that said they could get it in before the 12/31/15 deadline (needed in order to recognize the 35% NC tax credit) is the one selling the SP. So, in my case I could go SP with a small premium & get the 35% discount (via tax credit) or I could wait for a non SP product to be installed in 2016 without any tax credit. That actually makes my SP deployment SIGNIFICANTLY less expensive (to me) than ANY other option. Sometimes it's just about the timing.

Understood. Like you say, it's sometimes about timing. But, that sounds like a one off situation that could have been dealt with by a little heads' up ball and some better timing.

I also don't see what one individual situation has to do with residential system cost effectiveness on an industry scale based on panel quality and warranty and the uncertainty of the future. You're talking about one tree. My frame of reference is the forest.

[ndabunka]

I never heard anyone say S.P. was not a quality panel, just that they are not cost effective by what some others consider reasonable, understandable and acceptable criteria according to some who choose to take the time and make the effort to understand something of the economics of residential solar energy.

Since recent history seems (at this time anyway) to reinforce the opinion that most panel quality is good, making panel failures less of a factor in gauging the future worth of a panel or its warranty, to the extent that turns into future reality, I'd suggest all warranties are about equal, or at least more equal than the good folks at S.P. and their advertising dept. would suggest.

Is a 15-25% $$ premium for a S.P. system worth it ? Process economics, comparison of alternatives analysis and other economic tools can give guidance, but until crystal bells improve, guarantees are not available. And so, many folks who know something about solar energy and a smattering of engineering economics as they relate to solar process economics think not, maybe as many or more as think "SunPower panels are some of the best".

Is a 5 % $$ premium for a S.P. system worth it ? Again, given an uncertain future, who knows ? Usually however, the same economic tools mentioned above lead to the still uncertain but perhaps lower probability of a negative outcome for the lower (5%) S.P. $$ premium.

Is a 0 % or less S.P. premium worth it - yea, probably, until (anecdotally and my personal opinion and experience only) you find their product and array monitoring support to be poor.

At the end of the analysis, it's all about opinions about the probability of future events. The more uncertain the perception of the future, the more folks tend to be conservative in their risk. Hence the logic in not paying the S.P. premium, especially when it can be quite logically demonstrated that the S.P. quality, while quite good, may not be needed, sort of like paying for a Mercedes to do no more than haul groceries when a Ford is as fit for purpose, unless bragging rights are needed.

Bottom line: Buy S.P. if you choose, just walk in with your eyes and mind open and know that other, equally fit for purpose equipment is available that has a very high probability of operating as successfully with about equal annual output per installed Watt for as long as you are likely to own it for a lot less money up front.

As usual, take what you want of the above. Scrap the rest.

Only thing i would note is that the ONLY company that said they could get it in before the 12/31/15 deadline (needed in order to recognize the 35% NC tax credit) is the one selling the SP. So, in my case I could go SP with a small premium & get the 35% discount (via tax credit) or I could wait for a non SP product to be installed in 2016 without any tax credit. That actually makes my SP deployment SIGNIFICANTLY less expensive (to me) than ANY other option. Sometimes it's just about the timing.

[J.P.M.]

Many on here think that SunPower panels are some of the best even if they ARE more expensive. They provide a 25 year warranty that is better than pretty much ANY other manufacturer yet... they aren't even on your 2014 list so... is this just another example of "garbage in, garbage out"?

I never heard anyone say S.P. was not a quality panel, just that they are not cost effective by what some others consider reasonable, understandable and acceptable criteria according to some who choose to take the time and make the effort to understand something of the economics of residential solar energy.

Since recent history seems (at this time anyway) to reinforce the opinion that most panel quality is good, making panel failures less of a factor in gauging the future worth of a panel or its warranty, to the extent that turns into future reality, I'd suggest all warranties are about equal, or at least more equal than the good folks at S.P. and their advertising dept. would suggest.

Is a 15-25% $$ premium for a S.P. system worth it ? Process economics, comparison of alternatives analysis and other economic tools can give guidance, but until crystal bells improve, guarantees are not available. And so, many folks who know something about solar energy and a smattering of engineering economics as they relate to solar process economics think not, maybe as many or more as think "SunPower panels are some of the best".

Is a 5 % $$ premium for a S.P. system worth it ? Again, given an uncertain future, who knows ? Usually however, the same economic tools mentioned above lead to the still uncertain but perhaps lower probability of a negative outcome for the lower (5%) S.P. $$ premium.

Is a 0 % or less S.P. premium worth it - yea, probably, until (anecdotally and my personal opinion and experience only) you find their product and array monitoring support to be poor.

At the end of the analysis, it's all about opinions about the probability of future events. The more uncertain the perception of the future, the more folks tend to be conservative in their risk. Hence the logic in not paying the S.P. premium, especially when it can be quite logically demonstrated that the S.P. quality, while quite good, may not be needed, sort of like paying for a Mercedes to do no more than haul groceries when a Ford is as fit for purpose, unless bragging rights are needed.

Bottom line: Buy S.P. if you choose, just walk in with your eyes and mind open and know that other, equally fit for purpose equipment is available that has a very high probability of operating as successfully with about equal annual output per installed Watt for as long as you are likely to own it for a lot less money up front.

As usual, take what you want of the above. Scrap the rest.

[ndabunka]

The listed is reported MW, not $. Yes, the point in posting it was to show that even the top manufacturers can shuffle or disappear in a very short amount of time. Warranty support for anything except infant mortality is going to be hard to count on. Even in a case where panels have been shown to be a fire risk, the warranty didn't help too much in court. It sounds like they are more or less trying to settle by offering cash or a replacement to affected owners.

Performance warranty is even harder to prove unless the panel has failed, determining good from not good requires calibrated test equipment and controlled testing conditions not available to the typical homeowner. By the time you pay for shipping and accept the lost production from the missing panels, you might as well have just bough another panel to replace it.

SP provides a 25 year warranty. The large regional company (no, not ANY of the ones that so many from California are talking about on here) installing mine provides 15 years of labor and parts warranty. IMHO my risk is really with the local regional installer meeting their obligations some 9.5 years down the road.

[sensij]

Note that the lists are based entirely on the reported dollar volume of product shipped in that year. No matter how good SunPower's product is, it will not make the list if their sales are too low. Note that in 2009 they just barely made the list.

I think you just made my point. That list is basically worthless in trying to determine future viability. Being a larger manufacturer is no assurance of future results...

The listed is reported MW, not $. Yes, the point in posting it was to show that even the top manufacturers can shuffle or disappear in a very short amount of time. Warranty support for anything except infant mortality is going to be hard to count on. Even in a case where panels have been shown to be a fire risk, the warranty didn't help too much in court. It sounds like they are more or less trying to settle by offering cash or a replacement to affected owners.

Performance warranty is even harder to prove unless the panel has failed, determining good from not good requires calibrated test equipment and controlled testing conditions not available to the typical homeowner. By the time you pay for shipping and accept the lost production from the missing panels, you might as well have just bough another panel to replace it.

[ndabunka]

Note that the lists are based entirely on the reported dollar volume of product shipped in that year. No matter how good SunPower's product is, it will not make the list if their sales are too low. Note that in 2009 they just barely made the list.

I think you just made my point. That list is basically worthless in trying to determine future viability. Being a larger manufacturer is no assurance of future results...

[inetdog]

Many on here think that SunPower panels are some of the best even if they ARE more expensive. They provide a 25 year warranty that is better than pretty much ANY other manufacturer yet... they aren't even on your 2014 list so... is this just another example of "garbage in, garbage out"?

Note that the lists are based entirely on the reported dollar volume of product shipped in that year. No matter how good SunPower's product is, it will not make the list if their sales are too low. Note that in 2009 they just barely made the list.

[ndabunka]

Some history may help put the decision in perspective. Below are the lists of top 10 solar panel manufactures (by shipped MW) in 2009 and 2014....This is just 5 years... do you really think it is possible to know who will be around supporting (almost unenforceable) warranties in 10?

2014 top ten
1 Trina Solar
2 Yingli Green Energy
3 Canadian Solar
4 Hanwha SolarOne
5 Jinko Solar
6 JA Solar
7 Sharp
8 ReneSola
9 First Solar
10 Kyocera

2009 top ten
1100.0 MW First Solar
704.0 MW Suntech
595.0 MW Sharp
586.0 MW Q-Cells
525.3 MW Yingli
520.0 MW JA Solar
400.0 MW Kyocera
399.0 MW Trina Solar
397.0 MW SunPower
368.0 MW Gintech

Many on here think that SunPower panels are some of the best even if they ARE more expensive. They provide a 25 year warranty that is better than pretty much ANY other manufacturer yet... they aren't even on your 2014 list so... is this just another example of "garbage in, garbage out"?

[cebury]

After sleeping on it I'm going with Solar World.

The .25/watt is a hefty premium for similar performance (I wouldn't pay that for a stand alone warranty which is basically what my last minute thinking was devolving into)

Only 1 vendor expressed those concerns. Of all the estimates I saw only 2 did not include a solar world system (the other was a big name with their own "unnamed" brand).

Also...if Solarworld does go down I'll have some good company for the solar panel riots that ensue heh

Nobody will be rioting if their panels work fine for even 18+ years; 25 years is probably a good bet for all mid and top tier brands. Even if one or two broke, they cost so little now at under $1watt imagine if prices drop even more next 10years. You'll probably pay over 50% of costs in shipping compared to replacement of a new but compatible panel.

I tend to overthink each decision too. But in asmuch as panels are near/now a commodity, I've stopped that level of consideration.

[NorCalX]

HOA approval is done (1 day turnaround during Thanksgiving week...I'm shocked)

Now we hope the weather looks good for the install window early Dec

After all my posting about Solar World issues above I still believe they are a good gamble.

Sticking with the SW280s and using SolarEdge optimizers/inverter



As a side note...HOA likes the garage/internal location of the SolarEdge inverter

[NorCalX]

In case anyone reading this wants both sides of the story.


In the interest of fair and balanced reporting please see THIS response from Solar World dated Nov 12, 2015

http://www.solarworld.de/fileadmin/sites/sw/ir/pdf/finanzberichte/solarworld-q3-2015-en-web.pdf

At least paragraph 2 of page 4 and pages 22-23 indicates they don't care and are moving forward with the same risk estimate (what else do we expect in their disclosure?)

They insist they will "work it out"