Solar project SF Bay Area

[NorCalX]

I'm in Brentwood and just starting the bid collection process.

We use 12kwh annually (approx. $220/month in electricity)

Cement S-tile roof

I'm getting estimates for a full 100% offset as well as a more cost effective 85% offset and will decide later on




I will update this post as all bids come in but figured I will share what I have

Already getting sticker shock from the "big names" and seeing more reasonable pricing from smaller guys.

1-A
8.06kw
41,106 (5.1 per W)
No panel brand given or total required

2-B
7.8kw
30,000* (3.85 per W)
(rough estimate pending onsite inspection)
26 LG315 panels

3-C
7.56kw
25,000 (3.31 per W)
27 Solar World panels


4-D
6.76kw
26,719 (3.95)
SolarWorld 260
*more to come

5-E
7.3kw
29280
Q-cells (4.01)
*This is actually from one of the bigger names and the price is competitive with many of the smaller guys. Impressive presentation as well (very informative)

6-F
7.8kw
28470 (3.65)
LG315
*My leading candidate at this point


Trying not to put any identifying information in these estimates but I saw a trend after they were all collected. Size/reputation came with additional costs for the project


I'd love to hear what others liked and what they would do differently for their projects

Willing to listen to any and all advice



***EDIT***
Project is complete. Here was my timeline

12/9 Day 1 of install (roof + electrical + inverter done)
12/10 Rain (no install)
12/11 Day 2 of install (panels mounted and setup completed)
12/15 Inspection failed (require AC disconnect in sight of garage mounted inverter)
12/22 Follow up inspection completed
12/23 Net metering application submitted
12/30 Permission to operate granted

My last minute decision to go solar also made my personal goal of 2015 approval.

Woot woot!


Side note...financing for those also located in SF Bay Area

I used Provident Credit Union

Home equity loan. 3.5% fixed rate. Approx. $40 closing costs only.

Best I could find around here. From application submission to fund dispersal was just under 30 days

[Yaryman]

I'm in Brentwood and just starting the bid collection process.

We use 12kwh annually (approx. $220/month in electricity)

Did you get your annual use from PG&E? or was it an estimate?

I ask as we both are in Brentwood, and I just checked at PG&E.com for my mine.

It was $186 per month avg. and 10,200 kWh for they year ( Oct. 14 - Sept. 15 )

[NorCalX]

Did you get your annual use from PG&E? or was it an estimate?

I ask as we both are in Brentwood, and I just checked at PG&E.com for my mine.

It was $186 per month avg. and 10,200 kWh for they year ( Oct. 14 - Sept. 15 )

I pulled my entire history from them (monthly breakdowns back to 2010 when we bought the home)

Usage has varied from 11,000 to 13,000 annually (Jan to Dec) but average is 12,000 ish

[NorCalX]

Ok home stretch time.

I have my installer selected (he did a few for other members on this forum with positive experiences...that combined with competitive pricing was deciding factor).

Doing 100% offset with 7.56kw system

I need to decide between the cost efficient SolarWorld 280 modules for (3.4/watt) or paying a moderate premium for the LG 315 panels for (3.65/watt)
I don't need the higher efficiency of the LG315s due to a limited space. Is that the only reason to go premium panel?

My gut is leaning towards the solar worlds at this point but I'll sleep on it and decide tomorrow.

If I get the ball rolling I still have a "shot" of install (potential window 3 weeks out) and completion prior to 2015 but no promises.

If anyone wants to give feedback it is much appreciated.

[Bikerscum]

If anyone wants to give feedback it is much appreciated.

I'll give you one piece of advice having been there done that in the same city...

Despite what the installer, people on forums, etc. may tell you... the people in the city "permitting center" are your friends. I have dealt with them in Brentwood both for solar and for business license stuff and they will bend over backwards to help you. Walk in unannounced and a city planner (the guy with the power) will sit right down with you & discuss your problems.

It's an asset you pay for by living here, don't be at all afraid to use it.

Good luck!

[cebury]

Ok home stretch time.

I have my installer selected (he did a few for other members on this forum with positive experiences...that combined with competitive pricing was deciding factor).

Doing 100% offset with 7.8kw system

I need to decide between the cost efficient SolarWorld 280 modules for (3.4/watt) or paying a moderate premium for the LG 315 panels for (3.65/watt)
I don't need the higher efficiency of the LG315s due to a limited space. Is that the only reason to go premium panel?

My gut is leaning towards the solar worlds at this point but I'll sleep on it and decide tomorrow.

If I get the ball rolling I still have a "shot" of install (potential window 3 weeks out) and completion prior to 2015 but no promises.

If anyone wants to give feedback it is much appreciated.

From everything I've gathered here, other sites, and installers, it is nearly impossible to bet on which manuf. will be here for the long term to honor warranties. And most charge shipping on repairs, makes you wonder if will be cost effective to make a claim some time down the road after your vendor warranty is gone in 10yrs (in the unlikely event they are around that long). Getting into efficiencies is minutia and not worth the effort, except in the case of Sunpower panels being obviously more efficient in space and production over long term. The latter (what your situation can get some value from) has much less net value due to the much higher cost. It'd take many many years for a SP panel with the less degradation % to ever reach break even (if your analysis just includes that one factor).

Might as well pick LG solar panels if you like their washing machines or pick SolarWorld because they are as American made as many things can be nowadays, headquarters in Germany tho.

If you don't want to spend (waste?) money on top tier SP, as long as you avoid the bottom brands, the middle is a vast selection of good stuff...or so I'm told. I'm merely a customer.

[Yaryman]

Ok home stretch time.
I need to decide between the cost efficient SolarWorld 280 modules for (3.4/watt) or paying a moderate premium for the LG 315 panels for (3.65/watt)
I don't need the higher efficiency of the LG315s due to a limited space. Is that the only reason to go premium panel?

I've had the SolarWorld 280's on my roof now for well over 1,224 hours with no problem what so ever.
Can't see any reason to pay up for the LG315's when the SolarWorlds are so reliable. ( Yes, that is sarcasm for those wondering )

But in all seriousness, can't see any reason to pay an almost extra 2K for the LG315's if you have the room for the SolarWorlds.

[NorCalX]

The only concern I have with SolarWorld is one of the installers expressed a concern for the future of the company.

He said they used SolarWorld for many years but recently decided to remove it from their suggested brands. I asked why and was told financial and quality concerns about their future.


When I brought this up with a different installer I was given the opposite response. He attributed recent SolarWorld issues to manufacturing specifics in Europe. He had confidence in SolarWorld moving forward and was of the opinion they had overtaken their main competition and showed a trend of superior growth.



My limited google-fu research tells me SolarWorld faced financial issues in 2013 and some analysts said the odds of them going bankrupt were 50/50. Apparently "financial restructuring saw it reduce its financial liabilities by 57%, gain a new strategic investor, and convert its remaining financial liability of €427 million into two new secured, five-year bonds. The same article mentions SolarWorld having increased success after victory closing loopholes for Chinese products.

That leaves me to determine my investor confidence forecasting 25 years. feels like a coin flip.

I think I've done too much thinking today

Hopefully more experienced posters can chime in for me to read in the morning

[sensij]

I think you are overthinking it. Read cebury's post again.

[NorCalX]

After sleeping on it I'm going with Solar World.

The .25/watt is a hefty premium for similar performance (I wouldn't pay that for a stand alone warranty which is basically what my last minute thinking was devolving into)

Only 1 vendor expressed those concerns. Of all the estimates I saw only 2 did not include a solar world system (the other was a big name with their own "unnamed" brand).

Also...if Solarworld does go down I'll have some good company for the solar panel riots that ensue heh

[J.P.M.]

OP:

As much of a PITA as it is, you're, IMO anyway, doing the right thing with respect to the effort and due diligence. (BTW, don't forget to have your roof inspected/maintained - more due dil. & cheap insurance you will not regret).

As for panel quality diff., I suspect there is little that's $$ quantifiable beyond informed opinion. As for financial stability, there's probably a shakeout coming and LG has deeper pockets. However, they also have some brains and can spin off the solar business if things for solar go in the toilet. OTOH, SolarWorld may appear an attractive takeover candidate in any shakeout, maybe even by LG. Who knows ? I kind of doubt SolarWorld will cease to exist entirely. At least their mfg. facilities will probably be around for awhile if only with someone else's name on them.

On price, looking at it from most bang for the buck while holding other variables like most cost effective as f(array size) constant, The LG premium (and more to the point its NPV) needs to be assessed in terms of what looks like a dart throw as to the likelihood of needing service and the probability of getting it with respect to who's going to survive the (likely, but not certain) shakeout. Added to that, and at a more local level, might be the long term viability of the vendor. Hopefully they're stable, but there are no absolute guarantees. Somewhat countering all that is what looks like - at this time anyway - the relatively high reliability of solar panels with most (and few in #) failures happening very early on, maybe indicating a reduced probability of needing service down the road.

While not implying SolarWorld or anyone will fail or survive, perhaps one of many ways to evaluate your decision comes down to whether you consider the probability of a SolarWorld system failure and needing service with the attendant PITA and lost revenue of a down system to be lower than the probability of not getting service because Solar World failed and LG survived. Or, what if they both tank ? Or ???

[NorCalX]

Paralysis by analysis was definitely setting in last night.

Was reading some pvmagazine articles and other financial stuff (not my area of expertise either)

Dated November 3rd

*********
Indeed, in its 2014 earnings report, released this March, it stated, "If courts should decide that the silicon supplier is entitled to damages from our subsidiary SolarWorld Industries Sachsen GmbH [formerly Deutsche Solar GmbH], this would have a considerable negative impact on the company’s liquidity position, possibly even threatening the company’s continued existence."

Read more: http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/deta...#ixzz3rxFS0C55

*********

[Yaryman]

After sleeping on it I'm going with Solar World.

Also...if Solarworld does go down I'll have some good company for the solar panel riots that ensue heh

Great, now I need to worry about the Solar Panel Riots.

Though a google search for that term leads me to believe those have only happened in China so far.
Turns out the locals got pissed at the local solar panel plant for "dumping toxic levels of flouride into local waters, killing large numbers of fish and some pigs."

http://www.businessinsider.com/a-chinese-solar-plant-is-shut-down-after-4-days-of-violent-protests-over-pollution-2011-9

When does it end?

First it was Soylent Green is people.
Now it's the Solar Panel Riots.

[sensij]

Some history may help put the decision in perspective. Below are the lists of top 10 solar panel manufactures (by shipped MW) in 2009 and 2014. Over that 5 year period, many players are the same. Suntech (#2 in 2009) went bankrupt in 2013 (US division in 2014), but continues to make panels. Q-cells ran into trouble and was bought out by Hanwha. Neither LG nor SolarWorld are part of either list, but maybe looking just at shipments into the US market would look a little differently. Bosch was another significant global player that shut down operations in 2013, selling some of its assets to Solarworld. Here is a more complete list of companies in trouble over that time.

This is just 5 years... do you really think it is possible to know who will be around supporting (almost unenforceable) warranties in 10?


2014 top ten
1 Trina Solar
2 Yingli Green Energy
3 Canadian Solar
4 Hanwha SolarOne
5 Jinko Solar
6 JA Solar
7 Sharp
8 ReneSola
9 First Solar
10 Kyocera

2009 top ten
1100.0 MW First Solar
704.0 MW Suntech
595.0 MW Sharp
586.0 MW Q-Cells
525.3 MW Yingli
520.0 MW JA Solar
400.0 MW Kyocera
399.0 MW Trina Solar
397.0 MW SunPower
368.0 MW Gintech

[J.P.M.]

Turns out the locals got pissed at the local solar panel plant for "dumping toxic levels of flouride into local waters, killing large numbers of fish and some pigs."

But the pigs had better dental checkups.