cost per watt for northern california (bay area) with LG panels

[imafan]

Hello,
Browsing the forum seems to indicate market rate is $3.5/w before credits. I'm getting a few quotes with lowest around $3.75/w for LG panel for 4.5kwh-5.5kwh systems for the east bay (union city). For those in the know or recently installed, is this what I should expect as a the market rate for northern california installation?

Also, quote from 5* installer are about .50-$1/w more for similar setup. I don't mind paying slightly more for highly rated installer, but don't have a reference on how much more is reasonable. what would be a reasonable increase?

Thanks!
Billy

lowest quotes below. others are between $3.75->$4.75
system 1:
LG 300
panels 19
inverter: unspecified
output: 5.7kwh
cost: 21,329
c/w: $3.74

System 2
panel:LG 305
count: 15
output: 4.58kwh
inverter: SMA America
cost: $17,200
c/w: $3.76

[J.P.M.]

What is your annual usage on a monthly basis ?

Have you run PVWatts to confirm the size that makes the most sense for what you want/need with respect to your usage ?

[solardreamer]

Hello,
Browsing the forum seems to indicate market rate is $3.5/w before credits. I'm getting a few quotes with lowest around $3.75/w for LG panel for 4.5kwh-5.5kwh systems for the east bay (union city). For those in the know or recently installed, is this what I should expect as a the market rate for northern california installation?

Also, quote from 5* installer are about .50-$1/w more for similar setup. I don't mind paying slightly more for highly rated installer, but don't have a reference on how much more is reasonable. what would be a reasonable increase?

Thanks!
Billy

lowest quotes below. others are between $3.75->$4.75
system 1:
LG 300
panels 19
inverter: unspecified
output: 5.7kwh
cost: 21,329
c/w: $3.74

System 2
panel:LG 305
count: 15
output: 4.58kwh
inverter: SMA America
cost: $17,200
c/w: $3.76

In the SF Bay Area, timing seems to be important factor for pricing. It might be tough to get the lowest price now since more people are looking to get installation done by end of the year for tax credit. For your reference, I signed contract for 6.16kw SolarWorld 280/Enphase m250 system in early Sep at $3.3/w but I doubt I could get that now for installation by end of year.

[Yaryman]

Hello,
Browsing the forum seems to indicate market rate is $3.5/w before credits. I'm getting a few quotes with lowest around $3.75/w for LG panel for 4.5kwh-5.5kwh systems for the east bay (union city).
For those in the know or recently installed, is this what I should expect as a the market rate for northern california installation?

Were you going with LG panels because of the size or you felt they were best?

I was able to get a lower price in the East Bay by going with SolarWorld 280's.

[imafan]

Were you going with LG panels because of the size or you felt they were best?

I was able to get a lower price in the East Bay by going with SolarWorld 280's.

I want something between Sunpower and china made panels that I can use to compare apple-apple quotes. SolarWorld and LG are in similar class based on what I gather, but I have more confident with LG more likely be around in 20 years than SolarWorld. Had a few solarworld quotes but they weren't cheaper than the LG from same installer when i asked for a re-quote using LG.
----
WRT to doing energy homework - My historical usage is below for a 1900sqrt single family home and has been consistently in Tier 3 PGE rate. I've done most energy reduction I could without going too extreme. Things like additional insulation(helps greatly with being cool in summer and warm in winter), cfl/led bulbs, no computer running 24/7, consciously turn off light, no AC system hook up, winter thermostat schedule for 69deg daytime, 65deg nighttime (ancient gas central heat tho).

I feel conscious/held back about adding hobbies that use additional electricity (want a ~1500g pond, some indoor growlight/hydrophonic, have a 1 car garage workshop). I think a 4.5kwdc (~100%) will fit current need and some room to grow into or use some of the Tier 1 as needed but also exploring a 120% option as well (or is 120% a better choice? i've heard of buyer remorse of not upsizing but not really done economic calculation. price difference is about ~$3k after tax).
year total usage totalBill/usage
2010 6947 kWh
2011 5831 kWh
2012 6739 kWh $0.17/kWh
2013 7022 kWh $0.18/kWh
2014 6478 kWh $0.17/kWh
2018 (so far) 4412.5 kWh avg 0.20/kWh

I'm not sure how to read pvwatt result yet but it shows 6,681 kWh AC per Year (energy value $ 1,204) with Cost of Electricity Generated by System 0.14 $/kWh @ $3.75/Wdc.
----

sorry about the ramble, now two real question.
1. If installation can be done by 1st week of December, what's likely hood that final interconnection get completed in 2015? One of the national solar consultant said that it's not currently possible to complete installation and get 2015 tax credit because 'No company can promise "final interconnection" this year, because you've already missed the deadline'. Is what she said true? some installer said it's still possible if I move fast (some quote installation 11/15- 11/30) but if it's highly unlikely to complete in 2015, i can wait after the rush yearend and likely get better $/w.

2. Do kids use more or less electricity as they grow up? currently have a 3 & 5 but not sure how I should account for their future usage in addition to the hobbies.

[J.P.M.]

I want something between Sunpower and china made panels that I can use to compare apple-apple quotes. SolarWorld and LG are in similar class based on what I gather, but I have more confident with LG more likely be around in 20 years than SolarWorld. Had a few solarworld quotes but they weren't cheaper than the LG from same installer when i asked for a re-quote using LG.
----
WRT to doing energy homework - My historical usage is below for a 1900sqrt single family home and has been consistently in Tier 3 PGE rate. I've done most energy reduction I could without going too extreme. Things like additional insulation(helps greatly with being cool in summer and warm in winter), cfl/led bulbs, no computer running 24/7, consciously turn off light, no AC system hook up, winter thermostat schedule for 69deg daytime, 65deg nighttime (ancient gas central heat tho).

I feel conscious/held back about adding hobbies that use additional electricity (want a ~1500g pond, some indoor growlight/hydrophonic, have a 1 car garage workshop). I think a 4.5kwdc (~100%) will fit current need and some room to grow into or use some of the Tier 1 as needed but also exploring a 120% option as well (or is 120% a better choice? i've heard of buyer remorse of not upsizing but not really done economic calculation. price difference is about ~$3k after tax).
year total usage totalBill/usage
2010 6947 kWh
2011 5831 kWh
2012 6739 kWh $0.17/kWh
2013 7022 kWh $0.18/kWh
2014 6478 kWh $0.17/kWh
2018 (so far) 4412.5 kWh avg 0.20/kWh

I'm not sure how to read pvwatt result yet but it shows 6,681 kWh AC per Year (energy value $ 1,204) with Cost of Electricity Generated by System 0.14 $/kWh @ $3.75/Wdc.
----

sorry about the ramble, now two real question.
1. If installation can be done by 1st week of December, what's likely hood that final interconnection get completed in 2015? One of the national solar consultant said that it's not currently possible to complete installation and get 2015 tax credit because 'No company can promise "final interconnection" this year, because you've already missed the deadline'. Is what she said true? some installer said it's still possible if I move fast (some quote installation 11/15- 11/30) but if it's highly unlikely to complete in 2015, i can wait after the rush yearend and likely get better $/w.

2. Do kids use more or less electricity as they grow up? currently have a 3 & 5 but not sure how I should account for their future usage in addition to the hobbies.

On PVWatts, what system size, tilt, azimuth and source for data are you using ? Also, decrease the system losses to 8 -10 % or so from the 14% default. If a 4.5 kW system, that 6,681 seems a bit low, but not terribly so.

On the "deadline: You have until 12/31/2016 to have a system up/running for the 30% fed. ITC. If up/running by 12/21/2015 you get to spread the tax credit over 2015 and 2016, with any excess credit carryover from 2015 useable in 2016. Spreading it over 2 tax years gives a bit more flexibility in tax planning and sooner use of the credit. There in no tax credit for 2015 separate from 2016 in that sense. The "deadline" installers are referring to is probably theirs for scheduling.

Don't be stampeded.

On the other hand, it's probably iffy that you will get a system installed by year's end if it has not been sized, signed for and designed by now, but that's installer workload, not a tax issue as such.

One other thing: The 5% net metering cap is beginning to perhaps become more of a consideration. Once the 5 % cap is reached, NEM 2.0 will be in effect. It will probably not be as good a sweetheart deal as the current net metering agreement.

Kids and everyone else will use more electricity if not controlled. Like everyone else, they will use less if shown good example. Cattle prods help instill fragile habits.

[imafan]

On PVWatts, what system size, tilt, azimuth and source for data are you using ? Also, decrease the system losses to 8 -10 % or so from the 14% default. If a 4.5 kW system, that 6,681 seems a bit low, but not terribly so.

Here are the parameters I used. tilt and azimuth taken from a sungevity quote (roof pitch & roof azimuth). 8% loss yield 7,280kwh AC. is this equivalent to a quote's 1st year production?

Weather Data Source
(TMY3) HAYWARD AIR TERM, CA 6.4 mi
Latitude 37.67° N
Longitude 122.12° W
PV System Specifications (Residential)
DC System Size 4.5 kW
Module Type Premium
Array Type Fixed (roof mount)
Array Tilt 23°
Array Azimuth 143°
System Losses 8%
Inverter Efficiency 96%
DC to AC Size Ratio 1.1
Initial Economic Comparison
Average Cost of Electricity Purchased
from Utility 0.18 $/kWh
Initial Cost 3.75 $/Wdc
Cost of Electricity Generated by System 0.13 $/kWh

[Yaryman]

A install can still be done this year.

Here is the timeline for my install done this September in Brentwood. ( East Bay Area, not LA )

Met with installer on 9/8.

Screwed around with another installer who was going to take 5 to 8 weeks for the install and use cheaper panels to match price. ( about $3.6/W )

Gave go ahead on 9/14 to installer for 18 SolarWorld panels and M250 Enpahse inverters.

Installation was done on 9/28.

City of Brentwood inspection done on 10/6.

10/7 - PG&E net metering E-6 application sent in by installer. ( If I've read the information correctly, you need the E-6 application in before 12/31/15 or you can't get E-6 TOU )

7AM on 10/12 PG&E gave the OK and I was on the grid.

Here's the results of the install.

http://pvoutput.org/list.jsp?userid=45408

[J.P.M.]

That Annual output # seems about right and is a long term yearly average estimate of what a system with the input parameters used might produce per year. That output will vary from yr./yr., just like and in response to, the weather.

It has nothing to do with what you might use.

As for the probability of an as yet unsigned install being completed in the remaining 2 months of this year: 8 weeks might be possible, and I wish it so, but given the year end rush, and also, the usual stormier weather likely during any Nov./Dec. period, and also if El Nino perhaps reducing the # of sunny (workable) days still more, I'd hope for the best, but don't be surprised if it doesn't happen.

Also, on that $0.13/kWh that PVWatts puked out as a cost for electricity produced by the system: Watch out ! Read the fine print.

See the PVWatts help screens for information about how that $0.13/kWh is derived - particularly the assumptions used. This is an example of what I mean when I write about time frames, cost of money, life cycle costing, etc., and people's ignorance and their desire to believe stuff without checking to see if it applies to their circumstances or makes any sense at all.

A lot of the assumptions in that PVWatts # may not apply. For one thing, and for starters, that analysis assumes a loan. Also, a 25 year analysis period (and not to dictate your future, but odds are you may be moving before the end of 25 years). An LOCE or life cycle cost analysis with different (and perhaps more appropriate) cost/financial numbers for your, or anyone's particular circumstances might get closer to ~ $0.16-$0.20/kWh for the cost of power produced by a system. Still not too bad, but not the rose colored glasses version that peddlers are so fond of quoting.

PVWatts is a good 1st cut tool for sizing, but I take NREL to task for painting such a rosy picture of financial possibilities without at least explaining or warning users of the minefield that bad or unrealistic assumptions can lead to. At least use numbers that are a bit more conservative and put the burden of proving NREL's numbers too conservative on the peddlers to prove them (the NREL #'s) wrong. Seems the worst that can happen in that case might be that some people get exposed to something closer to reality and maybe fewer people get screwed quite so badly. The choice is still theirs.

Point is, don't believe everything you see unless you understand what you're reading, and then, only after making sure you understand the assumptions and conditions used in the analysis, and that they apply to your situation. Otherwise, you might be making a mistake in assuming what you are considering is in your best long term economic interest.

If such things are not important in your case, forget what I just wrote.

As usual, take what you want of the above. Scrap the rest.

[solardreamer]

I want something between Sunpower and china made panels that I can use to compare apple-apple quotes. SolarWorld and LG are in similar class based on what I gather, but I have more confident with LG more likely be around in 20 years than SolarWorld. Had a few solarworld quotes but they weren't cheaper than the LG from same installer when i asked for a re-quote using LG.
----
WRT to doing energy homework - My historical usage is below for a 1900sqrt single family home and has been consistently in Tier 3 PGE rate. I've done most energy reduction I could without going too extreme. Things like additional insulation(helps greatly with being cool in summer and warm in winter), cfl/led bulbs, no computer running 24/7, consciously turn off light, no AC system hook up, winter thermostat schedule for 69deg daytime, 65deg nighttime (ancient gas central heat tho).

I feel conscious/held back about adding hobbies that use additional electricity (want a ~1500g pond, some indoor growlight/hydrophonic, have a 1 car garage workshop). I think a 4.5kwdc (~100%) will fit current need and some room to grow into or use some of the Tier 1 as needed but also exploring a 120% option as well (or is 120% a better choice? i've heard of buyer remorse of not upsizing but not really done economic calculation. price difference is about ~$3k after tax).
year total usage totalBill/usage
2010 6947 kWh
2011 5831 kWh
2012 6739 kWh $0.17/kWh
2013 7022 kWh $0.18/kWh
2014 6478 kWh $0.17/kWh
2018 (so far) 4412.5 kWh avg 0.20/kWh

I'm not sure how to read pvwatt result yet but it shows 6,681 kWh AC per Year (energy value $ 1,204) with Cost of Electricity Generated by System 0.14 $/kWh @ $3.75/Wdc.
----

sorry about the ramble, now two real question.
1. If installation can be done by 1st week of December, what's likely hood that final interconnection get completed in 2015? One of the national solar consultant said that it's not currently possible to complete installation and get 2015 tax credit because 'No company can promise "final interconnection" this year, because you've already missed the deadline'. Is what she said true? some installer said it's still possible if I move fast (some quote installation 11/15- 11/30) but if it's highly unlikely to complete in 2015, i can wait after the rush yearend and likely get better $/w.

2. Do kids use more or less electricity as they grow up? currently have a 3 & 5 but not sure how I should account for their future usage in addition to the hobbies.

1. Getting installation done by year end depends largely on how soon the installer can start installation (the actual installation should only take 2-3 days), how fast your city can complete inspection and how fast your utility can approve interconnection. Under optimal conditions, you can get everything done in 3-4 weeks.

2. Short answer is yes based on my experience. They will eat more and use more of most things. Things like more frequent use of dish washer and dryer.

[ulrich]

I'm using a group called Sunwork (http://www.solarreviews.com/installe...jects-reviews/).

They will definitely *not* be able to finish the project this year (I started talking to them in September, and my install date is currently mid-December), but they might be worth considering.

They have an interesting business model: They're a non-profit that is trying to encourage usage of solar power. As such, they are providing a lower cost option by using volunteers for labor and cater specifically to entities that would otherwise have less of an incentive to install solar.

In the case of homeowners, this means they specifically cater to people with electric bills of less than $100 a month (because the payoff period is extended for households with low energy usage).

To give you an idea of the potential savings, the quote for my install is $11,950 (before tax credit) for a 4.48 kW system - REC panels and SolarEdge inverter and optimizers included. That's about $2.67 per kW.

I'm not sure what areas in the Bay Area they currently serve, and whether your bill qualifies you for their service, but it may be worth your while to contact them.

Note that they are also fairly restrictive on the types of roofs they'll install on (because of the use of volunteers) - see their website for details.

[dannieboiz]

I actually got quotes closer to the $3.50-$3.60 mark. I would shop around a little bit.

Most companies needed contract signed 2 weeks ago to guarantee completion by December 31st when I was shopping. Remember, with the El Nino year here we're expecting lots of rains so that would definitely put a stall on installation time.

[imafan]

I actually got quotes closer to the $3.50-$3.60 mark. I would shop around a little bit.

Most companies needed contract signed 2 weeks ago to guarantee completion by December 31st when I was shopping. Remember, with the El Nino year here we're expecting lots of rains so that would definitely put a stall on installation time.

I negotiated for LG300 and string inverter to $3.57/w. Installer's preference is enphase for $3.95/w but is $.38/w a typical premium for microinverter? He mentioned that he typically finish installation in 30 days (~2 days for design, ~2 weeks for city permit, then installation) .Will meet this wednesday for a onsite survey.

[dannieboiz]

I negotiated for LG300 and string inverter to $3.57/w. Installer's preference is enphase for $3.95/w but is $.38/w a typical premium for microinverter? He mentioned that he typically finish installation in 30 days (~2 days for design, ~2 weeks for city permit, then installation) .Will meet this wednesday for a onsite survey.

The quotes I mentioned was LG305 with ANY microinverter of my choice Enphase or SolarEdge. I didn't go with LG panels cause the price difference was not worth it for me. Paid $3.30/w for 26 Solar World 280 mono with SolarEdge

[imafan]

I'm using a group called Sunwork (http://www.solarreviews.com/installe...jects-reviews/).

Note that they are also fairly restrictive on the types of roofs they'll install on (because of the use of volunteers) - see their website for details.

I looked into sunwork before but they don't work on cement tile.