Home solar panel system opinion

[downshift00]

So, I am a newbie to the solar world. I have done some homework and met with a couple companies to get quotes. Couple of questions for you guys that have experience with this:

1) Should I get a system that produces a little more than what I am currently using to make sure it covers situations where I might end up using more power down the road? I'm talking like a 9.8kw system vs 7.8kw here. I recently bought a Chevy Volt so I will be charging at home at about 10kw a day. The 9.8kw system will still put out more than I am currently using by about 1-2k a year.

2) Got a quote from Direct Energy Solar (I'm in NJ by the way) on a 9.8kw system. The system is approx $37k, after giving them the tax credit back, the loan payment will be $185 a month on a 20 year purchase loan at 5.9%. This allows me to get all the SRECS as well with Direct Energy Solar, they estimate it will be approx $160 a month and gradually go down over the15 years. They use enphase microinverters.

3) Quote from Solar City. Cost is approx 40k loan financed through them for a 7.8kw system. Financed will be about $25k (12k credit + 3k discount for them taking the SRECS) Monthly payment is $145 for first year before I give them the $12k tax credit money, then the system drops down to $93 a month and then goes up 2.9% a year for 30 years. With this system I will not get the SRECS.


So to me it seems like the Direct Energy Solar system (9.8kw) is the one to go with?


Thanks,

Scott

[gvl]

What electric rate options are available to you from your POCO? If Time-Of-Use is an option with a Volt you may be able to get away with a system that generates less than you consume and still have a low monthly bill or even 0.

[downshift00]

My electric company only has one type of residential rate. No time of use if that is what you mean?

What does that matter, just curious?

What electric rate options are available to you from your POCO? If Time-Of-Use is an option with a Volt you may be able to get away with a system that generates less than you consume and still have a low monthly bill or even 0.

[gvl]

My electric company only has one type of residential rate. No time of use if that is what you mean?

What does that matter, just curious?

Under TOU they use a meter that registers not only how much energy is used but also when it is used. The rates are usually higher during peak hours (day) and lower during off-peak hours (night). If you can shift your consumption to off-peak hours and during the day you have excess generation that you export you get bill credits at a higher price per kWh that you then use to cover your off-peak usage, such as charging your car at night, at a lower price per kWh. So you can have a system that generates less than you use and still have enough credits from on-peak generation to offset your bill to 0. This is just a basic idea of how this works. Google net-metering.

[downshift00]

Yes I know what TOU is and my company doesn't have it. They got rid of it little while back. They do net metering though. Just same rates night or day, of about 18 cents with delivery and generation.

Under TOU they use a meter that registers not only how much energy is used but also when it is used. The rates are usually higher during peak hours (day) and lower during off-peak hours (night). If you can shift your consumption to off-peak hours and during the day you have excess generation that you export you get bill credits at a higher price per kWh that you then use to cover your off-peak usage, such as charging your car at night, at a lower price per kWh. So you can have a system that generates less than you use and still have enough credits from on-peak generation to offset your bill to 0. This is just a basic idea of how this works. Google net-metering.

[gvl]

Yes I know what TOU is and my company doesn't have it. They got rid of it little while back. They do net metering though. Just same rates night or day, of about 18 cents with delivery and generation.

Is this a tiered rate or you pay 18c regardless of how much you consume?

[downshift00]

It's tiered, 18 cents is the cheapest tier 1. It goes up from there.

Is this a tiered rate or you pay 18c regardless of how much you consume?

[gvl]

It's tiered, 18 cents is the cheapest tier 1. It goes up from there.

The question you should ask yourself is if you ever going to get a return on investment for solar that covers your tier 1 usage. The answer is usually never. A good strategy for tiered rates is to size your solar so that your usage is well within the tier 1 rate with solar so you get a faster ROI. 0-offset or better is a beautiful idea but it will take a long time to get your money back

As for pricing, it's usually best to operate using $/watt numbers before any incentives to get a sense if you're getting a good deal. Solar City and the likes are usually the priciest way to get solar.

[downshift00]

If my bill with using my current provider is $140-150 a month on average. The rates will be going up, they already have been going up 3-5% over the past few years here. Payments on the 20yr loan is $185 and I would be getting the SRECS on the 9.8kw system which in NJ is over $165 right now a month it seems and also money back from over production of what I don't end up using. I should end up being in the positive every month for quite some time. How is that not a good ROI? The system should pay for itself.

The question you should ask yourself is if you ever going to get a return on investment for solar that covers your tier 1 usage. The answer is usually never. A good strategy for tiered rates is to size your solar so that your usage is well within the tier 1 rate with solar so you get a faster ROI. 0-offset or better is a beautiful idea but it will take a long time to get your money back

As for pricing, it's usually best to operate using $/watt numbers before any incentives to get a sense if you're getting a good deal. Solar City and the likes are usually the priciest way to get solar.

[lkstaack]

If my bill with using my current provider is $140-150 a month on average. The rates will be going up, they already have been going up 3-5% over the past few years here. Payments on the 20yr loan is $185 and I would be getting the SRECS on the 9.8kw system which in NJ is over $165 right now a month it seems and also money back from over production of what I don't end up using. I should end up being in the positive every month for quite some time. How is that not a good ROI? The system should pay for itself.

Sizing your system is critical. There are a few thoughts of how much of your usage you want to cover. The general consensus is to cover everything above Tier 1 and don't over produce. Why? Because solar is expensive! Your POCO's Teir 1 is probably cheaper than your costs to produce solar.

Crunch the numbers. Determine how many kWhs you will produce w/i 20 years and divide it by how much it will cost you. Compare it to your Tier 1 rate. Also, look at how much your POCO will buy any energy you produce. You'll probably find that it will cost you more to produce than the POCO will buy it for.

[gvl]

Regarding your quotes, if I'm reading the OP correctly, Solar City wants 40,000/7,800 = $5.13/watt. If this is a standard rooftop installation - ouch, at least considering current pricing in SoCal. Your quote from Direct Energy Solar, is that $37,000 after the incentives? If so it is ouch too.

[gvl]

If my bill with using my current provider is $140-150 a month on average. The rates will be going up, they already have been going up 3-5% over the past few years here. Payments on the 20yr loan is $185 and I would be getting the SRECS on the 9.8kw system which in NJ is over $165 right now a month it seems and also money back from over production of what I don't end up using. I should end up being in the positive every month for quite some time. How is that not a good ROI? The system should pay for itself.

I'm not familiar with SRECS, any chance they will be discontinued or reduced dramatically over time? Something to think about.

[downshift00]

No, both quotes are before the 30% credit. Financed will be about 26k on both systems approx, but the solar city one is actually a 2k less of a system, 7.8kw vs 9.8kw.

Regarding your quotes, if I'm reading the OP correctly, Solar City wants 40,000/7,800 = $5.13/watt. If this is a standard rooftop installation - ouch, at least considering current pricing in SoCal. Your quote from Direct Energy Solar, is that $37,000 after the incentives? If so it is ouch too.

[downshift00]

NJ has the SREC http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_R...gy_Certificate . They buy have to give you credit on the open market for whatever your tolal system produces, it's separate from what your overproduction is. So for every 1kw your system generates, they give you approx what its trading on the open market as seen here currently in NJ http://www.srectrade.com/srec_markets/new_jersey for the 1st 15 years of solar production. It phases out completely by years 15.

I'm not familiar with SRECS, any chance they will be discontinued or reduced dramatically over time? Something to think about.

[downshift00]

If my current kw usage is 9.6kw a year and the system production covers that amount plus a little extra for less than what I will be paying out of pocket to the electric company how is this bad? I'm trying to understand why I wouln't want to cover all of my electrical usage?

I did an approx 20yr cost with my current electric company using 9.6kw a year with an avg increase of 3.2% a year . It came out to $47k for electric company and $44k for solar. BUT that doesn't take into the SRECs I would be getting for the first 15 years that they estimate at 18k over 15 years. If you take that into account (44k-18k) that is $26k for producing. This also doesn't include any over production I might have, lets say 1kw a year at a buyback rate of .07 a kw isn't much, but it's still $70 x 20 years = $1400. I'm not going to figure that in though due to the solar panels losing .5% efficiency a year.

So to summarize, that's either $47k for currently electric company or $26k in costs for solar for 20 years. Am I missing something still?

Sizing your system is critical. There are a few thoughts of how much of your usage you want to cover. The general consensus is to cover everything above Tier 1 and don't over produce. Why? Because solar is expensive! Your POCO's Teir 1 is probably cheaper than your costs to produce solar.

Crunch the numbers. Determine how many kWhs you will produce w/i 20 years and divide it by how much it will cost you. Compare it to your Tier 1 rate. Also, look at how much your POCO will buy any energy you produce. You'll probably find that it will cost you more to produce than the POCO will buy it for.