Estimating future usage and system sizing

[russ]

Let me say that I HATE PM's. I had to block PM's because I was flooded with them. Help me this. Solve that, Tell me something else. I will answer questions publicly on the forums, for all to learn from. If you want a "personal answer" then my rate is $50/hr, 1 hr min, 1 hr increments.

The mods use PM's to pass data back and forth, but I don't have any need for secret chats.

100% agreed! I ignore any PM asking for help - some love to demand special service.

[Mike90250]

No, it does not work. I can read the PM, it even lets me type a response, but when I try to send the PM the following message is received:

To be able to send PMs your post count must be 10 or greater.

You currently have 3 posts and you can send PMs to following users only:
Jason, Mike90250, Naptown, solar pete, russ

This is just as the owner / mods have set the board up. They must have their reasons. I personally find this board very unwelcoming, you even have to log in to watch a picture someone has posted.

Let me say that I HATE PM's. I had to block PM's because I was flooded with them. Help me this. Solve that, Tell me something else. I will answer questions publicly on the forums, for all to learn from. If you want a "personal answer" then my rate is $50/hr, 1 hr min, 1 hr increments.

The mods use PM's to pass data back and forth, but I don't have any need for secret chats.

[russ]

You'll have to let me know what kind of automation is going to do this. Typically controlling power to the unit is not going to program a start-up too. On the other hand, if you are referring to high-line HA with selective drivers for "smart" appliances, that is well outside the boundaries of economical sense.

You have that 100% correct!

[control4userguy]

...start to consider some kind of home automation so you are able to turn on the dishwasher, washer and dryer in the most beneficial time.

You'll have to let me know what kind of automation is going to do this. Typically controlling power to the unit is not going to program a start-up too. On the other hand, if you are referring to high-line HA with selective drivers for "smart" appliances, that is well outside the boundaries of economical sense.

[SunEagle]

No, it does not work. I can read the PM, it even lets me type a response, but when I try to send the PM the following message is received:

To be able to send PMs your post count must be 10 or greater.

You currently have 3 posts and you can send PMs to following users only:
Jason, Mike90250, Naptown, solar pete, russ

This is just as the owner / mods have set the board up. They must have their reasons. I personally find this board very unwelcoming, you even have to log in to watch a picture someone has posted.

The Admins set the PM requirement of 10 posts to keep out the "fly by nights" and "spammers" from polluting this forum. If someone is really interested in getting information then it is real easy to roll up your post count by asking questions in the related Forum threads.

I for one like this restriction since I have seen PM's being abused on other Forums.

[cbeam]

No, it does not work. I can read the PM, it even lets me type a response, but when I try to send the PM the following message is received:

To be able to send PMs your post count must be 10 or greater.

You currently have 3 posts and you can send PMs to following users only:
Jason, Mike90250, Naptown, solar pete, russ

This is just as the owner / mods have set the board up. They must have their reasons. I personally find this board very unwelcoming, you even have to log in to watch a picture someone has posted.

[ver2go]

I tried to send a PM, here is what the forum SW has to say:
"Note: Until your post count is 10 you will be able to send PMs to Staff only."
I am a very infrequent user of this site, not sure if I will go to 10 posts anytime soon.

Did you happen to get my PM, if so can you reply to it?

Thanks!

[ver2go]

I tried to send a PM, here is what the forum SW has to say:
"Note: Until your post count is 10 you will be able to send PMs to Staff only."
I am a very infrequent user of this site, not sure if I will go to 10 posts anytime soon.

Thanks. I need 2 more after this one. So maybe I'll get the count up and send you one for you to reply to.

[cbeam]

I tried to send a PM, here is what the forum SW has to say:
"Note: Until your post count is 10 you will be able to send PMs to Staff only."
I am a very infrequent user of this site, not sure if I will go to 10 posts anytime soon.

[ver2go]

Let me know if you want more info about my system or my installer.

Hi,

I would be interested. Before the New Year I reached out to a few companies, as the folks here confirmed, the prices were a bit north. I'm ready to get new quotes again and negotiate for better pricing. I wasn't too pleased with my initial batch of installers so I would like to give yours a try. I

[ver2go]

I I can PM the name of the install company they are located in the East Bay. You might try to contact them directly, cut out the middle man and all that. I did my install for $3.60/w on a prepaid lease last May. I had an easy install panels on a composite low pitch roof with a single orientation, room in the panel, short conduit runs etc.

Would you mind PM'ing me? Or confirm/deny if they are YES?

[J.P.M.]

I just finished the install of a 6kW system on the upper Peninsula near San Francisco Airport.

We are low electricity users (family of four, average 425 kWh per month), and for years I did not pursue solar because my calculated return on investment was way beyond 10 years.
Then two things happened: I got an EV (Nissan Leaf) and I found an organization installing Solar for well below $3 per kW, which is far below what competitors quote.
Including cost of service upgrade (new main electric panel) and considering savings by replacing one ICE-car with the EV I calculate now an ROI within 6-7 years.

Solar is now up and running, the installer did an excellent job, and the average daily production is well above what PV Watts calculated, which means to me that the system performs very well (and the sunny January is definitely also a contributing factor). Of course I do not have enough data points to see how the system will perform over the years and if the solar system is slightly over- or undersized.

A few hints you might find useful:
Understand your current energy consumption. The PG&E website provides the usage patterns for your house (assuming you do have a smart meter). I also installed a Rainforest-Eagle Smart Meter Gateway and get real time consumption data on my computer if I want to. And I use a Kill-a-Watt to measure energy consumption of devices. I used this to identify where we wasted energy and made some changes to the house (LED lights instead of incandescent, switch to turn off the entertainment center instead of just stand-by, etc).
With Solar and EV you will probably want to switch to a TOU (Time of Use) tariff. If you do that and are technically interested (as I am) start to consider some kind of home automation so you are able to turn on the dishwasher, washer and dryer in the most beneficial time.
If you get an EV you definitely want to get away from the standard tiered rate system. You'll end up paying almost 40c per kWh to PG&E charging the car as your consumption will go into tier 4 really fast (Don't ask why I know that )

Let me know if you want more info about my system or my installer.

Congrads. That you seem to have more production than PVWatts estimated is probably more of a function of 2 things: 1.) Using default inputs, PVWatts usually underestmates output. 2.) The weather is not the same as what PVWatts used.

Your thread is welcome confirmation of some of what's been discussed here for some time. Welcome to the party.

[cbeam]

I just finished the install of a 6kW system on the upper Peninsula near San Francisco Airport.

We are low electricity users (family of four, average 425 kWh per month), and for years I did not pursue solar because my calculated return on investment was way beyond 10 years.
Then two things happened: I got an EV (Nissan Leaf) and I found an organization installing Solar for well below $3 per kW, which is far below what competitors quote.
Including cost of service upgrade (new main electric panel) and considering savings by replacing one ICE-car with the EV I calculate now an ROI within 6-7 years.

Solar is now up and running, the installer did an excellent job, and the average daily production is well above what PV Watts calculated, which means to me that the system performs very well (and the sunny January is definitely also a contributing factor). Of course I do not have enough data points to see how the system will perform over the years and if the solar system is slightly over- or undersized.

A few hints you might find useful:
Understand your current energy consumption. The PG&E website provides the usage patterns for your house (assuming you do have a smart meter). I also installed a Rainforest-Eagle Smart Meter Gateway and get real time consumption data on my computer if I want to. And I use a Kill-a-Watt to measure energy consumption of devices. I used this to identify where we wasted energy and made some changes to the house (LED lights instead of incandescent, switch to turn off the entertainment center instead of just stand-by, etc).
With Solar and EV you will probably want to switch to a TOU (Time of Use) tariff. If you do that and are technically interested (as I am) start to consider some kind of home automation so you are able to turn on the dishwasher, washer and dryer in the most beneficial time.
If you get an EV you definitely want to get away from the standard tiered rate system. You'll end up paying almost 40c per kWh to PG&E charging the car as your consumption will go into tier 4 really fast (Don't ask why I know that )

Let me know if you want more info about my system or my installer.

[Mike848]

When I was getting quotes for my system in S. California, I was told by all 5 installers I interviewed that SCE will not allow me to "over-size" my system. SCE will look at your last 12 months of electric usage and use that as a base-line to determine whether a proposed system is adequate or over-sized. If PG&E is the same way, you may encounter problems from them if you try to over-size your system for the possibility of a future EV or a growing family. I purchased an EV a few months before I started my solar project so I needed to install a larger system than what my historical 12 month usage would have shown I needed. My installer asked me to provide proof of the EV purchase that they can then show to SCE to justify my system size. BTW, my application was submitted in mid-December and I have yet to hear back from SCE.

[prhamilton]

I made the 'mistake' of trying to size my system to my consumption when I installed solar last year. I was targeting 80% of my usage on a per kWh basis. After getting about 8 months worth of billing I am finding that I make about 105% of my usage on a cost basis. I don't have an EV but I think that would skew the diff even higher.

I am in the North Bay and I used Sungevity. I was really happy with them but the thing to realize is they don't do the installs, they subcontract out the work to a network of installers. Some installers are better then others. My neighbor also used sungevity and got a different installer who had to make 3 or 4 followup visits to correct problems, they were not happy with the process. I would say that is the biggest problem with Sungevity. I can PM the name of the install company they are located in the East Bay. You might try to contact them directly, cut out the middle man and all that. I did my install for $3.60/w on a prepaid lease last May. I had an easy install panels on a composite low pitch roof with a single orientation, room in the panel, short conduit runs etc.