Looking to go solar...everything looking good, am I missing something?

[HX_Guy]

Hey guys, new member here and I'm interested in adding solar power to our home in Phoenix, AZ. I've considered it for a while but just in the last few days got serious and actually started getting some prices/specs/etc.

Originally I was thinking a solar lease which I got a quote for $175/month for a 10kW system from Solar City. Then in my research, I found that for the same amount, I could actually finance a system over 12 years which I would own and it seems like a much much better way to go unless I'm missing something?

I'm going by the data from another local guy but he got a 10.71kW system for a price of $32,000 minus $9,600 Fed rebate minus $1,000 State rebate. The setup was two loans, one same-as-cash 1 year loan for $10,600 (the rebate amounts) and the second for $21,400 for 12 years at 2.99% which is $177/month.

Based on those figures, it would make zero sense to go with a lease at the same monthly payment and you never own the system, plus you're paying that amount for 20 years. With the finance route, after 12 years it's paid off and then your monthly electricity payments really drop.

So am I missing something? Something I didn't consider? I know that with a lease, they maintain the system and guarantee a certain output but from what others have told me, there really isn't much maintenance anyway plus these systems normally come with a 25 year panel warranty and 10 year inverter warranty.

Thanks for the help and any feedback is appreciated.

[prhamilton]

Nope you aren't missing anything. The lease deals tend have a fairly high finance charges built-in.

I don't know the AZ market but in CA $3.00/wDC is a good price. If you trust the installer and the system is designed and sized right then you have a what appears to me to be a much better solution than leasing.

[HX_Guy]

I've talked to 7 companies so far, 6 of them local and have appointments already setup with 4 of them, including one later today so I'll get some real specs on sizing etc. The 10kW system was based on Solar City looking at Google maps and using their software to do a quick setup/layout.

This is what they came up with. The majority of the panels face south and there are additional ones facing east.



I'm hoping we can do something like this which I think would be more beneficial, but not sure if there is the space because our city required a 3' setback from tops and sides (but not from gutter).

[Ian S]

Hey guys, new member here and I'm interested in adding solar power to our home in Phoenix, AZ. I've considered it for a while but just in the last few days got serious and actually started getting some prices/specs/etc.

Originally I was thinking a solar lease which I got a quote for $175/month for a 10kW system from Solar City. Then in my research, I found that for the same amount, I could actually finance a system over 12 years which I would own and it seems like a much much better way to go unless I'm missing something?

I'm going by the data from another local guy but he got a 10.71kW system for a price of $32,000 minus $9,600 Fed rebate minus $1,000 State rebate. The setup was two loans, one same-as-cash 1 year loan for $10,600 (the rebate amounts) and the second for $21,400 for 12 years at 2.99% which is $177/month.

Based on those figures, it would make zero sense to go with a lease at the same monthly payment and you never own the system, plus you're paying that amount for 20 years. With the finance route, after 12 years it's paid off and then your monthly electricity payments really drop.

So am I missing something? Something I didn't consider? I know that with a lease, they maintain the system and guarantee a certain output but from what others have told me, there really isn't much maintenance anyway plus these systems normally come with a 25 year panel warranty and 10 year inverter warranty.

Thanks for the help and any feedback is appreciated.

With that sort of financing, a monthly lease doesn't make a lot of sense. Just be aware that you will be buying an inverter at some point unless you pay extra for an extended warranty on the inverter. Also be aware that the tax credit is non-refundable i.e. it can only offset up to your overall federal income tax liability. Any unused portion can be carried over to subsequent years through 2016. Leasing in Arizona has a new strike against it with the threat of those systems being subject to property tax payable by the lessor who invariably has the right to pass the tax on to the lessee.

What you really have to figure out is the size of the system that will give you the most bang for the buck. That depends on who your utility is, its rate structures and your usage patterns. It helps to do some sort of energy audit and implement appropriate conservation measures first before going ahead with solar.

[HX_Guy]

Thanks Ian. I knew about the tax credit thing, it shouldn't be a problem as we are self employed and currently send in quarterly estimated taxes so we'll just stop sending those and put that money aside to pay the 1st year loan.

I read about the property tax on leasing as well which is a pretty big slap on lessees, I can't believe they can actually apply it to people who are already leasing too, you'd think they would be grandfathered in and new lesses would be subject to it.

From what I understand on the system size, the roof size/shape will determine that more than anything right? I mean budget too of course but if you don't have the space, it doesn't matter if you have the budget.
We've been in the house for 10 months and I did a sort of self analysis of our usage and what I estimate we'll save (based on the Solar City guaranteed output). It will pretty much be a wash at this point, maybe a savings of $100-$200 per year but once it's paid off, then we'll be savings around $2400 per year.

[J.P.M.]

Thanks Ian. I knew about the tax credit thing, it shouldn't be a problem as we are self employed and currently send in quarterly estimated taxes so we'll just stop sending those and put that money aside to pay the 1st year loan.

I read about the property tax on leasing as well which is a pretty big slap on lessees, I can't believe they can actually apply it to people who are already leasing too, you'd think they would be grandfathered in and new lesses would be subject to it.

From what I understand on the system size, the roof size/shape will determine that more than anything right? I mean budget too of course but if you don't have the space, it doesn't matter if you have the budget.
We've been in the house for 10 months and I did a sort of self analysis of our usage and what I estimate we'll save (based on the Solar City guaranteed output). It will pretty much be a wash at this point, maybe a savings of $100-$200 per year but once it's paid off, then we'll be savings around $2400 per year.

On roof size: Not to oversimplify, but you may have it a bit turned around: The (electrical) size solar you choose is largely determined by, among other things, how much of your elec. load you want to offset, usually and often after a cost/benefit analysis taking elec. rates and other things into account. Roof size, orientation, shape and other things will perhaps be the modifying/determining sizing factor if your roof is not big enough to accommodate the (electrical) size system you choose, and ground mounting or other accommodation(s) such as further conservation efforts for load reduction are not a choice.

I try to keep my mouth shut about AZ particulars and I don't know much about AZ pricing, but $3.00/W seems quite low. Whose panels ?

[HX_Guy]

I try to keep my mouth shut about AZ particulars and I don't know much about AZ pricing, but $3.00/W seems quite low. Whose panels ?

He said... "I got a 10.71kW system, 42 Bosch/Aleo 255 Mono panels, with two Power-One PVI-5000 inverters."

Are those good? Bad? Ok?

[Ian S]

He said... "I got a 10.71kW system, 42 Bosch/Aleo 255 Mono panels, with two Power-One PVI-5000 inverters."

Are those good? Bad? Ok?

Power One are fine but this doesn't sound good about Aleo Solar. Maybe that's why it's such a good deal. If the manufacturer soon isn't going to be there, I'd be considering other panels.

I would echo JPM's comments about how to figure system size. You have APS and there are some kinks in trying to figure out the best size. There are two rate structures available for you: standard plan and time of use plan. I am on time of use with APS and I have found that even though my system is sized for about 2/3 of usage, the way the rate structure works, I wind up with hundreds of kWh excess peak credits at the end of the year for which APS pays you peanuts at the annual trueup. So, in effect, they are wasted. But, I'd be even worse off with the standard rate on overall annual savings. So even if I increased the size of my system, my bang for the buck would be worse until the point where I offset nearly all of my electric usage at which point it would make sense to switch to the standard rate plan. So, the best bang for the buck seems to be something around 50-60% of your usage on the T.O.U. plan and something closer to 100% usage on the standard plan. Your bang for the buck will also be impacted by non-south exposure although east may work in your favor on the noon-7PM T.O.U. plan.

Confused yet?

[J.P.M.]

He said... "I got a 10.71kW system, 42 Bosch/Aleo 255 Mono panels, with two Power-One PVI-5000 inverters."

Are those good? Bad? Ok?

Depends on who you talk to. If the panels have Bosh name on them, I think they're discontinued. Ask another CA poster w/the handle "Silversaver". He got a great deal on some discontinued Bosch - <$3.00/W and his performance seems up to snuff. I've got a Rebadged PVI 5000. It's only been in service about 6-7 months and seems OK. Runs quiet as a church mouse, but clips at 5035 W, which is mostly OK under clear skies around here, as max. array clear sky output will be ~~ 4,800 W, +/- some. The clipping occurs when transient irradiance behavior under pt. cloudy skies cause reflections from clouds and enhances irradiance by about 10 - 20% momentarily and intermittently. Based on my experience, On a 10.7 kW sys., I wouldn't go smaller than 2 X 5kW Power One's.

[HX_Guy]

Power One are fine but this doesn't sound good about Aleo Solar. Maybe that's why it's such a good deal. If the manufacturer soon isn't going to be there, I'd be considering other panels.

I would echo JPM's comments about how to figure system size. You have APS and there are some kinks in trying to figure out the best size. There are two rate structures available for you: standard plan and time of use plan. I am on time of use with APS and I have found that even though my system is sized for about 2/3 of usage, the way the rate structure works, I wind up with hundreds of kWh excess peak credits at the end of the year for which APS pays you peanuts at the annual trueup. So, in effect, they are wasted. But, I'd be even worse off with the standard rate on overall annual savings. So even if I increased the size of my system, my bang for the buck would be worse until the point where I offset nearly all of my electric usage at which point it would make sense to switch to the standard rate plan. So, the best bang for the buck seems to be something around 50-60% of your usage on the T.O.U. plan and something closer to 100% usage on the standard plan. Your bang for the buck will also be impacted by non-south exposure although east may work in your favor on the noon-7PM T.O.U. plan.

Confused yet?

Ay! There's definitely a lot of things to consider.

I did see some numbers on another site from someone in Phoenix who was on the noon-7pm TOU and you're completely right, they had a bunch of excess kWh on-peak and no enough off-peak, but with off-peak being 1/4 of the cost of on-peak power, it still worked out better in their opinion. Then someone else chimed in and said they are on the standard rate plan and they found that it worked best for them.

I guess it goes without saying that it will depend from person to person. We are currently on the noon-7pm TOU already and we use quite a bit on-peak since we are home all day and keep the A/C at 77º even during the day, and have a 5 ton and a 1.5 ton A/C system.

Is there really a way to accurately calculate? I mean I know how much we use on-peak vs off-peak, but how do you figure how much the system will produce between the different hours? How big is your system Ian and which way do the panels face? What is your production like if you don't mind sharing?

[HX_Guy]

Depends on who you talk to. If the panels have Bosh name on them, I think they're discontinued. Ask another CA poster w/the handle "Silversaver". He got a great deal on some discontinued Bosch - <$3.00/W and his performance seems up to snuff. I've got a Rebadged PVI 5000. It's only been in service about 6-7 months and seems OK. Runs quiet as a church mouse, but clips at 5035 W, which is mostly OK under clear skies around here, as max. array clear sky output will be ~~ 4,800 W, +/- some. The clipping occurs when transient irradiance behavior under pt. cloudy skies cause reflections from clouds and enhances irradiance by about 10 - 20% momentarily and intermittently. Based on my experience, On a 10.7 kW sys., I wouldn't go smaller than 2 X 5kW Power One's.

Thanks for the input. I actually just wrapped up my first on-site estimate from a local company. Unfortunately their salesman wasn't very good and I don't even know if I can trust his information but he gave me two quotes with panels/inverters that I've never heard of, though I have no experience with this so that doesn't mean much.

The first was a 10.6kW system using 40 Sun Edison panels and a Fronius inverter. The price was $43,000 (before credits) and he said it included an electrical panel change which will be necessary according to him. We have a 200 AMP panel and he said we'll need a 400 AMP panel, does that sound correct?

The second was a 10.5kW system using 42 Canadian Solar panels and also a Fornius inverter. Price was $33,000 (before credits) and also included the upgraded panel change. Obviously much better price, but he didn't know the model numbers of the panels or inverters [Edit: Found on the quote that the inverter is a Fronius USA, Model: IG Plus A 10.0-240.]

Any input on those?

[Ian S]

Ay! There's definitely a lot of things to consider.

I did see some numbers on another site from someone in Phoenix who was on the noon-7pm TOU and you're completely right, they had a bunch of excess kWh on-peak and no enough off-peak, but with off-peak being 1/4 of the cost of on-peak power, it still worked out better in their opinion. Then someone else chimed in and said they are on the standard rate plan and they found that it worked best for them.

I guess it goes without saying that it will depend from person to person. We are currently on the noon-7pm TOU already and we use quite a bit on-peak since we are home all day and keep the A/C at 77º even during the day, and have a 5 ton and a 1.5 ton A/C system.

Is there really a way to accurately calculate? I mean I know how much we use on-peak vs off-peak, but how do you figure how much the system will produce between the different hours? How big is your system Ian and which way do the panels face? What is your production like if you don't mind sharing?

We're like you - home during the day. Home is old (1969) all on one level with a 5 ton gaspack. I haven't checked in awhile but last time I calculated the on vs off peak production, I think on peak/off peak ratio was about 55/45. That's for a southern exposure and would obviously be different for other orientations. My system is a 6.9 kW Sunpower system, 15 deg panel slope and produces about 12,400 kWh annually in central Phoenix. Pre-solar, we used about 18,750 kWh annually. We're saving about $1500/year. Here's a link to see my actual production data. You could probably check to see what the ratio is between on and off peak production.

[HX_Guy]

Whoa that's awesome! I love stuff like that (graphcs/tracking/etc), will definitely look at it more in depth in a bit here.

Your yearly usage sounds close to ours, we're a bit higher but not much more at about 20,000 kWh. So even with a somewhat smaller system like that, you're still over producing peak power? Have you calculated what it would mean for your bills if you went with the standard rate? Let me know if you need a spreadsheet with all the APS formulas already inputed, you would just need to plug in your kWh used per month.

[silversaver]

I have Bosch 255W panels install since Dec 2103. I don't think they are any different as other brand name (discontinued) and I got them at $2.84 per Watt DC before incentives. I have lots friends looking for the same deal and wish they can get my deal, but no more.

I don't think you can get Bosch through Solar City or other leasing company, because the bank will not use discontinued brand name panels.

[Ian S]

Your yearly usage sounds close to ours, we're a bit higher but not much more at about 20,000 kWh. So even with a somewhat smaller system like that, you're still over producing peak power? Have you calculated what it would mean for your bills if you went with the standard rate? Let me know if you need a spreadsheet with all the APS formulas already inputed, you would just need to plug in your kWh used per month.

Yeah the over production is an annoyance - would love to have it offset off peak instead. However, when my system was installed in 2012, the true-up rate was about $0.06/kWh which in effect made it close to offsetting off-peak usage. But in 2013, APS changed the rate to $0.029/ kWh and I wouldn't be surprised if they reduced it further. I did look in a quick and dirty way at how the standard rate would have worked and unfortunately, it would be deadly in the summer and wind up costing some hundreds more overall. That said, I'll soon be in the market for a new HVAC system with higher efficiency so that might make the standard rate more appealing. Yeah, I would be interested in that spreadsheet. I made one way back before solar but it's a mess and not really well-suited to comparing the standard with TOU rates.