Feedback on research requested, About to go with REC Solar/Sunrun - Dublin, CA

[smc]

Hello from Dublin, CA.

In the short time I've been registered on this board, I've been poring over threads and researching till solar is coming out of my ears.

Why I want to go solar?
We moved into this place about 2yrs ago and will likely stay here for the foreseeable future (at least the next 10 years).
Our usage over the last year was about 7500 kWh, with a $120/mo average bill. Definitely higher usage in the summer from running the A/C. We can only see our usage going up with a growing family.
I don't want to be subject to the pricing whims of a pseudo-monopoly, and am willing to make an upfront investment to free us from that.
I watched the PG&E/CSI incentives dry up and want to get in before the Fed credit, net metering, and aggressive depreciation schedules for leases dry up.

My Research Notes:
I've completed my initial analysis and interviewed 6 companies: Sungevity, Real Goods Solar, Solar City, Sunpower(Skypower), REC Solar(Sunrun), Verengo.

Real Goods was the only one who tried to convince me to purchase.
Solar City tried to push me into signing a $0 down PPA.
Sunpower's price was just really high, not even competitive.
Verengo's projected year 1 output numbers were curiously low compared to the other 5 companies. I'm not sure why. They're the only ones who tried to set me up with a 5.5 kw system.

When it came down to it, REC Solar (acquired by Sunrun) came in with the lowest quote.
I'm looking at their 4.68 kW system. Components: 18x REC 260W Panels, Power-One Inverter:PVI-3.6-OUTD-S-US-A (240V)
20-yr prepaid lease: $2.36/W before incentives, $2.21/W after for a 20-yr prepaid lease.
The purchase price: $3.45/W before rebates/incentives, $2.27/W after.
After incentives, a lease will cost $10,350 vs a purchase price of $10630. I have not even tried to negotiate down yet... I will.
Year 1 guaranteed output (6961 kWh) should cover about 94% of our usage based on last year's numbers. 20-yr guaranteed output total of 132,300 kWh. Effective rate of $.078/kWh.
I've calculated my break-even point using various methods of between 7.2 - 7.8 yrs (is there a standard way to calculate this)?

What I like about the 20-yr prepaid lease (in general, across all vendors)

No warranty, maintenance, or "cost-of-ownership" headaches (I worry about my A/C going out every summer and the unknown cost of getting it fixed)
Up front cost is generally cheaper than ownership (actual $280 savings in my case)
Inverter and panel failure covered for 20 years (estimated $2500 savings)
No additional insurance premium (estimated $1000 savings @ $50/yr increase... per my Farmers agent)
Monitoring web portal included (not included with ownership... specific to Sunrun)
Guaranteed output with escalating refund for under-performance (starting at $.088 at Yr 1 to $.152 at Yr 20)
Very low buyout cost at Yr 20, or free system removal
Easy to transfer lease upon house sale, adds similar value to house if we did sell
Contingency funds set aside for continuing warranty/maintenance over the life of the lease if Sunrun declares bankruptcy (specific to Sunrun)

Is there anything I'm missing on why should I own vs lease? I've gone over it multiple times, and can't think of any.

Any other feedback on REC Solar/Sunrun would be appreciated.

Thanks in advance,
Sam

[ButchDeal]

I'm looking at their 4.68 kWh system. Components: 18x REC 260W Panels, Power-One Inverter:PVI-3.6-OUTD-S-US-A (240V)
20-yr prepaid lease: $2.36/W before incentives, $2.21/W after for a 20-yr prepaid lease.
The purchase price: $3.45/W before rebates/incentives, $2.27/W after.

I assume you meant a 4.68kW system not kWh. If kWh, it would be pretty small for a 7500 kWh monthly usage.

have you looked into NRG which provides leases in your area. Or Conergy which I believe sells in your area.

[Ian S]

Hi Sam! Many folks around here like the feeling of actually owning their system. They have the freedom to expand the system should they wish, something that you generally can't do with a lease/PPA. Also, these things are quite reliable, and except for the inverter, should last the full 20 years. That inverter exception is substantial though so it's nice to have that covered via a lease. I would also say that with a lease, if something does go wrong, you only have one entity to deal with and not risk a lot of finger pointing. Your payback time of around 7 years is quite reasonable.

I would just say that your inverter might be a tad small for your array. You might want to discuss that with the installer. Also, in general, your biggest bang for the buck is knocking off the higher rate tiers; you get to the point of diminishing returns as you attempt to cover all your electric needs with solar. That said, if you think there's an EV in your future and/or high future usage, then the size may be appropriate. Just make sure you've also put good conservation measures into effect. Be aware that those production guarantees are very conservative, i.e. your system will almost certainly wind up generating 5-10% more than that.

There is a good chance that in 20 years you will wind up with ownership of the system anyway but that's not guaranteed. Presumably, you would purchase at fair market value and there are widely differing ways of coming up with a figure for that. At this point no one knows what it will turn out to be.

IMHO, your deal looks pretty decent.

[prhamilton]

I would straight up tell other vendors like sungevity that sunrun gave you 10,300 and see if they will play ball. You are building a commodity system and it will be easy to get apples to apples comparison. It helps once these guys know they are in a competitive bidding situation, there are lots of people that only get a single quote. I got a bunch of quotes similar to yours and sungevity and sunrun both competed pretty hard for the business. I ended up going with sungevity and have been pleased with them so far. I paid $2.17/W for a 7kW system on a 20 year prepaid.

After you get a fixed price you might ask about the Sunny Boy inverter(TL-22 series). It has an emergency power feature that seems pretty cool. It will probably cost a bit more but finish the bidding with the PowerOne and then see what the increase is. I wanted to get that inverter but it only comes in 4kW and 5kW size and I needed a 6kW inverter.

Sounds like you are doing your homework and have a bunch of good deals. You might ask about the installer(both sunrun and sungevity don't do the installs). Then yelp the installer or ask around here.

[JCP]

If you ever want to increase the size of your solar array, you will need a complete second installation and separate PPA contract (at least that's what Solar City told me). I was not thrilled by that.

[smc]

have you looked into NRG which provides leases in your area. Or Conergy which I believe sells in your area.

I have not looked into either. Actually, I don't see NRG or Conergy in my area. At least they are not in the top 20 vendors by project

http://www.californiasolarstatistics.ca.gov/search/contractor/results/?page=1&sort=project_ct&distance=50&agency=PG%26E&install_date=past_year&input=94568&lookup_by=zip&dir=desc

Hi Sam! Many folks around here like the feeling of actually owning their system. They have the freedom to expand the system should they wish, something that you generally can't do with a lease/PPA. Also, these things are quite reliable, and except for the inverter, should last the full 20 years. That inverter exception is substantial though so it's nice to have that covered via a lease. I would also say that with a lease, if something does go wrong, you only have one entity to deal with and not risk a lot of finger pointing. Your payback time of around 7 years is quite reasonable.

Ian, thanks for the input on the pros of ownership. I think with this system size, I probably would not need to expand the system. The portion of southwest facing roof would be filled almost to capacity by the 18 panels. I will discuss the inverter capacity with them as well.

I would straight up tell other vendors like sungevity that sunrun gave you 10,300 and see if they will play ball. You are building a commodity system and it will be easy to get apples to apples comparison. It helps once these guys know they are in a competitive bidding situation, there are lots of people that only get a single quote. I got a bunch of quotes similar to yours and sungevity and sunrun both competed pretty hard for the business. I ended up going with sungevity and have been pleased with them so far. I paid $2.17/W for a 7kW system on a 20 year prepaid.

After you get a fixed price you might ask about the Sunny Boy inverter(TL-22 series). It has an emergency power feature that seems pretty cool. It will probably cost a bit more but finish the bidding with the PowerOne and then see what the increase is. I wanted to get that inverter but it only comes in 4kW and 5kW size and I needed a 6kW inverter.

Sounds like you are doing your homework and have a bunch of good deals. You might ask about the installer(both sunrun and sungevity don't do the installs). Then yelp the installer or ask around here.

Thanks for the advice. I definitely will attempt to enter negotiations well equipped. I will ask about the inverter you recommended.
Regarding installers, REC Solar (Sunrun) committed to using in house REC Solar employees. Sungevity will use local installers but won't name them until a contract is signed.

If you ever want to increase the size of your solar array, you will need a complete second installation and separate PPA contract (at least that's what Solar City told me). I was not thrilled by that.

I understand this point. Hopefully this will be all the capacity I need for the next 20 years that will at least keep me in Tier 1/2. No plug-in EV's for us in the near future, not sold on the capacity yet.

Also, in general, your biggest bang for the buck is knocking off the higher rate tiers; you get to the point of diminishing returns as you attempt to cover all your electric needs with solar. That said, if you think there's an EV in your future and/or high future usage, then the size may be appropriate. Just make sure you've also put good conservation measures into effect. Be aware that those production guarantees are very conservative, i.e. your system will almost certainly wind up generating 5-10% more than that.

I agree with all these points. Thanks for the feedback on the conservative production guarantees. That makes me feel a lot better. I still don't know why Verengo was projecting Yr 1 6601 kWh from a 5 kw system... overly conservative?

[smc]

First round of negotiations with REC solar.
They would make an exception and accept any credit card for the upfront lease payment. @ 1%, that is another $110 off. They threw in another $50 if I gave them 2 additional referrals with no obligation to sign up.
They said any further discounting would require a business proposal with a printed offer from a competitor.

Time to hit up Sungevity.

[prim]

Looking forward to your update we just got a quote from rec solar for $23.5K for a 9.36kW system for prepaid lease. The purchase price after tax credit was 24K. seems higher than what you got so I am curious if its often that the price goes up differently as the system doubles in size.

[smc]

My Sungevity consultant was able to give $1000 off bringing them down to $2.52/W, but we are waiting for a for VP-approved pricematch on monday.
Real Goods came back around $2.51/W, but they are also offering me $100 off for each name/number referral I give them. No limit, no requirement to sign up. $500 additional per sign up. I might hit this hard.

Here are all the Costco promo's I've gotten from REC Solar. Some of them are fixed prices, so they have an bigger discounting effect on a smaller starting number.

Refer 2 friends - no obligations, April: $500
Refer 2 friends - no obligations: $50
2% Exec Mem cash back: $129 (This is the number they calculcated, not sure how they arrived at this number)
1% any credit card cash back: $110
Free 1 yr Exec Membership worth $110
Total Promos $899

[russ]

but they are also offering me $100 off for each name/number referral I give them. No limit, no requirement to sign up. $500 additional per sign up. I might hit this hard.

Here are all the Costco promo's I've gotten from REC Solar. Some of them are fixed prices, so they have an bigger discounting effect on a smaller starting number.

Refer 2 friends - no obligations, April: $500
Refer 2 friends - no obligations: $50
2% Exec Mem cash back: $129 (This is the number they calculcated, not sure how they arrived at this number)
1% any credit card cash back: $110
Free 1 yr Exec Membership worth $110
Total Promos $899

The "screw your buddy plan" - Bottom feeding really.

[silversaver]

you never referral anyone unless you already have a completed job done and happy.

[russ]

you never referral anyone unless you already have a completed job done and happy.

The referral fee is just added into their cost - it ain't free

[pleppik]

The referral fee is just added into their cost - it ain't free

Well, okay, but so is the cost of marketing, lead generation, sales commissions, etc.

I think it's plausible that the referral fee works out to be cheaper than the cost of generating a sale through other means. In which case, the referral fee doesn't add anything to the company's net sales and marketing expenses.

Unless you think sales and marketing is free, that is.

[smc]

Sorry if I stepped on any toes regarding referrals. I decided not to go that route (unlimited referrals).
The 4 friends I will refer have all expressed interest in solar. I will attempt to educate them and share my research to equip them to get the best possible system at the fairest price they can.

REC Solar / Sunrun came back this evening and accepted my proposed price of $10,500 (4.68 kw, 20yr pp lease) before incentives. It made my evening. I was pretty surprised, since I was just hoping to use that number as a starting point for negotiations. It comes to $2.24/W before incentives, $2.05/W after.
I'm reviewing the terms now and about to sign my docusign form.
Then I'll draft a "thanks, but no thanks" email to the other 5 players.


Thanks all, for your help and suggestions.

[silversaver]

Sorry if I stepped on any toes regarding referrals. I decided not to go that route (unlimited referrals).
The 4 friends I will refer have all expressed interest in solar. I will attempt to educate them and share my research to equip them to get the best possible system at the fairest price they can.

REC Solar / Sunrun came back this evening and accepted my proposed price of $10,500 (4.68 kw, 20yr pp lease) before incentives. It made my evening. I was pretty surprised, since I was just hoping to use that number as a starting point for negotiations. It comes to $2.24/W before incentives, $2.05/W after.
I'm reviewing the terms now and about to sign my docusign form.
Then I'll draft a "thanks, but no thanks" email to the other 5 players.


Thanks all, for your help and suggestions.

I purchase my system (own) net $1.87/W after incentives in SoCal. read and shop.