Quoting our first system- NYS

[Sunking]

Of course the payoff takes time...

Question for you. Lets say you invest $10,000 and in 25 years you cash out that investment and they give you $10,000 back;
What was your ROI?

At 25 years I would be wanting $50 to $100K back.

[snic]

Question for you. Lets say you invest $10,000 and in 25 years you cash out that investment and they give you $10,000 back;
What was your ROI?

At 25 years I would be wanting $50 to $100K back.

Yes, I'd love to invest $10k at 9.5%, which would give me $100k after 25 years. Unless you know some Madoffs, that might be unrealistic.

It's also unrealistic to say that after investing $10k in solar panels, you end up with $10k after 25 years.

I expect to save about $1200/year on my electric bill. In 25 years, I will have saved $30,000, from an initial expense of $10,000. So that is a return of $20,000 on a $10K investment, which amounts to an annual rate of return of about 2.85%. Not particularly high, but it's not nothing either, and it's a stable investment.

Of course, this doesn't take into account several factors:
1. The 2.85% return is tax-free.
2. I can invest $1200 per year in other investments that might earn better than 2.85%. This simply means that it's not quite fair to compare the 2.85% rate of return directly to what I could have gotten by investing $10k in some other investment - because I can still invest my utility savings in that other investment.
3. Electric rates are likely to increase over 25 years.
4. At some point in the next 25 years I'll probably have to replace the roof, and incur additional expense to remove and re-install the solar panels.

[snic]

2. I can invest $1200 per year in other investments that might earn better than 2.85%. This simply means that it's not quite fair to compare the 2.85% rate of return directly to what I could have gotten by investing $10k in some other investment - because I can still invest my utility savings in that other investment.

Here's an example that illustrates this point. Let's say that instead of buying solar, I invest $10k in the stock market, where it earns an annual rate of return of 7%. In 25 years, I would have $54,274.

Now let's say I buy the solar system for $10k. Then I take each of my annual savings of $1200 and invest it in the stock market, earning the same annual rate of return of 7%. In 25 years, I would have $80,786.

So, over the long term, I come out ahead with the solar investment - and that's the case no matter what you expect the stock market's rate of return to be, as long as it's positive.

(Investment returns were calculated using this calculator.)

[reagle]

Going back to my original post and thinking of other possible gotchas,
what impact do you guys see in the impeding Govt shutdown may have on the federal incentives? Can things already on the books be somehow "erased" so that we all wake up a week later and the 30% solar credit is gone, or is that stuff pretty safe for now?
And secondly, what do you typically see used as a roof mount on asphalt shingles? I've been quoted basically an L-shaped foot with a butyl sealant and poly injection into the screw hole. I am thinking something like a Quickmount PV would be a lot less reliant on application quality and sealant itself to keep my ceiling dry. I guess the town does not explicitly require flashing, but seems like a good idea

[joegovette]

You all have great incentives for solar in NY. I don't quite understand why anybody would lease a system there unless it is the initial amount needed to buy. Do you all have net metering as well or is the lump sum from the electric company all that you get?

[snic]

We have net metering.

(And the lump sum doesn't come from the utility - it comes from a state agency that, as I understand it, imposes a small tax on electricity, and uses the proceeds to issue rebates to installers of residential solar systems.)

Reagle, a gov'mint shutdown will have no effect on the federal tax credit for solar. It's written into law and doesn't expire until 2016 (I think). Now, if the government is shutdown when you file your tax return, it might take some time to get your refund...

For roof mounts, you'd want something that's engineered to resist leaking, preferably something with flashing.

[reagle]

Thanks for all the comments and advice. We are going forward with the installation!
Now, the question is what are the lead times people are seeing with the SunPower AC panels?

[ajpslp]

Thanks for all the comments and advice. We are going forward with the installation!
Now, the question is what are the lead times people are seeing with the SunPower AC panels?

Im waiting for my panels but I ordered the all black 335's so heard lead time is like 10-12 weeks. The 327's are about 6-8 week lead time after ur architect and plans for city are approved

[reagle]

Mine are SPR-240ACPV, and they supposedly order them as soon as you sign the contract. I guess we shall see

[ajpslp]

yes think those panels are a bit quicker to get , in NYC though architect and permits need to be approved and after all said and done its gonna be 10-12 weeks ! ur panels can be a bit quicker

[reagle]

Came home yesterday to find a brand new smart meter in place of my old mechanical one. A letter from the utility saying they've approved the design was in the mail as well.
Things are starting to move Oh, and my utility "enter your readings" web page now has two spots for electrical meter. They call them photovoltaic meter- generation and photovoltaic meter- usage. Next up is seeing how long it takes NYSERDA to get around to my paperwork

[snic]

Came home yesterday to find a brand new smart meter in place of my old mechanical one. A letter from the utility saying they've approved the design was in the mail as well.
Things are starting to move Oh, and my utility "enter your readings" web page now has two spots for electrical meter. They call them photovoltaic meter- generation and photovoltaic meter- usage. Next up is seeing how long it takes NYSERDA to get around to my paperwork

Nyserda takes about 6 weeks. In my case their approval came through well before the town's building permit. That took 2 months (!) partly because we have an architectural review board that has to approve the project before the building department does, and partly because our building department is the most inefficient bureaucracy on the planet.

[reagle]

Nyserda takes about 6 weeks. In my case their approval came through well before the town's building permit. That took 2 months (!) partly because we have an architectural review board that has to approve the project before the building department does, and partly because our building department is the most inefficient bureaucracy on the planet.

Just found out NYSERDA is out of funding for October, so once more money comes in and if you are still in the queue, you'd get that at the new lower rate of $1.15/W instead of $1.30. Damn

[reagle]

Doing taxes now, and it indeed looks to be a question of standard vs itemized deduction.
If I pick standard, my federal refund this year goes down by $400 or so. But then next year my $4300 state tax credit refund from 2013 will not get taxed. So that's around $1100 for my tax bracket, or a net $600 savings with sufficient patience. Hmm, I may go for that- thanks for the heads up.
Oh, and our system is up at https://www.sunpowermonitor.com/resi...6-17a99bac26a3

A separate issue that I suspect many people miss: your bottom line seems to be a net cost of $8k. But remember that you're taking a NY state income tax credit of $4300. If you itemize deductions and normally deduct state income tax, that's $4300 that you won't be able to deduct. So you'll pay federal income taxes on it; depending on what your federal tax rate is, that's quite a hit --$1200 if you're in the 28% bracket. So your system net cost will be closer to $9k.

Anyway, I live in downstate NY, and am under contract for a smaller system (4.5 kW) for a similar cost. So it sounds like you're getting a good deal (although I think labor costs are probably a bit less upstate).