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Should I worry that SunPower may have bankruptcy issues?

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  • Should I worry that SunPower may have bankruptcy issues?

    I'm about to sign a contract for a 5.175 KW micro inverter system for about $20K from SunPower. One of the reasons I'm getting it is because of the SunPower guarantee. They have a great one. I've talked to some competing companies. Some of them have told me about SunPower in news lately, and that they may go bankrupt. Should I worry about this? Is this a serious concern? If so, what protection do I have if the system fails down the line?

  • #2
    You are better off saving your money by going with one of the many proven local installers than paying big bucks for Sunpower's high quality marketing. Just look for mainstream, name brand PV panels and a quality inverter from a good, local installer that has a track record with SolarReviews.
    BSEE, R11, NABCEP, Chevy BoltEV, >3000kW installed

    Comment


    • #3
      Sunpower is majority owned by the French oil co. Total. Their pockets are pretty deep.

      I'd not worry as much about Sunpower going belly up as I would about the buyer's remorse you'll probably feel when you find out how much extra you paid for Sunpower - something like 20 % or so - and then learn that other, equal quality and equally fit for use panels will, in all likelihood provide about the same annual output for as long as you'll own them.

      You are about to pay for some of Sunpower's hype/advertising. Sunpower is quality stuff and I own a Sunpower system. I also own their stock whose appreciation paid for my array many times over. One big, but not sole reason I bought that stock was my belief in the truth of the statement attributed (but unsubstantiated) to P.T. Barnum's about a sucker being born every minute, and how it relates to folks who believe the Sunpower hype and take the bait. Most all they get for the extra money spent is bragging rights for a charade enabled by their ignorance.

      BTW, panels last a long time, with the very few failures that do seem to happen occurring early on.

      One more minor point: If Sunpower stuff is so good, why is such a claimed "superior" warranty needed in the first place ?

      Get equal quality, less expensive panels and buy a rip off extended warranty if you're concerned about failure. You'll get your warranty fears soothed for a whole lot less $$. At least that way, you'll screw yourself a bit on the extended warranty choice instead of letting Sunpower do it.

      Comment


      • mccain
        mccain commented
        Editing a comment
        I understand, however, I have done the math. Over the life of the system, the SunPower degredation makes up for the extra cost and then some. Also, the panels I am looking at are 345W. I can fit the same sized system on a smaller area of my roof if I go with SunPower or other premium panels as opposed to the lower wattage offered by other companies. I also like their warrantyas I have a 10 year guarantee with the installer and a 25 year guarantee from SunPower. I don't mind paying a little extra to cover all of this. It seems like a no brainer to me. Also, I don't want a single inverter system as this is just another added cost when they fail after every 10 or so years. Am I missing something?

    • #4
      Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post
      Sunpower is majority owned by the French oil co. .
      Oops you just let the secret be known.
      MSEE, PE

      Comment


      • solarix
        solarix commented
        Editing a comment
        Total is not an oil company - its an "energy" company....

    • #5
      Originally posted by Sunking View Post

      Oops you just let the secret be known.
      yea, if it was anyone but the French....

      Comment


      • #6
        Originally posted by mccain View Post
        I understand, however, I have done the math. Over the life of the system, the SunPower degredation makes up for the extra cost and then some. Also, the panels I am looking at are 345W. I can fit the same sized system on a smaller area of my roof if I go with SunPower or other premium panels as opposed to the lower wattage offered by other companies. I also like their warrantyas I have a 10 year guarantee with the installer and a 25 year guarantee from SunPower. I don't mind paying a little extra to cover all of this. It seems like a no brainer to me. Also, I don't want a single inverter system as this is just another added cost when they fail after every 10 or so years. Am I missing something?
        IMO, you are missing more than something. My math is apparently a lot different than yours, but your decision isn't my decision/money/home/etc. What you write of above and much more has been discussed by me and others more than a few times and at some length. Opinions do vary, but I'd suggest there seems to be a consensus of opinion among the smart money that is gravitating toward the idea that Sunpower stuff, while good quality, is of no better quality than other known brands, and an expensive choice that is less cost effective than other equipment choices while at the same time yielding no more long term advantage in terms of reliability.

        Pay the Sunpower premium. With a good installer, you'll probably get a good system, but no better than one you could get, and with no more annual production per installed Watt than you'd get using other quality equipment. Maybe you'll also get to feel good by believing the hype and getting bragging rights - enjoy those because that's about all you'll get for the extra money spent.

        That lower annual degradation is worth something. My math tells me it's worth maybe a 5 % up front premium using high CA utility rates. Using life cycle costing methods and what I believe are some realistic assumptions, anything more than that 5% or so ain't worth it, and certainly not worth the usual ~ 20% up front Sunpower premium, and definitely not when POCO rates are low relative to a lot of CA rates.

        Comment


        • mccain
          mccain commented
          Editing a comment
          I see. I'm not interested in bragging rights. lol. I only want the best deal for the money. From my quotes, I am getting SunPower at a 7% premium cost over the best non premium panel deal for equal first year production in kWh. I'm not getting 20% cost difference. Maybe I'm a good negotiator with SunPower or reps or maybe I' a bad negotiator with everyone else. However, I did negotiate with many companies including local. Sungevity seemed to have the best deal... but it wasn't that great. I was surprised how close the prices were considering what I have read online about the premium cost of SunPower.

          I see everything going micro inverters in the future. I don't see the point of having a single inverter as a failure point causing the whole system to die. I'd rather an individual panel fail. Also, these DC optimizers are great but that's one more piece to fail. The logic is telling me that there are more things that can go wrong with these options. SunPower has the micro inverters built into the panel and he warranty includes both, and I can call in to verify if any panel is failing. According to their warranty they will have it replaced when it breaks the threshold, which is better than the thresholds that other companies have.

          I guess I see your point. But I seem to be experience different numbers that you are, so I am coming up with different conclusions. I would advise anyone do their own homework and do the math yourself. Every dealer will tell you that there system produces more. Do the research on PVwatts or an equivalent site to get the best estimate on production. This way you can cut through to the actual number that matters... cost per watt.

          Then you should consider warranty, look, roof space, degredation, and track record on failure, and viability. All of these things will come into play. I'm still on the fence and will rerun the numbers... but as of now the 7% cost difference is worth it for me.

        • mccain
          mccain commented
          Editing a comment
          I do think you're right on that 5% btw. I was basing my numbers of some old comparable. Thank you. I have updated them and they are within 5% over 20 years. Assuming the panels last to 40 years... this number would get larger. But 20 years seemed like a good comparison.

      • #7
        I have '2' sunpower systems and very happy with both.. prob did pay somewhat extra $$$, but did so for the warr. that's ofcourse provided they are still in bizz years down the road... didn't know that total r large shareowners... which really doesn't mean all that much if SP gets in trouble..UNLESS total wants to pony up add. $$$ for a failing company...

        Comment


        • #8
          I am a homeowner so my solar knowledge has been gathered over the past year. I'm in LA and put up a 29 panel Sunpower system working with Green Convergence. I inadvertently started with SP Direct, a big mistake. Their equipment and technology are extremely good but work with a reputable company for all the roof/permit/follow-up issues you will have. I am also a "data nerd" so I really appreciate the reporting. I am only a few days into operation but already, the micro inverter benefits are proving to be extremely valuable as I learn the behaviors of the various zones on my roof.

          Bankruptcy, read the link for a more elaborate analysis, it makes a lot of sense and gave me confidence about their future.
          http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/0...ruptcy-or.aspx

          I am happy with my decision to use Sunpower products and Green Convergence to manage the installation and support.

          Admin Note, your starting to sound like a referral farmer, please dont go down that road

          Comment


          • #9
            Originally posted by mccain View Post
            I see. I'm not interested in bragging rights. lol. I only want the best deal for the money. From my quotes, I am getting SunPower at a 7% premium cost over the best non premium panel deal for equal first year production in kWh. I'm not getting 20% cost difference. Maybe I'm a good negotiator with SunPower or reps or maybe I' a bad negotiator with everyone else. However, I did negotiate with many companies including local. Sungevity seemed to have the best deal... but it wasn't that great. I was surprised how close the prices were considering what I have read online about the premium cost of SunPower.

            I see everything going micro inverters in the future. I don't see the point of having a single inverter as a failure point causing the whole system to die. I'd rather an individual panel fail. Also, these DC optimizers are great but that's one more piece to fail. The logic is telling me that there are more things that can go wrong with these options. SunPower has the micro inverters built into the panel and he warranty includes both, and I can call in to verify if any panel is failing. According to their warranty they will have it replaced when it breaks the threshold, which is better than the thresholds that other companies have.

            I guess I see your point. But I seem to be experience different numbers that you are, so I am coming up with different conclusions. I would advise anyone do their own homework and do the math yourself. Every dealer will tell you that there system produces more. Do the research on PVwatts or an equivalent site to get the best estimate on production. This way you can cut through to the actual number that matters... cost per watt.

            Then you should consider warranty, look, roof space, degredation, and track record on failure, and viability. All of these things will come into play. I'm still on the fence and will rerun the numbers... but as of now the 7% cost difference is worth it for me.
            Best deal for your money has a very personal definition for most everyone. If you're happy with the deal, that's the bottom line and end of the conversation. I'd bet a big part of the difference between us is that I use 12 years for a lot of reasons that I believe have some sound logic and common sense behind them, rather than the 20 or more year time frames that wind up making overpaying seem cost effective. I also stay with historical and verified actual rate rates and rate changes from my POCO's tariffs going back to 2002. I'm aware the past is no predictor of the future, but IMO, still a lot better than the wild projections from peddlers with skin in the game that make it sound like the sky is falling.

            Simply because something may last 20 + years, and I don't, at this time doubt that possibility, does not mean it will be needed or fit for the situation for that long, or that equipment advancements will not erode its value, or other things.

            However, I'd also wonder about the other quotes with respect to their price maybe being high. Maybe your area is a lot different than mine, but ~ $3.25 - $3.50/Watt for say, an LG system vs. ~ $4.25 - $4.50/Watt for a S.P. system seems to be the lowest pricing for decent vendors, with lots of folks paying more for each as evidenced by the CSI database. A decent price for Sungevity around here seems about $3.40/Watt or so, FWIW.

            $3.86/Watt looks like a real deal on the S.P. offer (Snitch and reveal the vendor as a public service - believe me they'll be flooded with enquiries at that price), but if it's only 7% more than the next best per Watt price, ($3.61/Watt), well, maybe the other quotes are a bit on the high side ?

            One perhaps hidden advantage in a string inverter is that if it takes a dump, you'll know it pretty quickly, rather than something like the death by 1,000 cuts as a single micro failure may go unnoticed. I watch my system like a hawk, but most owners are not as eccentric as I am and get bored with it after a few days with incremental failures, if they do occur, perhaps going unnoticed.

            Comment


            • mccain
              mccain commented
              Editing a comment
              Thanks J.P.M. I really appreciate your input. This stuff is very interesting and I am still learning.

              Your 12 year analysis makes sense to me considering there is not enough empirical evidence to know too much of what will happen in the distant future. I can certainly understand your point here.

              I believe I have pinpointed part of the reason why our premium calculations are so different. Would you mind taking a look at the following at how I arrived at a 7% premium? I would be curious to know what you and others think.

              I based my cost analysis on production estimates for my house using PV watts and a couple other programs. I had some help from a friend that has no vested interest in either company. We found that to produce a 8700 kWh in the 1st year I would need a 5.175kW system from SunPower. To my surprise, it would require a 5.4KW system from Sungevity to yield the same 8700kWh in the 1st year.

              This confounded me at first. I assumed a small difference in quality would result in a small difference in production, but was not expecting such a great amount. I think the reason is because of the layout of my roof and that fact that Sungevity uses smaller wattage panels. What it comes down this that I would need to install more of them than I would for SunPower.

              To fit the extra panels, it would require a second 2nd roof facet. The second facet is not pointed in a direction that is as ideal as the first. To my eyes... I can barely tell the difference. However, according to my sofware calculations, this has a negative affect on production of the Sungevity system. I believe this is why I would need a 5.4kW Sungevity system to get the same 1st year production as a 5.175kW SunPower system. What do you think of my reasoning here?

              Now I was able to compare apples to apples. I began negotiating on price. I was able to get a 5.4kW Solar Edge Sungevity system down to $19,828. And the price for the 5.175kW SunPower system down to $21,235. The difference is $1407. This is 7% above $19,828 from Sungevity.

              It seems to me... Cost per Watt (the wattage stated on the panels) is not a legitimate way to compare two systems. It has at least one flaw and possibly others. If one system requires more panels resulting in a 2nd roof facet being used that points in a less than ideal direction, then Cost per Watt (the wattage state on the panels) becomes a meaningless comparison. What really matters for comparison is energy produced in the 1st year.

              In my opinion, the only way to compare two system is Cost per Watt PRODUCED. What do you think about my argument here? Of course to do this, the customer must be knowledgable and have access to software that can give a non-biased accurate estimate.

              Curious to know your thoughts. Thanks again for you input! What a fun puzzle!
              d
              Last edited by mccain; 10-22-2016, 12:10 AM.

            • mccain
              mccain commented
              Editing a comment
              I found out something else interesting... The SunPower guarantee on their modules have a -0/+10 % of the nameplate ratting for power production of DC to AC. I believe no other company does this. I think they are more like a minimum of -5% of nameplate. SunPower seems to have a minimum threshold of 0 . It sounds like SunPower modules stand by their nameplate rating and then some as opposed to other companies. What do you think?

          • #10
            Originally posted by dougmielke View Post
            I am a homeowner so my solar knowledge has been gathered over the past year. I'm in LA and put up a 29 panel Sunpower system working with Green Convergence. I inadvertently started with SP Direct, a big mistake. Their equipment and technology are extremely good but work with a reputable company for all the roof/permit/follow-up issues you will have. I am also a "data nerd" so I really appreciate the reporting. I am only a few days into operation but already, the micro inverter benefits are proving to be extremely valuable as I learn the behaviors of the various zones on my roof.

            Bankruptcy, read the link for a more elaborate analysis, it makes a lot of sense and gave me confidence about their future.
            http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/0...ruptcy-or.aspx

            I am happy with my decision to use Sunpower products and Green Convergence to manage the installation and support.

            Admin Note, your starting to sound like a referral farmer, please dont go down that road
            While I believe S.P. is going to stay viable for awhile, Travis Hoium, the Motley Fool person with respect to reporting solar, is a Sunpower shill and has been for a long time. It's all sweetness & light with him, puking the company line about most efficient, best warranty - the usual pap, even more brazen than the usual financial advice peddlers.

            Comment


            • #11
              I would like to throw in two cents- I am not big on micro inverters but with the SPR system, consumption monitoring is included with the module level monitoring.
              I have installed one and it seems to work nicely for the client.
              33-CS6P250,1-SMA6000US,SMAwebconn,Egauge

              Comment


              • #12
                Originally posted by mccain View Post
                I found out something else interesting... The SunPower guarantee on their modules have a -0/+10 % of the nameplate ratting for power production of DC to AC. I believe no other company does this. I think they are more like a minimum of -5% of nameplate. SunPower seems to have a minimum threshold of 0 . It sounds like SunPower modules stand by their nameplate rating and then some as opposed to other companies. What do you think?
                I'd respectfully suggest keep reading/digging. I'm not quite sure what your DC to AC power production refers to. You may be referring to the PTC output or some other alphabet soup rating #. An easy check on that is through the equipment listings in the CSI database. The PTC output for the S.P. 327 is somewhere between 301 and 308 Watts. For the 345 Watt panel, about 320 to 323 Watts. As for other mfgs., an LG 300, for example, has a PTC output of between 272 and 279 Watts. Quality panels seem to have a PTC rating of about 92 % or so of STC rating, wit S.P. in that pack.

                My S.P. 327's power tolerance is +5/-3 % on the data sheet in force when I bought them. Other mfgs. are +/- 5/0 %, or -0/+3 % of nameplate, or whatever. They are all over the place, but usually within a range of +/- 5 % or less. Although it may exist, I have not seen a -0/+10 % power tolerance. As an example of solar ignorance, and more to the point, read the fine print and try to make sense of it, on MY S.P.'s, product warranty, the wording shenanigans pretty much handle the +5 % and mostly get rid of it, depending on how the wording and definitions are interpreted. Besides, how is anyone going to verify a greater or lesser output ?

                FWIW, the last S.P. datasheet I looked at about 10 minutes ago, dated 03/2016, showed a power output tolerance of +5/-0 % on a 345 Watt panel. Same for the older and popular 327 Watt panel.

                Comment


                • #13
                  Lots of manufacturers do the 0,+3% power tolerance in their specs. Quit believing all the SP hype.
                  BSEE, R11, NABCEP, Chevy BoltEV, >3000kW installed

                  Comment


                  • ButchDeal
                    ButchDeal commented
                    Editing a comment
                    yep it is simple. They all have one line. They Try to make X watt modules on the line. At the end of the line is a flash test. The ones tat are > than X watts in the flash test go one bin and are marked as X watt STC -0,+3%
                    The ones that are < X but > X - 5 watts go to a bin and are marked (X-5) watts STC -0,+3%
                    the ones that are < X-5 but > X-10 watts go to a bin and are marked (X-10) watts STC -0,+3%
                    the rest go to seconds and rejects piles
                    Thats why you see companies sell (for example) 260, 265, and 270 watt modules of the same model.

                    BTW, this is how CPUs are done as well, they try to make fast ones, those that get too many errors at the test on highest clock speed, will slow the clock down and try again. if they can't get past the tests at any clock speed they go into reject pile.

                  • billy1
                    billy1 commented
                    Editing a comment
                    That's very interesting ButchDeal, it seems that reputation is a big deal when picking PV manufactures., I head SolarWorld rounds down where a 284 watt goes into the 280 watt bin, 289 watt goes into the 285 watt bin.
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