Enphase Battery?

[russ]

Asking questions isn't dumb Russ, nor is asking someone to share how they reached their conclusion. Dumb would be something like saying an idea is "total stupidity"

When a law is made with no practical path forward it is total stupidity. The representatives know they can always change the game later.

Many questions asked are stupid - to say otherwise places yourself in the group making those questions.

[Samsolar]

You asked a question for which there is no answer today - a dumb question in reality.

The 97% you refer to - do you give lawmakers credit for knowing their ass from a hole in the ground? If so you give them too much credit. They vote for what gets them re-elected - whether it makes sense or not. Remember - most are probably lawyers which gives them a terrible disadvantage as far as having any common sense.

Asking questions isn't dumb Russ, nor is asking someone to share how they reached their conclusion. Dumb would be something like saying an idea is "total stupidity" and then admitting that there isn't any information that supports your conclusion. "You asked a question for which there is no answer today" I'm willing to bet you did nothing more than read a headline and perhaps scan a news article. Did you take a look at the bill itself? (HB623)

As for the Hawaiian lawmakers, you are partially right, some (not most) are lawyers. Some are also former military, mothers, fathers, grandparents, business owners, CPAs and teachers. I suppose they are all also common sense challenged as you allege? If so, you are going to need a wider brush to paint with!

[bberry]

Nuclear is dead and buried based on pure economics, according to nuclear industry managers.

What managers?

If I told you, you would call me a liar.

[bberry]

Talk about changing the scope to suit your BS line! Virtually no more available hydro locations available.

An Assessment of Energy Potential from New Stream-reach Development in the United States led by DOE's Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) provides a national picture of the remaining new hydropower development opportunities in U.S. rivers and streams. This study leverages recent advances in national geospatial data sets to provide the highest fidelity national study yet, including the identification of social, economic, and environmental attributes of the stream reaches in addition to the technical power potential. The assessment concluded that the technical resource potential is 85 GW of capacity. When federally protected lands—national parks, national wild and scenic rivers, and wilderness areas—are excluded, the potential is over 65 GW of capacity or 347 TWh/year of generation.

http://energy.gov/eere/water/hydropower-resource-assessment-and-characterization

[bberry]

I do understand the economics as well as what it takes to provide electrical power 24/7. I also know that while some countries are stupid and scared of nuclear other countries are moving forward with building new Third generation plants.

What are those "thousands of places" using to run 24/7 just on RE? What is their peak kw demand at night?

We are talking about Hawaii not some remote villages on islands or in Africa & Asia. Even Germany uses coal fired generation at night or purchases power from other countries that use fossil fuel and as far as I understand they have the highest % of RE installed which will not provide power 24/7.

It comes down to how much electricity people use at night. Cities and developed countries have many buildings and highways that are lit up. Millions of people run their TVs and computers at night along with AC systems and electric stoves.

I am sure those small villages do not use or need much electricity at night because they don't have these luxury items that most people in the US have and use.

I understand your passion in wanting to eliminate all fossil fuel burning but the "economics" to do so around this country and the world says different. The cost to abandon fossil fuel is too high and until RE and energy storage become much less expensive fossil fuel power generation will be around a long time.

I have no passion to eliminate fossil fuel. Getting the use well down is good enough.

Nuclear is dead based on pure economics. The noise you hear is simply the asset owners trying to extend the life as long as possible.

And again, you simply do not understand the cost curves of technology vs. fuel. Even low tech manufactured goods follow a log/log cost curve. The trend of even batteries is considerably better than basic manufacturing. You can't dig up increasingly rare fuel and compete with a downward exponential cost curve.

The price of PV falls 20% with every doubling of installed watts. Batteries appear similiar. Volume reduces price which incentivises more volume. That's why in the early days subsidies are needed. That's why, at a point, RE technologies blow away fuel. We are already past that point in some places.

Most of everything you see and use was built in the last 50 years. Yet power generation can't be substantially rebuilt over 30 years?

[russ]

Hoover Dam.

Talk about changing the scope to suit your BS line! Virtually no more available hydro locations available.

[russ]

Nuclear is dead and buried based on pure economics, according to nuclear industry managers.

What managers?

First coal plants will not be replaced, then nuclear, then gas plants. This will happen fast enough that some assets will be stranded. Smart utility people understand that some generation companies are screwed. Smart utilities people sure leaves you out.

If you are genuinely interested, you need to look at the numbers and understand cost curves. You need to understand the fundamental difference between fuel and technology.

Look your self - your entire line is green BS.

I learned long back - never bother to be nice to a fool.

[russ]

bberry - You post 3$ worth of BS in a 2$ bag.

Hawaii won't be "off grid". They will at least have PV, wind and geothermal. They may have hydro and synfuel. They will overbuild wind, and possibly PV, and pump hydro if that approach is the most cost effective. Right - where to pump the hydro? Overbuliding wind and solar only works with storage

Most importantly are the forward cost curves of renewables, which are a technology, compared to oil and gas, which are fuels. Technology has an exponential cost curve, something anyone truly interested in the future of power needs to understand. Again, 3$ worth of BS in the 2$ bag - there is a small problem with tech that it has to be "ready to go" tech.

Back to Enphase; consider the impact of requiring every new solar install to include a small amount of storage. The PV industry takes growth into their own hands by pushing for residential storage requirements. Enpase is in an odd position They are (seemingly) poorly positioned technically for storage. But the best way to push residential solar beyond low percentages is to put a small amount of storage behind the meter. The same 3$ problem - you chatter but with no meaning.

Utility installed storage is more cost effective, but the PV industry can't count on utilities cooperating. So I don't think storage is mostly about companies like Solarcity selling more stuff. I think it's about realistically getting residential solar to be a high percentage of an areas total power.

If storage worked the utilities would be doing it and they will be first in line - to make the satement you did is silly.

[SunEagle]

There are thousands of places in the world that run on just RE without generator backup. Including small islands in Hawaii.

Nuclear is dead and buried based on pure economics, according to nuclear industry managers. First coal plants will not be replaced, then nuclear, then gas plants. This will happen fast enough that some assets will be stranded. Smart utility people understand that some generation companies are screwed.

If you are genuinely interested, you need to look at the numbers and understand cost curves. You need to understand the fundamental difference between fuel and technology.

I do understand the economics as well as what it takes to provide electrical power 24/7. I also know that while some countries are stupid and scared of nuclear other countries are moving forward with building new Third generation plants.

What are those "thousands of places" using to run 24/7 just on RE? What is their peak kw demand at night?

We are talking about Hawaii not some remote villages on islands or in Africa & Asia. Even Germany uses coal fired generation at night or purchases power from other countries that use fossil fuel and as far as I understand they have the highest % of RE installed which will not provide power 24/7.

It comes down to how much electricity people use at night. Cities and developed countries have many buildings and highways that are lit up. Millions of people run their TVs and computers at night along with AC systems and electric stoves.

I am sure those small villages do not use or need much electricity at night because they don't have these luxury items that most people in the US have and use.

I understand your passion in wanting to eliminate all fossil fuel burning but the "economics" to do so around this country and the world says different. The cost to abandon fossil fuel is too high and until RE and energy storage become much less expensive fossil fuel power generation will be around a long time.

[bberry]

Ok Hydro is both RE and can run 24/7 but that type of electrical producing source is limited in output and location.

You know I was referring to solar pv and wind as the RE power generators, and they have not proven to work to produce 100% of the electrical demand 24/7 anywhere in the world.

Now nuclear is not RE but can run 24/7 and there are dozens of the existing plants that can easily generate the 2000MW that Hoover Dam is generating.

Without some large load shedding at night by the people, running the state 100% on RE (pv, wind, hydro, battery, etc) will be very hard and expensive to do.

There are thousands of places in the world that run on just RE without generator backup. Including small islands in Hawaii.

Nuclear is dead and buried based on pure economics, according to nuclear industry managers. First coal plants will not be replaced, then nuclear, then gas plants. This will happen fast enough that some assets will be stranded. Smart utility people understand that some generation companies are screwed.

If you are genuinely interested, you need to look at the numbers and understand cost curves. You need to understand the fundamental difference between fuel and technology.

[SunEagle]

Hoover Dam.

Ok Hydro is both RE and can run 24/7 but that type of electrical producing source is limited in output and location.

You know I was referring to solar pv and wind as the RE power generators, and they have not proven to work to produce 100% of the electrical demand 24/7 anywhere in the world.

Now nuclear is not RE but can run 24/7 and there are dozens of the existing plants that can easily generate the 2000MW that Hoover Dam is generating.

Without some large load shedding at night by the people, running the state 100% on RE (pv, wind, hydro, battery, etc) will be very hard and expensive to do.

[bberry]

First off RE doesn't currently provide power 24/7. That is fact.

Hoover Dam.

[bberry]

Most off grid folks know the rules,

Hawaii won't be "off grid". They will at least have PV, wind and geothermal. They may have hydro and synfuel. They will overbuild wind, and possibly PV, and pump hydro if that approach is the most cost effective.

Most importantly are the forward cost curves of renewables, which are a technology, compared to oil and gas, which are fuels. Technology has an exponential cost curve, something anyone truly interested in the future of power needs to understand.

Back to Enphase; consider the impact of requiring every new solar install to include a small amount of storage. The PV industry takes growth into their own hands by pushing for residential storage requirements. Enpase is in an odd position They are (seemingly) poorly positioned technically for storage. But the best way to push residential solar beyond low percentages is to put a small amount of storage behind the meter.

Utility installed storage is more cost effective, but the PV industry can't count on utilities cooperating. So I don't think storage is mostly about companies like Solarcity selling more stuff. I think it's about realistically getting residential solar to be a high percentage of an areas total power.

[SunEagle]

Just be clear, you feel you have a handle on what RE in Hawaii will look like in 30 years? I'll raise my hand and say I don't, but since you do, please tell us how each of the horses in the energy race will be doing. How much will storage systems cost in 30 years? A barrel of oil? Environmental regs?

First off RE doesn't currently provide power 24/7. That is fact.

Secondly while there may be a "future" battery that works the research for it has been going on for decades already from some very smart people without much success of finding one that is economical and big enough to handle the Gigawatts of energy needed when the sun isn't shining.

Oil prices go up and down and Environmental regulations change like the wind and are hard to enforce. Besides they won't be the true motivator to drive RE to become the only power source.

I feel that somewhere it will finally dawn on people that if you want to use less fossil fuel to generate electricity then you need to focus on nuclear again. That will get you power 24/7 and doesn't produce CO2 if that is what you are worried about.

But as you said neither you or I have a crystal ball to clearly see the future. A big breakthrough may be just around the corner or not.

Anyone that makes a claim to rely on 100% of anything is making a foolish statement that will be hard to meet.

It doesn't really matter to me because I will be 92 in 2045 and may not see what really happens in Hawaii then.

[solar pete]

Howdy,

I had a look at that 100% RE target and had a bit of a laugh at first. Then I started to think about the price of power over there and the very long pie in the sky timetable for it and thought you beauty the incentive is going to be there for a bunch more solar to be installed, happy days