Solar to provide 20% of energy by 2027

[SunEagle]

no more than 8 years...

For what? Fast Breeder or 20% RE?

[SunEagle]

No, not practically in most places in the US. You could do it in the Northwest due to their heavy reliance on hydro. If you include breeder reactors as "renewables" (i.e. LFTR's) then it's possible in most places.

I just read an article that Japan is looking at both 4th generation and fast breeder reactors for power generation.

[Fuler Gigs]

no more than 8 years...

[jflorey2]

Anyway, do you agree now that it's clearly possible to get to something like 90% renewable energy?

No, not practically in most places in the US. You could do it in the Northwest due to their heavy reliance on hydro. If you include breeder reactors as "renewables" (i.e. LFTR's) then it's possible in most places.

[SunEagle]

We don't need to hit 100% clean energy everywhere always.
It's enough to take advantage of clean resources where and when they're available to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other pollution.
So, at times and places where there is sun, wind, hydro, or geothermal energy, let's use it to reduce pollution.
If there isn't, let's use the next best thing, which might be natural gas. Make sense?

Actually nuclear power has no carbon output so I would vote that being the next or even first best if it matters.

[DanKegel]

In some states the weather can result in "days" of little to no sun. Now where does the power come if you have no wind energy or allow transmission lines from other states to bring it in?

We don't need to hit 100% clean energy everywhere always.
It's enough to take advantage of clean resources where and when they're available to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other pollution.
So, at times and places where there is sun, wind, hydro, or geothermal energy, let's use it to reduce pollution.
If there isn't, let's use the next best thing, which might be natural gas. Make sense?

[Sunking]

You also keep forgetting one big item. In some states the weather can result in "days" of little to no sun. Now where does the power come if you have no wind energy or allow transmission lines from other states to bring it in?

Dan could care less. All Dan wants to do is destroy the country he hates. Dan nothing is keeping you here. Move to Cuba.

[SunEagle]

Oh, we don't need them to operate 24/7; they need to soak up power during the day, and spit it out in the evening peak hours. That's enough to reduce need for gas peakers significantly.


Anyway, do you agree now that it's clearly possible to get to something like 90% renewable energy? Whether a country does it comes down to cost, science, and politics, I think. (Although of course as we ramp up, engineers will keep bringing down the cost, don't want to minimize the need for more engineering. Just trying to say no technical miracles or quantum leaps are needed, we've got the basic tools we need already.)

You said earlier:


http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/67142.pdf shows it was at 61 cents a watt at the end of Q1 2016, so it doesn't seem like solar has stopped getting cheaper yet. Rough market for solar panel makers...

Dan

While the state of CA may be moving in a hurry toward more RE most of the other BLUE state are pushing back on a lot of RE measures like wind, and HV transmission lines. Yes they are adding more solar but being in the North they get less sunlight and more snow thus reducing the amount of time to run anything during the day and charge batteries for night. Where will they get there electricity the rest of the time? They may want "clean" energy but they also seem to have the attitude of "not in my backyard". They will never get close to 50% let alone 90%.

You also keep forgetting one big item. In some states the weather can result in "days" of little to no sun. Now where does the power come if you have no wind energy or allow transmission lines from other states to bring it in?

[DanKegel]

Modern 100MW solar power towers which use molten salt and can store energy for use all
night are commercially available; several are in operation already.


None that I know of operate can operate at full power 24/7

Oh, we don't need them to operate 24/7; they need to soak up power during the day, and spit it out in the evening peak hours. That's enough to reduce need for gas peakers significantly.


Anyway, do you agree now that it's clearly possible to get to something like 90% renewable energy? Whether a country does it comes down to cost, science, and politics, I think. (Although of course as we ramp up, engineers will keep bringing down the cost, don't want to minimize the need for more engineering. Just trying to say no technical miracles or quantum leaps are needed, we've got the basic tools we need already.)

You said earlier:

I don't think solar is going to get much cheaper. It bottomed out at about 70 cents a watt (panels only) and has since rebounded a bit.

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/67142.pdf shows it was at 61 cents a watt at the end of Q1 2016, so it doesn't seem like solar has stopped getting cheaper yet. Rough market for solar panel makers...

[DanKegel]

Yep. Mine too. It's those 10% of days that the utility has to plan for that costs all that money.

Right, and the nighttime. But the question was, how do we get to a very high percentage of our energy needs covered by renewable energy, right? I apologize if I was stating the obvious, but you were asking how it was possible, and I was listing the things that contribute to making it possible.

[DanKegel]

Actions are always stronger then words.

Right, then, let's see how much PV India, China, and the US installed in 2015:
http://www.iea-pvps.org/fileadmin/da..._2016_-_mr.pdf
says
China 15 GW
Japan 10,8 GW
USA 7,3 GW
UK 4,1 GW
India 2,1 GW

I'd say China's cooperating nicely there, and given how poor India is, they're not doing bad at all.

It'd be sad if we discouraged that cooperation by badmouthing renewable energy and winding down our national commitment to it, but it appears that's what's being promised.

I do understand that populist rulers like to say things that are divorced from reality to fire up their base, and so one should wait to see what actually happens... but the badmouthing cannot possibly be improving the climate of distrust you were talking about.

[jflorey2]

And as I mentioned, my system is also oversized, and provides enough daytime power on well over 90% of days

Yep. Mine too. It's those 10% of days that the utility has to plan for that costs all that money.

[DanKegel]

"During even overcast days, PV can provide enough energy; you just have to have enough panels and/or transmission lines."

When you say things like this it makes me wonder if you have any experience with solar. You say that you do; strange.

Maybe I was unclear. I was trying to say that solar can cover a particular daytime load on a large percentage of days
if the array is large enough and/or you have enough transmission lines to reach an area with better illumination.
Even without transmission lines reaching over to the next state, you can reduce the number of days
when PV is insufficient for daytime loads as low as you like by making the array bigger.

bcroe did this with his system -- it's oversized to provide enough power even on most cloudy days, if I recall correctly.

And as I mentioned, my system is also oversized, and provides enough daytime power on well over 90% of days,
even overcast ones. My time-of-use net meter says I've used 11 kWh during peak daytime hours in the last eight months,
despite rainy days.

Make more sense now? I don't think that point was saying anything surprising.

[SunEagle]

India, China, and the United States are currently all cooperating very nicely to increase deployment of clean energy and reduce future carbon emissions; all three are investing heavily to move towards carbon-free sources of energy.

However, the official policy of the United States is about to make a U-turn; the president-elect wrote


So, while there will probably be a lack of cooperation on renewable energy, India and China will probably continue cooperating on it as they have been (as will California); it's the United States which will probably stop cooperating... at least for four or so years.[/COLOR]

Dan. You strike me as an intelligent person. Do you truly believe everything you read and hear that is being posted in the media and other news outlets from around the world as being solid enough to take it to the bank?

I am not saying that India and China are not making some concessions to reducing their carbon footprint but you do understand that to save face "heads of state" have to say things in public but then will do what is necessary behind the scenes to keep their country moving forward.

Cooperation comes in many forms. Actions are always stronger then words.

[jflorey2]

The EU is an existence proof for having a high standard of living with less than half the power, so that's clearly possible (but not easy).

Sure - and even easier if most people live in apartments.

2. During even overcast days, PV can provide enough energy; you just have to have enough panels and/or transmission lines.

When you say things like this it makes me wonder if you have any experience with solar. You say that you do; strange.

3. Wind is usually blowing somewhere; you just need to have enough wind turbines and/or transmission lines.

Transmission lines are the key here. HVDC transmission can help there but to do it on a countrywide basis (which is what you'd need) you are talking hundreds of billions, if not trillions.
. . .

7. Modern 100MW solar power towers which use molten salt and can store energy for use all
night are commercially available; several are in operation already.

None that I know of operate can operate at full power 24/7. Some can operate with additional natural gas input - but we already have those.

There are certainly ways to do this. By far the simplest/fastest is to add a lot of nuclear capacity for baseline generation, use natural gas for peakers and use renewables for opportunistic energy harvesting. Unfortunately there's a lot of resistance to that (and almost all on the nuclear slice.)