Tesla solar roof - orders being taken next week

[peakbagger]

My speculations

They will sell it as lifetime roof solution similar to standing seam galvalume roofing

They will compare against 20 year asphalt shingles

Thus 5 new shingle roofs plus disposal costs for the old shingles compared to one Tesla roof.

I expect the federal 30% tax credit will also be used to subsidize the cost of the entire roof even though north facing roofs sure don't get a lot of sun exposure in my area.

The numbers will work just about as well as a 100K Tesla paying itself off in fuel savings Someone is buying Tesla cars and expect those same folks will buy a Tesla Solar roof. Usually there are early adopters that pay whatever it will cost just so they can say they were first and expect there will be folks with extra income who buy it just because its green. An of course for us Sci Fi folks we all need to buy one to support the local Road network (caution a very obscure reference to Robert Heinlein's the Roads Must Roll wherein society had replaced all the power plants with roof integrated solar panels on all buildings)

By the way the trick with standing seam roofs to their long life (at least in my area) is that most installers got sick of call back for leaks and now install a rubberized asphalt underlayment (grace storm shield )under the standing seam material . Even it the standing seam leaks, any water that gets underneath runs down under the standing seam on top of the storm shield and drips out at the fascia trim As long as the storm shield is kept out of UV it lasts a very long time, far longer than any contractor will be in business. I expect that Tesla roof installers will figure that out pretty quick. Of course a solar roof is going to have numerous lead wires that need to penetrate the underlying membrane unless they have wiring channels that dump out to a covered gutter so who knows how they are going guarantee a long term water tight seal?

I look forward to real documentation but expect installs and documentation might be restricted to dealers dumb enough to get on the bandwagon. If I remember correctly a solar junk merchant in Florida was given away solar shingles last year for the cost of freight to empty his warehouse.

[SunEagle]

Since information seems a bit sparse on the product/system at this time, FWIW, I intend to wait and see :

1.) IF a product is produced. 2.) IF it makes it to a roof. 3.) What any collected data looks like. 4.) How it holds up.

Until I see a product actually hit the market, seems a lot of B.S. to me, like tourism to the moon.

What's the matter. You don't want to pay the 50 cents now for the side show that may show up next year?

[J.P.M.]

Since information seems a bit sparse on the product/system at this time, FWIW, I intend to wait and see :

1.) IF a product is produced. 2.) IF it makes it to a roof. 3.) What any collected data looks like. 4.) How it holds up.

Until I see a product actually hit the market, seems a lot of B.S. to me, like tourism to the moon.

[SunEagle]

Really? Cheaper and more durable than the standard roofing choice on 80% of the homes in the US? And they produce electricity too? I guess the asphalt shingle roofing business is doomed.

OH NO!!!. I use to work for a company in that type of business. What will my friends do if they are put out of work? Oh the Humanity.

[azdave]

According to what I have seen, probably propaganda but still, the prototype shingles they have tested are cheaper and more durable than regular asphalt shingles.

Really? Cheaper and more durable than the standard roofing choice on 80% of the homes in the US? And they produce electricity too? I guess the asphalt shingle roofing business is doomed.

[DanKegel]

... not that aesthetic unless you do 100% of your roof with them.

That's for sure. I think he has 100% reroofing jobs in mind.

[solarix]

I'm very skeptical of the Tesla solar shingles. I'll bet they are expensive, unreliable, not delivered on time, and not that aesthetic unless you do 100% of your roof with them.

[adoublee]

A few large companies like Dow have had the same type product on the market, all failed and bankrupt due to warranty claims.

Guess it depends on the definition of same. I think most would agree the aesthetics of this not-yet-real product are far superior to anything that has come before. That doesn't mean it won't be another entry in the scrap heap of failed BIPV products should it even come to market.

[Sunking]

A few large companies like Dow have had the same type product on the market, all failed and bankrupt due to warranty claims.

[Laspher]

That would be some pretty creative accounting

That is the shingles only, that doesn't include the cost of the rest of the Tesla system that you would probably need for it all to work.

[peakbagger]

According to what I have seen, probably propaganda but still, the prototype shingles they have tested are cheaper and more durable than regular asphalt shingles. I haven't seen anything about output, but considering most houses (my included run east/west) would only have PV on one half of the roof. A north/south running house could get shingles on both sides for better output.

That would be some pretty creative accounting

[Laspher]

According to what I have seen, probably propaganda but still, the prototype shingles they have tested are cheaper and more durable than regular asphalt shingles. I haven't seen anything about output, but considering most houses (mine included run east/west) would only have PV on one half of the roof. A north/south running house could get shingles on both sides for better output.

[SunEagle]

Depends on where they plan on making those "shingles" If they are coming out of the factory in Buffalo I would say don't hold your breath. If they are coming out of one of the other solar panel plants it could be sooner.

The problem that DOW had was getting their shingles certified by the building codes in most states so they could be used on homes and meet wind codes. It took years to do that. And then it only took a few years to find out that the failure rate was pretty high due to heat fatigue and poor pv output.

Tesla has to get over some pretty big hurdles to get their "shingles" recognized as BOCA certified, then produce them at a cost that makes sense to compete with the roofing & solar pv panel industry. IMO that is a long up hill battle.

[J.P.M.]

The article is referring to the much hyped solar roof for a house not for an automobile

OOPS ! Guess I shoulda' read/scanned the article first. Ready/fire/aim applies. My bad.

[peakbagger]

Given the small amount of irradiance available to a vehicle roof due to the small area when compared to the relatively large energy requirement of the vehicle, and unless the option is free, that may be another way to separate ignorant fools from their money.

The article is referring to the much hyped solar roof for a house not for an automobile