Your input on my situation is much appreciated!

[solarbogle]

Thanks for all the input and discussion on this. You are guys are awesome, great site.

[Ian S]

I don't put much/any stock in to the warranty/maintenance benefit of a prepaid lease. I did have an ARC fault breaker fail on my inverter and the leasing company called the inverter manufacturer and handled the warranty replacement. I didn't have to do anything, it was a very painless process but I bet it would have been pretty easy with a purchased system too.

The warranty/maintenance benefit of the lease I would argue is more in the out years after manufacturers' warranties run out. Which brings up an interesting point. If you sell your home say at year 12, at or after the time when most warranties - with the exception of the panels - have run out, do you think the buyer would prefer the purchased system where he can expect to pay for an inverter replacement in the near future or the prepaid lease system where such failures are covered for the next 8 years?

[prhamilton]

You have a nice purchase price. If the pre-paid and purchase are roughly equivalent I would purchase. For the record I purchased a system on my house 5 years ago. I moved recently and installed a pre-paid lease system on the new house so I've done both. The first time I wanted to purchase, I didn't like the idea of all the paperwork with a prepaid lease. The second time I did more reading about the pre-paid lease and was more open to the idea. I got about a 10% discount below a straight purchase with the prepaid so it made sense for me. If you can't get between 5-10% discount over the purchase price I would be inclined to do a straight purchase, limit the risk and limit the number of parties you are dealing with.

The biggest risk with working with these leasing companies(like Sunrun and Sungevity) is that installer is 'hidden' from you. They have a network of installers they subcontract out to. Going into the process I didn't realize that, I was very happy with the installer selected for me but it feels a little bit like a crapshoot and you lose some control. During the install there was some weirdness with the leasing company doing the design and permits. It eventually worked itself out but it took a couple of days and several phone calls. When you purchase a system the guy designing it is the guy that comes out to your house, he sees everything with his own eyes, a preferable arrangement.

I don't put much/any stock in to the warranty/maintenance benefit of a prepaid lease. I did have an ARC fault breaker fail on my inverter and the leasing company called the inverter manufacturer and handled the warranty replacement. I didn't have to do anything, it was a very painless process but I bet it would have been pretty easy with a purchased system too.

You can ready other threads about FMV of the system at the end of lease, there's a lot of debate about it but the answer is $0.

[SunEagle]

ok maybe in Hawaii... but I'd pay 55c to live there.. but in ny?? I'm on long island, and I thought we were home to the highest rates in the continental US... I pay 21c... all in...taxes/delivery/dinners/girls for the ceo...

con ed is a tad cheaper... so still not sure how u get your numbers...

bronxnua might have all types of other charges he is paying for based on what rate structure he is signed up for.

Besides my electric usage, fuel cost, meter charge and taxes I also pay $7.48/month for a surge suppression equipment that will either stop any "spikes" getting into the home through the electrical service or my POCO pays for the damages. That fee increases the overall $/kWh calculation by about 3/4 a cent/kWh.

Each POCO has slightly different charge rate and fees so someone could be spending a lot more a month when you total it all up which calculates to a much higher $/kWh then their neighbors.

[J.P.M.]

No solar leasing company passes on the saving. The point of solar leasing and PPA is to extract the potential benefits, including subsidies, from the homeowner.

By the beginning of the next decade home solar will provide $.03/kWh electricity to homes with sunny roofs. A proper purchase/lease decision has to include falling self generation costs.

Someone should build a spreadsheet with likely future cost scenarios.

I'm of an opinion that "passing on the savings" is a marketing tool used to rope in the solar ignorant. If anything is passed on in terms of savings it is due to competitive market forces applied by other solar purveyors who have no interest in selling any lower than they need. I'm also of the opinion that many who believe savings are passed on in any measureable way will also be good candidates to buy a bridge.

As for future prices or the future of solar generated electricity, I, like most everyone else, because the future is unknown, have no clue.

Seems to me the best way to prepare is to use less, and in so doing, lessen the impact of whatever happens.

A lot of people "build spreadsheets". I have, as I'm pretty sure many others have done. Since most every situation is different, and probably because most of us solar geeks are not financially savvy, such efforts are often of limited or dubious value - especially when the limited interpretive abilities of most potential users of the output of such efforts is considered.

I know enough about such things to be dangerous, and, no insult/offense intended, but I'm pretty sure it involves a little more than "someone should build a spreadsheet" would seem to imply.

Part of what we're discussing here is known by, and deals with an area, that goes by various names: Financial analysis, process economics, life cycle costing, the time value of money, comparison of alternatives, L.C.O.E. analysis, etc., to name a few.

Most folks' idea of solar financial analysis is limited to initial cost divided by initial potential annual savings. That may be one figure of merit, but to use that as the only measure may not result in the best outcome, financially, or practically.

[donald]

Perfect example of leasing that makes sense, since the company is allowed to take the tax credit and pass on the savings. Works the same when leasing an EV. Hopefully the $207/month pays all your electricity use too.

No solar leasing company passes on the saving. The point of solar leasing and PPA is to extract the potential benefits, including subsidies, from the homeowner.

By the beginning of the next decade home solar will provide $.03/kWh electricity to homes with sunny roofs. A proper purchase/lease decision has to include falling self generation costs.

Someone should build a spreadsheet with likely future cost scenarios.

[paris401]

$.55 per kWh is not unreasonable for Hawaii, and may be an incremental rate for some areas with combined TOU and tier pricing.
And don't forget access charges, taxes, etc that come in addition to the per kWh rate.

ok maybe in Hawaii... but I'd pay 55c to live there.. but in ny?? I'm on long island, and I thought we were home to the highest rates in the continental US... I pay 21c... all in...taxes/delivery/dinners/girls for the ceo...

con ed is a tad cheaper... so still not sure how u get your numbers...

[inetdog]

what am I missing??.. that's 55c... that's impossible... I think lipa here on long island is the most $$$ in the usa at 21c

$.55 per kWh is not unreasonable for Hawaii, and may be an incremental rate for some areas with combined TOU and tier pricing.
And don't forget access charges, taxes, etc that come in addition to the per kWh rate.

[Willaby]

Depending on when you use that 600 kWh/mo., on T.O.U. 2 a 4.5 kW system may be a bit or more oversized. With low shading & decent orientation, a 4.5 kW system ought to yield about that much output - SWAG ~ 7,500 - 8,000 kWh/yr., but, as you suggest, w/min. on peak use, the revenue from the system will be a fair amount more than what you're billed for.

FWIW, on a "site inspection": Usually and commonly solar vendors will probably underestimate annual output by 10+ % to oversell you. Your choice - just know when/if you're getting B.S.'d. Run PVWatts / a 8-10% system loss and check back here before you pull the trigger.

W/net metering, the summer zeroing out will not be a consideration. true up is 1X/yr.

How much of that 600 kWh/mo. does the EV take ?

W/~ $0.49/kWh on peak summer rate (but note that the winter on peak rate is < half that) T.O.U. can be your friend, mostly because it allows a smaller system size to produce more revenue than the lower expense that will be incurred by heads' up time shifting of loads.

Thanks, I think I'm roughly in line with your calcs. I've got a perfect 180 roof with <10% shading, but that shade is in the morning. The 12-6pm peak has no shade and this is a big plus. My quotes are for 12-14 panels, but I'm thinking 14-16 would be good to lock in now and only ~$1k more (I'm overselling myself ). You never know, the lease on a Spark is only $129 w/zero down.

My Volt only takes ~200kw/month and we don't use AC or heat much at all. I do charge at work, maybe 50kw/month. Our roof has been an issue. I've got true clay tile which makes for a costly install. That is what they are looking at tomorrow. I will likely go with tile hooks for the racks and I will cover a reasonable amount of broken tiles.

[Willaby]

I have no proof, but I seriously doubt that any leasing co. passes that 30% on to the mark. Part of it maybe, but only as much as the market/competition requires and not one red cent more. My cynicism is such that I bet they don't pass any of it along, any more than they talk about the sweetheart accelerated depreciation they get but Joe 6 pack is unable to take advantage of, and is for the most part, utterly clueless about.

I'd agree if it was a car lease type, but these Solar leases are not truly a lease, except by name. They simply facilitate the pass through of the tax credit. The tax credit is only available to the purchaser (Sun Run) and in the OP's example he gave us the purchase price and the lease cost, so they are passing it on (at least most of it). If not for this "lease" it wouldn't ROI for those in low tax brackets to go solar. To truly be a lease, the residual buyout would need to be close to FMV (car lease), but it is probably a trivial amount.

In business, in most cases, these leases would be required to be booked as a purchase per Gov and GAAP rules. It might be called a lease, but it represents a purchase.

[J.P.M.]

Perfect example of leasing that makes sense, since the company is allowed to take the tax credit and pass on the savings. Works the same when leasing an EV. Hopefully the $207/month pays all your electricity use too.

I have no proof, but I seriously doubt that any leasing co. passes that 30% on to the mark. Part of it maybe, but only as much as the market/competition requires and not one red cent more. My cynicism is such that I bet they don't pass any of it along, any more than they talk about the sweetheart accelerated depreciation they get but Joe 6 pack is unable to take advantage of, and is for the most part, utterly clueless about.

[J.P.M.]

Congrats on that! I've got an EV (Volt). On the TOU2 plan here in San Diego, I only need to produce 2/3 of my KW usage to zero my bill in the summer. We have 49c/kw peak here! I'm getting my site inspection tomorrow. I only use 600kw/mo so I'm looking at a 4.5kw system.

Depending on when you use that 600 kWh/mo., on T.O.U. 2 a 4.5 kW system may be a bit or more oversized. With low shading & decent orientation, a 4.5 kW system ought to yield about that much output - SWAG ~ 7,500 - 8,000 kWh/yr., but, as you suggest, w/min. on peak use, the revenue from the system will be a fair amount more than what you're billed for.

FWIW, on a "site inspection": Usually and commonly solar vendors will probably underestimate annual output by 10+ % to oversell you. Your choice - just know when/if you're getting B.S.'d. Run PVWatts / a 8-10% system loss and check back here before you pull the trigger.

W/net metering, the summer zeroing out will not be a consideration. true up is 1X/yr.

How much of that 600 kWh/mo. does the EV take ?

W/~ $0.49/kWh on peak summer rate (but note that the winter on peak rate is < half that) T.O.U. can be your friend, mostly because it allows a smaller system size to produce more revenue than the lower expense that will be incurred by heads' up time shifting of loads.

[bronxnua]

Works out like if I use $100 of Electricity my bill is $350.

[bronxnua]

what am I missing??.. that's 55c... that's impossible... I think lipa here on long island is the most $$$ in the usa at 21c

That is crazy.. I pay fixed 8.9 per KWH from my ESCO, Con Edison charges me delivery and all other taxes and fees that are about .35 per kwh.

[paris401]

I last month use 789 KWH, my bill was over $434 .

what am I missing??.. that's 55c... that's impossible... I think lipa here on long island is the most $$$ in the usa at 21c