California sales of household batteries predicted to grow in 2020

[Ampster]

On a side note, has anyone heard anything about what's going on with CA net-metering 3.0? Supposedly they were planning on introducing 3.0 early in 2020.

I saw a brief discussion on one site that said that is being delayed until later in the year.

[PugPower]

On a side note, has anyone heard anything about what's going on with CA net-metering 3.0? Supposedly they were planning on introducing 3.0 early in 2020.

[Ampster]

Perhaps one (of many) possible future scenarios for grid/residential interface would have most electricity needs met by on site battery storage with POCO's charging such mostly "independent" users a fee that's mostly or entirely free of any charges for delivered power but high enough to cover the cost of maintaining an infrastructure and also cover the cost of generating capacity adequate to cover 100% of grid demand.

Perhaps that is what SDGE intended to do with their proposed large increase in the fixed fee. To me the big unknown is not just the cost of maintaining the grid but upgrading it so it can deal with the two way flow of power that is happening now with solar and batteries. In another discussion someone pointed out that the power can flow in either direction but the controls and information systems were only designed with flow in one direction. I do think there is an opportunity to make the grid more resilient with better controls and switching. There have been some recent examples of that as a result of the power outages in PGE territory that I am familiar with. That is a topic all of itself that has been discussed on other forums that are more California centric,
The cost of generating capacity is a complicated subject that has been influenced by California deregulation over the past 20 years or more. the reality is that the three IOUs were supposed to divest themselves of their generating capacity and that has only partially taken place. PGE and SCE still have much of their hydro generating capacity and I believe they may have built some peaker plants right after the energy crisis. I buy my generation through a CCA, which is another aspect of deregulation.

Taking that fantasy a step further, if the POCO's also owned the residential storage, charging for it and paying/crediting any on site PV or other generation at the highest cost of alternate sources of generation, they'd have an opportunity to get in on the ground floor of what's likely to happen at some point anyway and control what they might view as competition - a situation they missed out on by not banding together and controlling the PV industry before it took off.

Perhaps, but as I remember the argument that SCE was making during the run up to deregulation they wanted to get rid of generation. I actively lobbied our legislators for deregulation at that time. Solar was not considered as a significant factor. A lot of mistakes were made during the early days of deregulation and we are still paying for them now.

[J.P.M.]

I agree, some people call that the utility death spiral when they cut off their nose to spite their face. As an example of that kind of load departure, my brother installed two Powerwalls in his vacation rentals in Maui. He still has an electric bill but it is significantly less than it was. The limiting factor was the roof area for solar panels.

Perhaps one (of many) possible future scenarios for grid/residential interface would have most electricity needs met by on site battery storage with POCO's charging such mostly "independent" users a fee that's mostly or entirely free of any charges for delivered power but high enough to cover the cost of maintaining an infrastructure and also cover the cost of generating capacity adequate to cover 100% of grid demand.

Taking that fantasy a step further, if the POCO's also owned the residential storage, charging for it and paying/crediting any on site PV or other generation at the highest cost of alternate sources of generation, they'd have an opportunity to get in on the ground floor of what's likely to happen at some point anyway and control what they might view as competition - a situation they missed out on by not banding together and controlling the PV industry before it took off.

[organic farmer]

Sounds like the POCO's have your state politicians in their pockets ... .

They certainly do.

[SunEagle]

You are fortunate.

I live on the East Coast [Maine], here in our town the power grid normally goes down 2 or 3 times each month. It might only be for an hour, or it might last 3 or 4 days, there is no way to predict how long a power outage will last.

The additional fees for pre-approval of grid-tied installations here will equal the cost of batteries.

Whereas off-grid installations do not require any poco permits.

Sounds like the POCO's have your state politicians in their pockets with approval costs for solar being so high. It is a shame since the North East POCO rates are as bad as the West Coast.

[organic farmer]

I have a hard time justifying the purchase of batteries when we have net-metering in CA. The way I see it, the poco acts like my battery and I don't need to spend any additional money. Batteries are still quite expensive and generally last an average of 10 years. It seems to me the only real advantage of having batteries is backup power when the grid goes out, which in my case happened maybe once the past 5 years that I can recall.

You are fortunate.

I live on the East Coast [Maine], here in our town the power grid normally goes down 2 or 3 times each month. It might only be for an hour, or it might last 3 or 4 days, there is no way to predict how long a power outage will last.

The additional fees for pre-approval of grid-tied installations here will equal the cost of batteries.

Whereas off-grid installations do not require any poco permits.

[Ampster]

........

I'd bet in a few years when CA kills Net-Metering, batteries will become standard with solar installs. Similar to Hawaii.

I agree, some people call that the utility death spiral when they cut off their nose to spite their face. As an example of that kind of load departure, my brother installed two Powerwalls in his vacation rentals in Maui. He still has an electric bill but it is significantly less than it was. The limiting factor was the roof area for solar panels.

[Ampster]

I'm not trying to start an argument here, but IMO only, once the lights go out it's probably about the only factor that will drive a majority of folks to batteries or ICE generators until the POCO power comes back on. Then, demand will continue to rise slowly with sales to the niche market of early adoptors and treehuggers until the next time the POCO power goes out. Then, another blip in the market will occur.

No argument here. I guess some of that depends on how one defines a niche market. I have described off grid as a niche market and I have read an estimate of 180,000 people in the US live off grid. It may still be a larger niche than household batteries at this time. In California that may be changing but I don't have any numbers about people off the grid in California.
I think the public power outages are creating fear of uncertainty and that is driving the current demand for batteries and generators. What some people predict, when the cost of batteries come down, is that the combination with solar will make self consumption competitive with peak pricing. Then the market will not just be limited to tree huggers and early adopters. In California with the requirement of solar on new homes it won't take long for home builders to see an opportunity to upsell people on adding household battery storage.

..........

Neither suppliers nor users of power are the problem. The problem is ignorance.

I agree ignorance is the root of most problems. In my neck of the woods, ignorance of the consequences of deferred maintenance has caused PGE to face billions in liabilities for damages caused by wildfires. It is easier to solve deferred maintenance than ignorance. SDGE did a good job of dealing with deferred maintenance in the last ten years compared to PGE.

[J.P.M.]

I am sure that is a major driver for this trend. Especially in my neck of the woods. Long term it does not bode well for the Investor Owned Utilities unless they can adapt.

I'm not trying to start an argument here, but IMO only, once the lights go out it's probably about the only factor that will drive a majority of folks to batteries or ICE generators until the POCO power comes back on. Then, demand will continue to rise slowly with sales to the niche market of early adoptors and treehuggers until the next time the POCO power goes out. Then, another blip in the market will occur.

Through all that, outfits perceived as meeting the need to keep the lights on will always use people's fears, whatever those fears may be - some call it need or demand - as a marketing tool.

The general public's ignorance of what's available, and a greater ignorance of available tools to help them make what they see as the best solutions to their situations in terms of both practical considerations as well as economics makes for fertile ground for suppliers of possible solutions.

As for the IOU's, they will e/de-volve and adapt, or they will die and some other system will provide power to the masses. Either or any way, the ignorant will, as always, take it in the shorts and if they notice anything, wonder what happened.

Neither suppliers nor users of power are the problem. The problem is ignorance.

[Ampster]

........... Do batteries make financial sense, or is it just a luxury to have power when the grid goes down?

Yes some of these decisions will be emotional. Based on the spending habits of some people with large disposable incomes I have seen a blurring of the line between necessity and luxury. On other forums, on threads focusing on Tesla Powerwalls, many posters rave about the financial benefits. Some of these are Silicon Valley engineers who have developed spreadsheets to help them take advantage of TOU rates. To them it is a technology challenge to beat PGE at their own game.

[PugPower]

I agree with you, that for some it is medically necessary and for those who wish to live off grid. I believe for the rest of us it just makes more financial sense to buy a larger solar system and take full advantage of net-metering, then add batteries. Unless you are lucky enough to get state subsidies from your poco for the batteries.

I'd bet in a few years when CA kills Net-Metering, batteries will become standard with solar installs. Similar to Hawaii.

[Ampster]

Even with load-shifting and TOU, won't it take many many years just to break even considering the current cost of batteries?

Yes it will. But it does lower the cost of back up, while providing other benefits. The demographics of California also contribute to this market trend, not to mention subsidies for self generation.

[PugPower]

Even with load-shifting and TOU, won't it take many many years if ever just to break even considering the current cost of batteries? When I designed my PV system I was focused on getting a break-even of approximately 5 years. It seems that adding batteries to the mix would push the break even date far into the future. Do batteries make financial sense, or is it just a luxury to have power when the grid goes down?

[Ampster]

Yes, I am sure there has already been an increase in sales of generators as well..Generators have taken a prime spot next to BBQs at my local hardware store. The selling point for batteries is that they can leverage an existing GT PV solar installation. Generators can't do that nor can they save money by load shifting and peak shaving. With TOU rates in California hitting as much as $0.54 per kilowatt hour that can be a selling point to some. It is just a matter of time before our forum sponsor starts trying to pick up leads for this market. As you said, it is just business. Threads like this are bound to attract lurkers.

Generac is hedging their bets and purchased Pika, a battery manufacturer. I am sure they will sell plenty of systems with batteries and generators to those that have the disposable income. As the population ages there is also a segment of the community that is dependent on medical devices and that is another selling point.