Goodbye Chinese Panels.....

[Alisobob]

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/12/20/us-deals-major-blow-to-chinese-solar-manufacturers.aspx

The solar shakeup continues....

[J.P.M.]

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...facturers.aspx

The solar shakeup continues....

FWIW, I've been following the author of that piece for some time on the Fool. IMO, he knows squat about solar and, ignorant or otherwise, often writes as a shill for Sunpower.

[russ]

FWIW, I've been following the author of that piece for some time on the Fool. IMO, he knows squat about solar and, ignorant or otherwise, often writes as a shill for Sunpower.

Additionally "Travis Hoium is long SunPower. The Motley Fool recommends SolarCity. The Motley Fool owns shares of SolarCity"

[Sunking]

FWIW, I've been following the author of that piece for some time on the Fool. IMO, he knows squat about solar and, ignorant or otherwise, often writes as a shill for Sunpower.

That maybe true, but there is no denying the tariff imposed on Chi-Com panels will have a huge impact on sales. Bottom line it means cost will be going up in the USA, and that means less sales. Not to mention China will retaliate imposing tariffs on US goods into China hurting US manufacturing. The US cannot win a trade war with any developing country, especially giants like China and India. It is a Lose - Lose for US with nothing to gain.

As an investor what I would be looking at is real simple.
Panel prices will go up
Subsidies end year end 2015
Net Metering under attack, being modified raising cost on solar users, and consumers becoming aware all those cost are being passed onto them by higher utility rates will continue th epressure for solar customers to pay their own cost.

All that adds up to a collapse and the bubble gets popped. I got out of solar in 2007 at the peak, and made money. If I had any solar stock today knowing what is coming. I would take my losses or profits right now and let someone else get caught holding the bag of poop.

[J.P.M.]

That maybe true, but there is no denying the tariff imposed on Chi-Com panels will have a huge impact on sales. Bottom line it means cost will be going up in the USA, and that means less sales. Not to mention China will retaliate imposing tariffs on US goods into China hurting US manufacturing. The US cannot win a trade war with any developing country, especially giants like China and India. It is a Lose - Lose for US with nothing to gain.

As an investor what I would be looking at is real simple.
Panel prices will go up
Subsidies end year end 2015
Net Metering under attack, being modified raising cost on solar users, and consumers becoming aware all those cost are being passed onto them by higher utility rates will continue th epressure for solar customers to pay their own cost.

All that adds up to a collapse and the bubble gets popped. I got out of solar in 2007 at the peak, and made money. If I had any solar stock today knowing what is coming. I would take my losses or profits right now and let someone else get caught holding the bag of poop.

Agreed except that if by subsidies you are referring to the 30% fed. tax credit, the way things are now, that will expire 12/31/2016, not 2015.

I'm bailing on my solar stuff now, a bit late maybe, but I bought most of it in mid 2012, still cheap even now after the last 6 months crash.

[Sunking]

I'm bailing on my solar stuff now, a bit late maybe, but I bought most of it in mid 2012, still cheap even now after the last 6 months crash.

Sell now while your ahead. Wait any longer and you will be the one caught holding the bag. Let some other sucker do that.

[russ]

How long is the price of oil and gas going to remain low?

The good news side is that the Chinese companies are going to have to sell more somewhere else - maybe things get cheaper here.

[silversaver]

How long is the price of oil and gas going to remain low?

The good news side is that the Chinese companies are going to have to sell more somewhere else - maybe things get cheaper here.

I think it is the other way around. Without chinese panels, price of solar will go up. Look at 4+ yrs ago....

Oh, maybe outside of US will be cheaper haha. You probably see lots panels coming out of Canada and Mexico

[russ]

I think it is the other way around. Without chinese panels, price of solar will go up. Look at 4+ yrs ago....

Oh, maybe outside of US will be cheaper haha. You probably see lots panels coming out of Canada and Mexico

The "here" I mentioned is Turkey

[silversaver]

I spot that russ

[bcroe]

Net Metering under attack, being modified raising cost on solar users, and consumers becoming aware all those cost are being passed onto them by higher utility rates will continue th epressure for solar customers to pay their own cost.

The problem with this is the utilities will use a change as an excuse to slap on a completely
out of proportion fee on net metering, trying to put them out of business. It will be hard to
get this limited to the real cost. What I could live with, is something like this:

The solar users get credit for 90-95% of the power they send to the grid. Utility gets the
rest as a profit. Solar user billed or deducted at 100% for whatever they take back.

Subsidies will expire soon enough. I think they were a good thing; there is always an
initial cost to progress. Bruce Roe