PV generations

[vhairanos]

Hello everybody,

I am a new member of the forum, I am from Italy.

I wanted to ask you, do you believe that the first generation of photovoltaic (the one based on silicon) is still the most reliable?

Silicon shortage can be a problem?

Are we moving towards the third generation (DSCs, organic solar, etc. ..) before that towards the second (thin films), which requires heavy investment in production?

What do you think about the scenarios of photovoltaic technology?
Are we replacing the silicon?

Hello to everyone and thank you all

[Naptown]

Hello everybody,

I am a new member of the forum, I am from Italy.

I wanted to ask you, do you believe that the first generation of photovoltaic (the one based on silicon) is still the most reliable?

Yes

Silicon shortage can be a problem?

One of the most abundant minerals on the planet

Are we moving towards the third generation (DSCs, organic solar, etc. ..) before that towards the second (thin films), which requires heavy investment in production?

Yes but will be a long time in development

What do you think about the scenarios of photovoltaic technology?
Are we replacing the silicon?

Not anytime soon

Hello to everyone and thank you all

Responses in red

[vhairanos]

thank you very much for your answer

I would like to add that I think that if the future of photovoltaics is still silicon, there will be possibilities of silicon shortage, both because of the electronics industry needs the same material and the worldwide silicon manufacturers are still relatively few

the entry of new producers is difficult and especially is going slowly because there are strong barriers to entry, for example due to the high costs of a manufacturing plant and the high specialization required to manage a technically demanding process

so if we assume that the silicon will have a long life, maybe we do not take into account technological progresses, which might be a cheaper and more sustainable option (the DSCs are being marketed and have low costs, although they have yet to resolve critical issues as efficiency and lifetime... but however, fortunately, they are in a process of continuous improvement

[peakbagger]

I would have agreed with you on a " refined silicon" shortage a few years back. Silicon is beach sand , there is plenty of it. Silicon refined into single crystal ingot was another story. The plants required to refine the silicon are expensive and take a couple of years to build. When there was a rapid increase in demand for PV panels due to various government subsidy programs , there was shortage of manufacturing capacity and the price for refined silicon got real expensive. Numerous companies based their business plans on very high silcon prices and many decided to come up with lower cost alternatives like CIGs, or ways to use lower grade amorphous silicon or uses less silcon per panel or both (Evergreen string ribbon). Unfortunately while they were building their new plants for alternatives, a lot of capacity went on line for silcon and various governments cut back or eliminated their subsidies so there is currently an oversupply of silicon. Therefore the price for silicon has gotten very low to the point that the alternative technologies are no longer competitive as they have lower efficiencies and require more surface area which leads to more framing, glass and backpanels than an equivalent silicon panel.

[vhairanos]

Thank you very much pickbagger for your very complete and precise answer.
I would like to know something more about disposal and recycling.
For some time no-one had spoken about it, maybe because the most used technology was silicon (and we have no problems with silicon) and because a solar cell lifetime is about 25 years, so maybe people thought that the critical issue could have been delayed.
Now some plants are at the end of their lifetime and some technologies use toxic materials (such as cadmium, tellurium, indium).
So the disposal and recycling of solar cells is a very current topic.
There is an international organization (PV Cycle) that was founded to take care of this process.
Usually producers care after customers to remove solar panels and to start the recycling process.
Deutsche Solar and First Solar have already designed a methodology to do that.
Is this correct?
Thank you.

[russ]

Are you reading green sites about the horrors ot the modern world?

Of a thousand things to worry about this is near the bottom of the list.

[vhairanos]

Are you reading green sites about the horrors ot the modern world?

Of a thousand things to worry about this is near the bottom of the list.

Thank you very much russ for your answer.

I am sorry but I don't completely agree with you.

First of all I am not talking about the horrors of the modern world nor about green sites or green technologies.
I am talking about solar cells in a solar panel talk forum.

Moreover it's plenty of articles about the recycling solar cells matter.
For example, just to mention something...

"...A new report from GlobalData delves into a hidden side of the solar industry that will emerge as a result of this problem over the next 15 years–solar module recycling. According to the firm’s report, end-of-life PV modules are expected to generate approximately 24,855 tons of waste in 2025. By 2035, the amount is expected to increase to 1,161,173 tons..."

"...As one might expect, there are significant financial opportunities in this sector. In 2025, a PV module is expected to generate $0.58 per watt in recycled value, increasing to $1.21 per watt in 2035. The major factors driving this trend are the rise in solar panel installations from 2000 to 2010, an expected increase in recycling rates, and a rise in the market price of solar module materials, like glass and aluminum.
Overall, the total value of recycled crystalline modules is expected to increase from $122 million in 2025 to $12.9 billion by 2035..."

"...The emergence of solar module recycling is just part of a growing market for electronic waste, or e-waste. A recent study by Pike Research found that the amount of total e-waste generated worldwide is expected to double to 1,465 million cubic feet by 2025. Today, the vast majority of e-waste that doesn’t go to the landfill ends up in developing countries, where it is processed with little consideration for human or environmental health..."

That's why I think recycling solar cells is a current topic and a business and environmental opportunity.

Thank you again.

[russ]

The toxic chemicals are used in the manufacture.

The values estimated in 2025 and 2035 are just wild assed guesses.

The e waste people get excited about is more in the electronics area - not solar cells themselves.

[vhairanos]

The toxic chemicals are used in the manufacture.

The values estimated in 2025 and 2035 are just wild assed guesses.

The e waste people get excited about is more in the electronics area - not solar cells themselves.

I'm sorry but I still don't think you are right.

Toxic materials are used in the manufacturing (production) of some thin film solar cells and these materials are part of the cell (they "live" inside it and they must be recycled at the end of life).

The values estimated for the future comes from research studies. If their are a wild guesses, many other PV data or forecasting are too or can be. So it would be very difficult to argumentate almost everything. You didn't explain to me why you think these numbers are a "wild" guess.

Solar cells manufacturing has lot in common with electronic devices production. They both even compete on raw materials (silicon) and so on.
PV manufacturing might be considered as a brother of electronics and issues that concern it sometimes concern both. Recycling is a case.

Finally, I could believe you and I would love to know more about this topic, but could you please motivate your assumptions?

[russ]

Toxic materials are used in the manufacturing (production) of some thin film solar cells and these materials are part of the cell (they "live" inside it and they must be recycled at the end of life).For thin film that is correct - you started off on silicon cells

The values estimated for the future comes from research studies. If their are a wild guesses, many other PV data or forecasting are too or can be. So it would be very difficult to argumentate almost everything. You didn't explain to me why you think these numbers are a "wild" guess. They are based on wild assed guesses of the value of the various component materials in years to come. No one knows that value - if they did they would make their fortune on the commodities market.

Solar cells manufacturing has lot in common with electronic devices production. They both even compete on raw materials (silicon) and so on. Which are you talking about - production or end of life - very different. I guess that since both are made in factories they have a lot in common following you line of thought. Same for cars or Lego blocks if that is the connection.

PV manufacturing might be considered as a brother of electronics and issues that concern it sometimes concern both. Recycling is a case. Totally off base - recycling a solar cell can not be compared to recycling a cell phone. Inverters are electronic and closer to a cell phone in some ways but a silicon cell - no. Thin film so far has been a loser except for First Solar types nad now they are going down the drain.

Finally, I could believe you and I would love to know more about this topic, but could you please motivate your assumptions?

Motivate my assumptions? Lets just say watching the world and markets for a lifetime and looking at component pieces rather than throwing everything in one box.

Recycling solar separately - not going to happen - recycling centers are called centers as they handle all sorts of materials.

[PNjunction]

That's why I think recycling solar cells is a current topic and a business and environmental opportunity.

This seems to be the crux of your thread. Sure sounds like you are looking for investors for a start-up, and I'm across the table from the lenders trying to justify the sales plan for it. Either that, or we're doing your thesis.

Sorry, but that's how it comes across.