Canadian Province at the Forefront of Solar

[Jason]

A recent article points to Canada as a model for American energy and environmental policy. According to a piece published in Yale Environment 360, Ontario has shut down nearly every coal-fired plant, a final step in a plan laid out back in 2003."The decade-long process to replace a quarter of the province's electrical generating capacity with new plants fueled by natural gas and renewable energy sources represents one of the most ambitious low-carbon generating strategies in the world." The shift away from coal-fired power plants has lead to legislation including "...feed-in tariff provisions, modeled after similar programs in Denmark and Germany, which offered 20-year contracts to purchase wind, solar, biomass and biogas-fueled electricity from producers at generous prices."

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[russ]

The Ontario policy is entirely guided by ideology with common sense, science, enginering nor economics ever entering the picture.

Yale Environment 360 must be a fuzzy headed bunch of rich kids playing.

[Sunking]

I agree Canada has done a good job, but the article is a misleading trying to give the impression Solar has made a contribution when in reality it has not added anything. It is all Natural Gas which is the preferred choice right now wbecause it is so cheap and will be for the next couple of decades.

[MikeSolar]

I agree Canada has done a good job, but the article is a misleading trying to give the impression Solar has made a contribution when in reality it has not added anything. It is all Natural Gas which is the preferred choice right now wbecause it is so cheap and will be for the next couple of decades.

NG is about 29% of the Ontario grid at this time. Yea, it is cheap due to fracking across the continent but sooner or later, when we have major water quality issues we will see what is more important.

Anyway, whether you like the FIT program or not, it has raised the profile of solar a lot faster than anything else before it. At least now, people know it exists and I haven't seen a better program yet.

[russ]

NG is about 29% of the Ontario grid at this time. Yea, it is cheap due to fracking across the continent but sooner or later, when we have major water quality issues we will see what is more important.

Anyway, whether you like the FIT program or not, it has raised the profile of solar a lot faster than anything else before it. At least now, people know it exists and I haven't seen a better program yet.

What do the people that are paying for the extravagant FIT think about the program? The people that don't have solar - in other words, the great majority

[MikeSolar]

What do the people that are paying for the extravagant FIT think about the program? The people that don't have solar - in other words, the great majority

Most don't care because it is such a small amount. Probably less than $0.0005/kwh. Don't forget that this is not a big industry here yet and the purchase price has dropped from $.80/kwh to $.55/kwh as the installed cost drops and is slated to drop even more, shortly. The limit for 2012 for the under 10kw category is 50Mw installed and we haven't even got that far yet.

Any increase in electrical rates due to solar is dwarfed by the the cost for new lines and switch gear that is often 80 years old, and the refurbs to the NUC plants that come in at $.40/kwh

Our rates, and most American ones, will double in the next 10 years and solar will only be a small part of it.

[russ]

Any increase in electrical rates due to solar is dwarfed by the the cost for new lines and switch gear that is often 80 years old, and the refurbs to the NUC plants that come in at $.40/kwh The 40 cents is blather and don't try to mix things up by getting into replacing old equipment.

Our rates, and most American ones, will double in the next 10 years and solar will only be a small part of it.

You have a salesman's cap on - electric rates won't double in 10 years unless fools keep shutting down existing plants for silly feel good green political reasons. No one projects doubling.

[MikeSolar]

You have a salesman's cap on - electric rates won't double in 10 years unless fools keep shutting down existing plants for silly feel good green political reasons. No one projects doubling.

I don't tell this to my clients, electricity regulator people I know tell me this. Whether it is 50% or 150% doesn't matter, the fact is that until you get to an installed capacity like Germany, the cost add on due to solar will remain a small portion of the bill and a good portion of the population do support it. There will always be those who don't support it just as there will always be those who would rather have low or no taxes and no transit or health care systems, but you cannot please everyone.

[Rybren]

FWIW, here is the breakout of Ontario's electric generation:

Current total generating capacity: 19,049 megawatts (MW)

Nuclear Fleet
Generating Capacity: 6,606 MW
Stations: 2
2012 Output: 49.0 TWh
Currently Generating: 4845 MW

Hydroelectric Fleet
Generating Capacity: 6,996 MW
Stations: 65
2012 Output: 30.6 TWh
Currently Generating: 4035 MW

Thermal Fleet
Generating Capacity: 5,447 MW
Stations: 5
2012 Output: 4.1 TWh
Currently Generating: 173 MW

[SunEagle]

I don't tell this to my clients, electricity regulator people I know tell me this. Whether it is 50% or 150% doesn't matter, the fact is that until you get to an installed capacity like Germany, the cost add on due to solar will remain a small portion of the bill and a good portion of the population do support it. There will always be those who don't support it just as there will always be those who would rather have low or no taxes and no transit or health care systems, but you cannot please everyone.

Mike

What is the basis for these people telling you that the rates will increase that dramatically?

It isn't because of the lack of fuel sources. It may be due to the closing of older generating plants but new NG plants have a relatively short build time.

I am actually anticipating a reduction in my electric rates due to the local legislature working toward eliminating a Utility "fee" that allows them to "bank" funding for a future Nuke Plant. The problem is that they have already socked away billions from their customers without any guarantee that they will build this plant. If they don't they do not have to return any of the collected "fees".

Maybe there will be a doubling of rates in Countries like Japan and Germany due to them shutting down their Nukes but not in the US or even Canada as far as I'm concerned.

[russ]

Mike

What is the basis for these people telling you that the rates will increase that dramatically? electricity regulator people I know tell me this - Mike threw it off on "them"

Maybe there will be a doubling of rates in Countries like Japan and Germany due to them shutting down their Nukes but not in the US or even Canada as far as I'm concerned.

Actually Japan is restarting the nukes -[...]

[MikeSolar]

FWIW, here is the breakout of Ontario's electric generation:

Current total generating capacity: 19,049 megawatts (MW)

Nuclear Fleet
Generating Capacity: 6,606 MW
Stations: 2
2012 Output: 49.0 TWh
Currently Generating: 4845 MW

Hydroelectric Fleet
Generating Capacity: 6,996 MW
Stations: 65
2012 Output: 30.6 TWh
Currently Generating: 4035 MW

Thermal Fleet
Generating Capacity: 5,447 MW
Stations: 5
2012 Output: 4.1 TWh
Currently Generating: 173 MW

And of the total Ontario grid which is about 21,000Mw, PV represents, currently, 606Mw. This is of course installed capacity and not generated power which will have a much wider ratio. Do the math.

[MikeSolar]

Mike

What is the basis for these people telling you that the rates will increase that dramatically?

It isn't because of the lack of fuel sources. It may be due to the closing of older generating plants but new NG plants have a relatively short build time.

I am actually anticipating a reduction in my electric rates due to the local legislature working toward eliminating a Utility "fee" that allows them to "bank" funding for a future Nuke Plant. The problem is that they have already socked away billions from their customers without any guarantee that they will build this plant. If they don't they do not have to return any of the collected "fees".

Maybe there will be a doubling of rates in Countries like Japan and Germany due to them shutting down their Nukes but not in the US or even Canada as far as I'm concerned.

Yes, we have a lot of energy but we are a big province and the infrastructure is old. The city of Toronto looks like it needs a new line coming in from a NUC plant and we are having power quality issues. The regulator doesn't look at that as a reason to up the rates but it will cost billions to install.

You are lucky that the rebate will come. For us the province (taxpayer) foots the bill for any new construction. No NUC plant can provide affordable power unless it is spread over at least 40 years. Then it is garbage.

[Sunking]

Double in 10 years?. Hardly any way that can happen unless rates are artificially inflated by energy or tax policies like NoBama tried to do. There is not one bit of historical data to support that. For the last 30 years when adjusted for inflation and wages electricity has gone down 50% and is expected to continue going down for the next 20 years with dirt cheap NG prices and supplies. Anyone saying otherwise is either mis-informed, has no idea what they are talking about, or just flat out making it up and lying.

[bonaire]

What does the Ontario grid do with the lack of solar pv output when a very large cloud system comes in off the lakes?