News claiming solar becoming one of the cheapest power sources

[Brian53713]

Haven't been on the form in a while, to see if anybody's testing the experts response to the claims of solar recently becoming one of the cheapest viable sources of power. And sorry in advance for any controversy I may be starting. Any opinions?

[SunEagle]

It really depends on the location of the power generation. Solar can be much cheaper than other power sources but you still have to figure in the daily availability percentage and what you will use to power your loads when the sun is not available.

Unfortunately most people fall for fake news or are easily led into believing anything if it sounds great.

[J.P.M.]

Haven't been on the form in a while, to see if anybody's testing the experts response to the claims of solar recently becoming one of the cheapest viable sources of power. And sorry in advance for any controversy I may be starting. Any opinions?

That's a pretty broad statement that needs clarification to make much sense.

Some applications may well be cost effective at this time. Others may never be.

What you are looking at is a moving target with definitions that also change, usually depending on the agenda of the writer/speaker and their political/economic perspective.

Solar farms in the desert working with a high gov. subsidy may have a busbar post subsidy LOCE competitive with conventional power and if the POCO has a high cost rate structure may, it may make PV more cost competitive for distributed (residential) PV applications.

But without dragging off the public tit, renewables are usually less than the slam dunk the green mafia media and rose colored glasses wearing solar dreamers that glom off the solar ignorant would like us all to think and believe.

[jflorey2]

Haven't been on the form in a while, to see if anybody's testing the experts response to the claims of solar recently becoming one of the cheapest viable sources of power. And sorry in advance for any controversy I may be starting. Any opinions?

While it is generating, utility-scale PV is now cheaper than most forms of power in sunny places.

On the plus side, that means that utilities will now be installing a lot of PV in places like Saudi Arabia, Phoenix, Florida etc. That helps them because the power is close to synchronous with loads - on bright, hot, sunny days loads are high and generation is high. That means you can integrate a lot of solar with very little change to the power grid - and since it's so cheap, for little cost.

On the minus side, now you have higher ramp rates when the sun goes down for conventional sources of generation. When all that solar goes away right before the peak load part of the day (usually around 7pm) you have to spin up your conventional sources much faster than they are used to.

As solar gets built out, the problems of ramp rate, grid stabilization, peak shaving/peak shifting, demand response and curtailment will become bigger. These are problems that will cost money to solve - but will allow the addition of more (cheap) solar. So there's going to be a balance between getting that cheap power and paying for the problems it causes.

[Ampster]

While it is generating, utility-scale PV is now cheaper than most forms of power in sunny places.
...............

On the minus side, now you have higher ramp rates when the sun goes down for conventional sources of generation. When all that solar goes away right before the peak load part of the day (usually around 7pm) you have to spin up your conventional sources much faster than they are used to.

As solar gets built out, the problems of ramp rate, grid stabilization, peak shaving/peak shifting, demand response and curtailment will become bigger. These are problems that will cost money to solve - but will allow the addition of more (cheap) solar. So there's going to be a balance between getting that cheap power and paying for the problems it causes.

You recently reported on a battery conference. I just read about a larrge battery bank being installed in conjunction with a solar farm in California. Presumably that will reduce the high ramp rates required from other resources. In California we are already paying high rates for for the peaker plants that can ramp quickly.

[SunEagle]

You recently reported on a battery conference. I just read about a larrge battery bank being installed in conjunction with a solar farm in California. Presumably that will reduce the high ramp rates required from other resources. In California we are already paying high rates for for the peaker plants that can ramp quickly.

Lets hope people in CA don't have to pay a rate increase when the POCO's have to replace those battery systems. Otherwise the cost of power to the consumer goes way up even without peakers.

[jflorey2]

Lets hope people in CA don't have to pay a rate increase when the POCO's have to replace those battery systems. Otherwise the cost of power to the consumer goes way up even without peakers.

Yep. The comparison will be cost of battery replacement vs cost of peaker rebuilds. With LiFePO4 hitting 5000 cycles you'd be looking at a ~13 year replacement cycle.

[Mike90250]

Once the initial investment is paid, you get a good 10 or 15 years of 6 hours of Free power (in decent locations) but then maintenance starts to spike, and the "cheap" goes away.

And those big "grid scale batteries" are good for about 10-30 minutes - long enough to spin up fossil plants.

[neweclipse]

Won't be building myself any fossil fuel generating plant in my backyard...

[Ampster]

Lets hope people in CA don't have to pay a rate increase when the POCO's have to replace those battery systems. Otherwise the cost of power to the consumer goes way up even without peakers.

California is deregulated so most of the Investor Owned Utilities don't own much generation. Typically it is companies like NRG, AES and others who supply fossil fuel power on contracts . AES has installed some battery systems but there are also a lot of smaller companies providing renewable energy based on power purchase contracts. On a macro level those systems already have depreciation built into to the power contracts so I am not to worried about battery replacement increasing my rates. I am also hopeful that the cost per kWh of batteries continues to decline.
In my opinion the biggest risk of rate increases in California is not generation cost it is distribution costs. That is particularly true where PG&E is facing liability for poorly maintained wires starting fires.

[Ampster]

Won't be building myself any fossil fuel generating plant in my backyard...

And that is the trend in California because of all the solar and wind coming online. There is still plenty of existing natural gas fired generation available to get us through the night.

[Ampster]

Once the initial investment is paid, you get a good 10 or 15 years of 6 hours of Free power (in decent locations) but then maintenance starts to spike, and the "cheap" goes away.

Actually it is not free. As I mentioned earlier most of that power is sold on contracts and depreciation is built in as well as a return on the investors investment. At least that is how it is working in California under deregulation.

And those big "grid scale batteries" are good for about 10-30 minutes - long enough to spin up fossil plants.

Exactly, and that is all they are designed to do. They have eliminated, for the most part, the need for peaker plant generation. Peakers are very inefficient but these battery systems allow time for the more efficient combined cycle natural gas fired plants to fire up.

[jflorey2]

In my opinion the biggest risk of rate increases in California is not generation cost it is distribution costs. That is particularly true where PG&E is facing liability for poorly maintained wires starting fires.

Yep. And this will drive local storage as well. People/developments/towns will start taking a closer look at local storage if PG+E has to cut power on hot days to reduce the odds of wildfire.

[SunEagle]

Yep. And this will drive local storage as well. People/developments/towns will start taking a closer look at local storage if PG+E has to cut power on hot days to reduce the odds of wildfire.

I am afraid that most people will not be able to afford even cheap home energy storage which will put them in the dark if their POCO cuts power for any reason. There are way too many people living below poverty level now. Imagine how many will be in the dark if electricity can't be a guaranteed source.

[J.P.M.]

I am afraid that most people will not be able to afford even cheap home energy storage which will put them in the dark if their POCO cuts power for any reason. There are way too many people living below poverty level now. Imagine how many will be in the dark if electricity can't be a guaranteed source.

I look at the potential for real disruption if there is a bad Santa Ana --- >>> fire season and the CA POCOs do indeed resort to major power curtailments to reduce their expose to lawsuits. Maybe the state's population will level off or even go down. Wonder if we'd become a state of survivalist off gridders after all the snowflakes and pussies left ?