Sharp Shift Stiffs Solar as CPUC appoves later TOU Peak Time

[UkiwiS]

Has anyone done the math on this to see how big an impact it'll make?

https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2017/08/...-tou-peak-time

I'm on EV-TOU2 rates so I currently "earn" almost 49 cents per kWh between Noon and 6pm. Other generation currently "earns" 24 cents per kWh. For the last 2 years every bill I've received has been for the minim charge or roughly $10 per month and I have had approx $200 in unused credit at the end of the year that is lost. It looks like this is going to change...massively.

Approximately 66% of my total generation is between noon-6pm.
Approximately 12% of my total generation is between 4pm-9pm

Using the Summer Rates...so worse case scenario...54% of my generation will drop from "earning" me 49 cents a kWh to 24 cents per KWh...GULP!

With 9000 kWh generated in 2016 the cost "increase" for me will be about .54 X 9000 X .25 = $1215 or $100 per month!

The difference is not as marked for Winter due to Peak and Off-Peak TOU rates being only 5 cents apart so I can probably halve the above number...$50 a month.

Does that math look right?

[sensij]

J.P.M. modeled it out in this thread, using the 3pm - 9 pm peak that was proposed in that revision.

I'm not so sure your math is right, and there are some other factors to consider. Only summer months have historically had such a big spread between peak and off peak, so I'd focus on just summer generation energy. "Summer" is also being redefined from 6 months to 5 months, which affects the outcome as well.

Here is a link to the Rev. 3 version that I think was approved, I'll probably see the final decision show up in my inbox in a day or two.

[UkiwiS]

J.P.M. modeled it out in this thread, using the 3pm - 9 pm peak that was proposed in that revision.

I'm not so sure your math is right, and there are some other factors to consider. Only summer months have historically had such a big spread between peak and off peak, so I'd focus on just summer generation energy. "Summer" is also being redefined from 6 months to 5 months, which affects the outcome as well.

Here is a link to the Rev. 3 version that I think was approved, I'll probably see the final decision show up in my inbox in a day or two.

Thanks SensiJ, I'll check it out when I have some time.

I also found this:

https://www.sdge.com/clean-energy/time-use-period-grandfathering-net-energy-metering-customers

Perhaps I need to get off the EV-TOU2 rate plan and move to DR-SES.

[sensij]

Perhaps I need to get off the EV-TOU2 rate plan and move to DR-SES.

The grandfathering will apply for any TOU plan, not just DR-SES. 5 years from PTO for most residential systems, so if yours is a couple years old, you should have a couple years left.

[max2k]

The grandfathering will apply for any TOU plan, not just DR-SES. 5 years from PTO for most residential systems, so if yours is a couple years old, you should have a couple years left.

sounds like batteries are going to become reality at least in size enough for load shifting with SDGE customers leading the way

[Sunking]

sounds like batteries are going to become reality at least in size enough for load shifting with SDGE customers leading the way

Riddle me this please. How is that good for anyone?

Wholesale electric rates are roughly 5-cents per Kwh. SDGE is forced to pay the consumer outrageous retail rates of 24 to 50-cents per Kwh. Heck there are many states where residential rates are less than 10-cents for all you want and price goes down more if you use more than 2000 Kwh in a month. Heck my old home in TX pays 7.6 cents for the first 2000 Kwh in a month, then drops to 6.9 cents over 2000 Kwh in a month. Do folks in CA realize they are paying up some 8 times more compared to some other states?

I can only think of one small insignificant group that comes out on top and the rest have to pay a heavy tax on.

[max2k]

Riddle me this please. How is that good for anyone?

Wholesale electric rates are roughly 5-cents per Kwh. SDGE is forced to pay the consumer outrageous retail rates of 24 to 50-cents per Kwh. Heck there are many states where residential rates are less than 10-cents for all you want and price goes down more if you use more than 2000 Kwh in a month. Heck my old home in TX pays 7.6 cents for the first 2000 Kwh in a month, then drops to 6.9 cents over 2000 Kwh in a month. Do folks in CA realize they are paying up some 8 times more compared to some other states?

I can only think of one small insignificant group that comes out on top and the rest have to pay a heavy tax on.

I was sarcastic, it is not good for anyone but unfortunately looks like the direction things are heading to. There are 2 ways PV can be made financially feasible: either make it cheaper or jack up electricity prices for consumers. Same for batteries- the moment situation becomes ridiculous there and with availability / prices for LFP and associated control systems they might start look appealing. Way to go.

[bcroe]

I think there is another way. There is no money between the PoCo and me on net metered power going
either way. The timing of this benefits the PoCo. But I could relate to them only returning 90% of the
power I send for free. Still no money involved, easy for me to provide. Bruce Roe

[J.P.M.]

Has anyone done the math on this to see how big an impact it'll make?

https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2017/08/...-tou-peak-time

I'm on EV-TOU2 rates so I currently "earn" almost 49 cents per kWh between Noon and 6pm. Other generation currently "earns" 24 cents per kWh. For the last 2 years every bill I've received has been for the minim charge or roughly $10 per month and I have had approx $200 in unused credit at the end of the year that is lost. It looks like this is going to change...massively.

Approximately 66% of my total generation is between noon-6pm.
Approximately 12% of my total generation is between 4pm-9pm

Using the Summer Rates...so worse case scenario...54% of my generation will drop from "earning" me 49 cents a kWh to 24 cents per KWh...GULP!

With 9000 kWh generated in 2016 the cost "increase" for me will be about .54 X 9000 X .25 = $1215 or $100 per month!

The difference is not as marked for Winter due to Peak and Off-Peak TOU rates being only 5 cents apart so I can probably halve the above number...$50 a month.

Does that math look right?

I and others have done a rough comparison for SDG & E rates/times before times were finalized. It looks like an ~~ 20-25 % or se decrease in cost effectiveness for residential PV. Other POCO's may well be similar. It's a bit more complicated than your math indicates. It's necessary to gig into the tariffs and run a sample year with PVWatts generation, your green button data and a spreadsheet with the old tariff you were on and the new hours for the new tariff you'll be on and compare the totals. CPUC ruling is very recent and I intend to do as I describe above, again, but not until ~ 09/01 when SDG % E is expected to publish new rates and the 3 - 4 P.M. change in peak time is confirmed as added to the all around new times.

[UkiwiS]

I and others have done a rough comparison for SDG & E rates/times before times were finalized. It looks like an ~~ 20-25 % or se decrease in cost effectiveness for residential PV. Other POCO's may well be similar. It's a bit more complicated than your math indicates. It's necessary to gig into the tariffs and run a sample year with PVWatts generation, your green button data and a spreadsheet with the old tariff you were on and the new hours for the new tariff you'll be on and compare the totals. CPUC ruling is very recent and I intend to do as I describe above, again, but not until ~ 09/01 when SDG % E is expected to publish new rates and the 3 - 4 P.M. change in peak time is confirmed as added to the all around new times.

I just downloaded my 15 min data for calendar year 2016 and did a little playing around in Excel using the Winter and Summer rates as they are today for EV-TOU2.

My Net usage over 2016 was +1536.93 kWh
My Net Cost using 1100-1800 as Peak was -$610.59
My Net Cost using 1600-2100 as Peak was+$396.81 or a difference of +$1,007.41

[cebury]

Your electrical usage profile may or may not be the biggest factor in the equation. If you previously used a lot of energy outside peak, from 1801 to 2100, but this is now peak period, you are now double hit. Some folks plug in their EV car right when they get home at 6pm, since it was previously shoulder and start the AC and oven for dinner... you get the point. Is much of your old usage now hitting into the new peak periods?

[J.P.M.]

I just downloaded my 15 min data for calendar year 2016 and did a little playing around in Excel using the Winter and Summer rates as they are today for EV-TOU2.

My Net usage over 2016 was +1536.93 kWh
My Net Cost using 1100-1800 as Peak was -$610.59
My Net Cost using 1600-2100 as Peak was+$396.81 or a difference of +$1,007.41

Hang onto it. I'll be back.

J.P.M.

[UkiwiS]

I and others have done a rough comparison for SDG & E rates/times before times were finalized. It looks like an ~~ 20-25 % or se decrease in cost effectiveness for residential PV. Other POCO's may well be similar. It's a bit more complicated than your math indicates. It's necessary to gig into the tariffs and run a sample year with PVWatts generation, your green button data and a spreadsheet with the old tariff you were on and the new hours for the new tariff you'll be on and compare the totals. CPUC ruling is very recent and I intend to do as I describe above, again, but not until ~ 09/01 when SDG % E is expected to publish new rates and the 3 - 4 P.M. change in peak time is confirmed as added to the all around new times.

Have you re-run the numbers yet?

[kb58]

... "Summer" is also being redefined from 6 months to 5 months, which affects the outcome as well...

It is? I built a spreadsheet using what I thought were the most current numbers for proposed 2018 TOU changes and thought "summer" was defined as May-Oct. No?

[sensij]

It is? I built a spreadsheet using what I thought were the most current numbers for proposed 2018 TOU changes and thought "summer" was defined as May-Oct. No?

Page 17, same link I shared in your thread.

http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/Published/G000/M194/K599/194599448.PDF

Taken together, the SDG&E DLAP prices for 2015 and 2016 and the SEIA figure shows that historically May is much like non-summer months in terms of the frequency of very hot days, a typical driver of peak electric demands. While we agree that SEIA made a strong case that the trend for May is increasing frequency of very hot days, we agree with SDG&E and ORA that based on current load data, May more closely aligns to April, not June or July. For that reason, we adopt a five-month summer (June-October) and seven-month winter (November-May) season and direct SDG&E to implement this revised seasonal definition as soon as practicable following the issuance of a final CPUC decision.