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Good Bye Old Friend

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  • Good Bye Old Friend

    Well after a 30 year love affair I had to bury a friend about two weeks before Christmas. Had to shoot him and put it out of my misery. My old friend has made me a lot of money, shot his wad and has seen his better days. Yep sold all my Walmart Stock after 30 years. I smelled it coming about 10 years ago, leveraged, and bought a boat load of Amazon and Priceline. Amazon is going to close a lot of Brick and Mortar stores. They got Walmart on the run.
    MSEE, PE

  • #2
    Originally posted by Sunking View Post
    Well after a 30 year love affair I had to bury a friend about two weeks before Christmas. Had to shoot him and put it out of my misery. My old friend has made me a lot of money, shot his wad and has seen his better days. Yep sold all my Walmart Stock after 30 years. I smelled it coming about 10 years ago, leveraged, and bought a boat load of Amazon and Priceline. Amazon is going to close a lot of Brick and Mortar stores. They got Walmart on the run.
    My condolences. I did the same w/my Sunpower stock a couple of years ago. I know the feeling and the loss.

    R.I.P.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post

      My condolences. I did the same w/my Sunpower stock a couple of years ago. I know the feeling and the loss.

      R.I.P.
      Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't you tell me you bought SP, and I said something to the effect you might regret that? Solar stocks have been on a down hill slide since 2007. granted you want to buy low or into a pull back, but you had better be confident it is a Correction and not declining sales. Myself I see no upside to Solar. The conditions that made the Solar Bubble have either gone away or will go away.

      MSEE, PE

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      • #4
        The hell with solar and saving the world. I bought DVN a year ago at $7 when everyone said oil was going to $15/BL. Like oil is going away. Now DVN is $47. You can always depend on people making bad choices.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by PNPmacnab View Post
          The hell with solar and saving the world. I bought DVN a year ago at $7 when everyone said oil was going to $15/BL. Like oil is going away. Now DVN is $47. You can always depend on people making bad choices.
          Yep I bought all my favorite O&G back long time ago. What I got from the sell of my Wallyworld stock, 25% went right into O&G, and around 10% gain in 3 weeks. Best of all completely TAX FREE gains, dividends, and interest. I love Roth.

          MSEE, PE

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Sunking View Post

            Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't you tell me you bought SP, and I said something to the effect you might regret that? Solar stocks have been on a down hill slide since 2007. granted you want to buy low or into a pull back, but you had better be confident it is a Correction and not declining sales. Myself I see no upside to Solar. The conditions that made the Solar Bubble have either gone away or will go away.
            I don't recall you suggesting I'd regret it, but I do seem to recall you didn't think it a good idea.

            Actually, I think I made out.

            I got an unexpected pension buyout offer from prior employer 07/2012. I took it mostly as found money and bought 10,000 sh. SPWR between 9/2012 - 11/2012 @ ave. $ cost of ~ $4.50/sh., and 1,000 TSLA @ ~ $28.50/sh. Swapped all into my existing Roth IRA.
            Then, 04/30/14, cashed out/sold 1,000 sh. SPWR @ $33.30/sh. and paid for SP array and roof repairs. SP stock run up/appreciation paid for my SP array and roof repairs and then some after tax credit.
            Chickened out on the TSLA Dec. '14 @ ~ $/158/sh.
            Sold remaining 9,000 sh. SPWR between 4/15 and 7/15 @ ave. sell of ~ $29.50/sh.

            The old advice of buying what you know seemed to have worked reasonably well here. Otherwise, I stick to index funds, etc. and mostly stay out of areas where I'm ignorant - like the market.

            I'll leave the math to those interested.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post
              The old advice of buying what you know seemed to have worked reasonably well here.
              Yep anything else is foolish and why there are winners and losers. Like you at our age I have 75% in secure investments that pay dividends and never go down. A few bullion coins laying around. The rest is play toys I can afford to lose and take higher risk with markets I know. Learned my lessons the hard way in the Black Monday of 87, and the Tech Bubble of 2001. In 2007 I pretty much cashed out in gold and money market and rode it out a year. Well I kept depression proof stuff like Walmart, McDonalds, PPG, Kimberly Clark and a few others. The good ole 7 year cycle.

              My point of the thread is Amazon has changed the way we buy things. Book and department stores are going down, and many will go under. Me thinks in 5 years Macy's, Dillard's, Sears, JCPenney, and book stores will almost completely vanish. Only the strongest will survive like Walmart and Target who can diversify into things like the Grocery market and online sales with local same day pickup with no shipping charges.

              MSEE, PE

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              • #8
                Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post

                The old advice of buying what you know seemed to have worked reasonably well here. Otherwise, I stick to index funds, etc. and mostly stay out of areas where I'm ignorant - like the market.

                I'll leave the math to those interested.
                The idea of buying what you know only works out well if what you know includes an industry with good prospects.

                Or you are sophisticated enough to sell short.

                But not an industry you know so well that it is insider trading.
                Last edited by inetdog; 01-12-2017, 02:44 PM.
                SunnyBoy 3000 US, 18 BP Solar 175B panels.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by inetdog View Post
                  But not an industry you know so well that it is insider trading.
                  That is the best kind of trade. I still short stocks for fun.

                  MSEE, PE

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by inetdog View Post

                    The idea of buying what you know only works out well if what you know includes an industry with good prospects.
                    Or maybe a company that seems good at manipulating their prospects by hype as SP seems better at than others.

                    I guess I kind of took the buy only what you know part to include also knowing enough to not buy some stuff (like maybe Enphase ?) and when to bail out.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Sunking View Post
                      Yep anything else is foolish and why there are winners and losers. Like you at our age I have 75% in secure investments that pay dividends and never go down. A few bullion coins laying around. The rest is play toys I can afford to lose and take higher risk with markets I know. Learned my lessons the hard way in the Black Monday of 87, and the Tech Bubble of 2001. In 2007 I pretty much cashed out in gold and money market and rode it out a year. Well I kept depression proof stuff like Walmart, McDonalds, PPG, Kimberly Clark and a few others. The good ole 7 year cycle.

                      My point of the thread is Amazon has changed the way we buy things. Book and department stores are going down, and many will go under. Me thinks in 5 years Macy's, Dillard's, Sears, JCPenney, and book stores will almost completely vanish. Only the strongest will survive like Walmart and Target who can diversify into things like the Grocery market and online sales with local same day pickup with no shipping charges.
                      Agree as to the point of the thread. I see it as regression toward the mean, or another manifestation of social entropy.

                      About the same $$ avail. to spend but more ways to spend it. Less brick/mortar more electronic outlets. Result: with more price regression toward the mean, a bit more perceived competition, meaning high price outlets losing out to fewer/no frills mass retailers. Example: Tailored suits lose out to Mao PJ's and jeans as priorities change for any number of reasons. Adapt or die.
                      Another: Solar panels become a commodity and SP either lowers prices or loses market share as their hype becomes known B.S. and therefore irrelevant.

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                      • #12
                        I've had WMT stock for over 10 years, it's done just ok. Also got talked into Evergreen solar which turned out to be a total loss. At least I got a tax deduction out of it.
                        Now a days I mostly just put it into total market index.
                        Still have a fair amount of individual stocks that have increased 100+% over the years. If I sell now, the IRS will get a nice chunk of it.... Current plan is to install a solar array and use the tax credits to offset gains from selling some stocks. In the past I did the same with applying credit for new windows and insulation. For 2017, there currently aren't any energy tax credits avail except for solar..... is that likely to change during the year?

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Walker View Post
                          I've had WMT stock for over 10 years, it's done just ok. Also got talked into Evergreen solar which turned out to be a total loss. At least I got a tax deduction out of it.
                          Now a days I mostly just put it into total market index.
                          Still have a fair amount of individual stocks that have increased 100+% over the years. If I sell now, the IRS will get a nice chunk of it.... Current plan is to install a solar array and use the tax credits to offset gains from selling some stocks. In the past I did the same with applying credit for new windows and insulation. For 2017, there currently aren't any energy tax credits avail except for solar..... is that likely to change during the year?
                          I wouldn't bet on any R.E. or conservation tax credits increasing any time soon. The U.S. looks (to some) to be in poorly charted waters just now. If so, and to the degree you feel any such perceived uncertainty might affect you, it may be wise to consider prioritizing conservation/R.E. efforts with some attention/balancing/tradeoffs between/biggest credit amt./credit %age/maximizing savings.

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