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  • Need advice on a solar project

    Hello all,

    I've been carefully looking into solar over a couple of years, I've done my research, used pvwatts, and gotten my in home estimates. Recently we had a prior company come back and give us a bid very close to our planned budget. We are on the brink, and I would like to know your thoughts on this proposed project before we take the plunge.

    Our south facing roof is quite small, so we need the highest density panels we can get, so mostly we have gotten Sunpower estimates by their Elite dealer network. We have received the following bid:

    2.88kW system consisting of
    8 Sunpower X22 360 AC panels (which come with microinverters)
    13,250 dollars before any incentives
    ~4.6 dollar per watt
    25 year warranty on everything

    We plan to pay in cash, as there is no hero financing in our area. $1000 down, the rest: 60% on materials ordered, 30% job finished, 10% at commissioning.
    We are in Socal and can get Net Energy Metering tier 1 from SCE no problem.

    Due to what I believe is a zip code related pricing strategy of the Sunpower dealer network, we have received some outrageous bids in the past. This is the first company I've had back for a second estimate. They are extremely nice and I like the contract terms, which they have altered to put more payment on the backend. I also believe this is Sunpower's newest panel, which is always nice.

    I know this is a small project compared to most I've seen here, so I have trouble judging this pricing except against the other bids we received. I would love to hear thoughts on the merits of this proposed project.

    Thank you!

  • #2
    So, given some reasonably south orientation and not a lot of shade, you'll get something like 4,500 or kWh/yr. from such an array. If you are a low user (Tier one),. how much do you anticipate your proposed array will save/yr .? Or, what the savings would be if you switched tariffs to T.O.U.?

    Having done all your careful looking, did you also see where a lot of folks, here and elsewhere, think Sunpower stuff, while good quality, is no better in terms of reliability and annual output than other quality stuff that will be, in all likelihood, as fit for purpose for about 20-30 % less upfront ?

    Pay your money, take your choice. What your considering doing is analogous to buying a Mercedes (Sunpower) as a grocery hauler when a Ford or Toyota (LG, solar World, Canadian Solar, etc.)is as fit for purpose. Solar PV is an appliance, not a lifestyle.

    Cost effectiveness may not be a consideration for you, but FWIW, FYI and NOMB or concern, if you are indeed in tier one, your rate is the lowest and your usage is close to minimal. If so, I doubt solar is cost effective for you in any realistic sense. Do what you want and God bless, but don't believe your saving money in the long run unless it is indeed a very long run.

    Just Walk in with your eyes and mind open and understand that most of the smart money sees the "most efficient" and super duper (?) S.P. warranty nonsense as mostly advertising hype and overkill respectively. If you do intend to carry looking at PV, even though it's almost always the most expensive way to lower an electric bill, I'd respectfully suggest you consider getting off the S.P. kick and get a few more quotes from respectable and established contractors that sell/install other equal/better quality equipment for a lot less $$.

    Welcome to the neighborhood and the forum of straight(er) talk, and few(er) illusions.

    Comment


    • #3
      J.P.M. Your response seems pretty dismissive and bitter, maybe your a (non SP) installer yourself or otherwise party to a conflicting interest. Whatever the case its clear you have an irrational beef with Sunpower that I don't have anything to do with. Lets just get this straight: I'm not going to buy anything from you or anyone you know because you demean this project and my post in a weak attempt to make me feel insecure or unsure about my proposed project.

      I'm interested in discussing the merits of this project, the pricing/cost per watt, relative to this system size, the equipment proposed, and my location (Orange County, CA). If you want to discuss in a normal fashion these ideas, please consider my responses to your concerns below.

      Sunpower has the best efficiency, and I cannot fit more than 8, maybe 9 max with some shading, panels on my southern roof. 2.88kW is already pretty small, by going with a lesser panel I'll get a lesser system, and the fixed costs of doing anything become a larger part of the whole project. At a certain point its just not worth doing, I estimate that point starts just below 3kW so I'm already at the borderline.

      Here in Socal I can't imagine what a tier 1 person lives like, no AC ever, no computers, and 1 light on every other night? We're lucky when we aren't in tier 5. 4,500 kWh/yr is about half our usage @ 8800kWh/yr, so this project takes us cleanly out of the top tiers without trying to generate tier 1 or tier 2 electricity that we can buy from SCE cheaply. With the 30% tax credit, payoff is ~6 to 7 years.

      Personally I'd like to see someone beat this proposed system, but I've had other estimates and they suck! I'm not interested in being jerked around by two bit losers, I can do that kind of work myself if I want (read: if the wife would let me). I want someone that I can hold liable in court if they screw up, and they have to be able to rub two cents together to make that worth doing. So reputable companies with a long term horizon, elite sunpower dealers, solarcity, etc only.

      Hows that for straight shootin' Tex?
      Last edited by josephnunn; 08-22-2016, 11:49 AM.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by josephnunn View Post
        J.P.M. Your response seems pretty dismissive and bitter, maybe your a (non SP) installer yourself or otherwise party to a conflicting interest. Whatever the case its clear you have an irrational beef with Sunpower that I don't have anything to do with. Lets just get this straight: I'm not going to buy anything from you or anyone you know because you demean this project and my post in a weak attempt to make me feel insecure or unsure about my proposed project.

        I'm interested in discussing the merits of this project, the pricing/cost per watt, relative to this system size, the equipment proposed, and my location (Orange County, CA). If you want to discuss in a normal fashion these ideas, please consider my responses to your concerns below.

        Sunpower has the best efficiency, and I cannot fit more than 8, maybe 9 max with some shading, panels on my southern roof. 2.88kW is already pretty small, by going with a lesser panel I'll get a lesser system, and the fixed costs of doing anything become a larger part of the whole project. At a certain point its just not worth doing, I estimate that point starts just below 3kW so I'm already at the borderline.

        Here in Socal I can't imagine what a tier 1 person lives like, no AC ever, no computers, and 1 light on every other night? We're lucky when we aren't in tier 5. 4,500 kWh/yr is about half our usage @ 8800kWh/yr, so this project takes us cleanly out of the top tiers without trying to generate tier 1 or tier 2 electricity that we can buy from SCE cheaply. With the 30% tax credit, payoff is ~6 to 7 years.

        Personally I'd like to see someone beat this proposed system, but I've had other estimates and they suck! I'm not interested in being jerked around by two bit losers, I can do that kind of work myself if I want (read: if the wife would let me). I want someone that I can hold liable in court if they screw up, and they have to be able to rub two cents together to make that worth doing. So reputable companies with a long term horizon, elite sunpower dealers, solarcity, etc only.

        Hows that for straight shootin' Tex?
        LOL. Actually I will let JPM defend himself but he actually had someone install SP panels on his home. He and most others here do not believe the extra cost is worth it even with limited space.

        What they claim they can do and what you pay never seems to cover the extra cost. But again it is your money and you can spend it the way you want.

        Comment


        • #5
          I will also defend JPM in his advice to try some alternatives besides SunPower. There are other high-efficiency panels (Panasonic, LG) that any good installer can obtain for you at a much better $/w price. PV panels from any mainstream solar manufacturer are all high-quality and durable but with limited space you are justified in going for the high-efficiency ones. Focus on getting a good installer that has attention to detail.
          I would also say that being in a hot climate, AC panels and microinverters in general are a definite reliability risk. Roof mounted electronics and heat are not a reliable combination.
          BSEE, R11, NABCEP, Chevy BoltEV, >3000kW installed

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by josephnunn View Post
            J.P.M. Your response seems pretty dismissive and bitter, maybe your a (non SP) installer yourself or otherwise party to a conflicting interest. Whatever the case its clear you have an irrational beef with Sunpower that I don't have anything to do with. Lets just get this straight: I'm not going to buy anything from you or anyone you know because you demean this project and my post in a weak attempt to make me feel insecure or unsure about my proposed project.

            I'm interested in discussing the merits of this project, the pricing/cost per watt, relative to this system size, the equipment proposed, and my location (Orange County, CA). If you want to discuss in a normal fashion these ideas, please consider my responses to your concerns below.

            Sunpower has the best efficiency, and I cannot fit more than 8, maybe 9 max with some shading, panels on my southern roof. 2.88kW is already pretty small, by going with a lesser panel I'll get a lesser system, and the fixed costs of doing anything become a larger part of the whole project. At a certain point its just not worth doing, I estimate that point starts just below 3kW so I'm already at the borderline.

            Here in Socal I can't imagine what a tier 1 person lives like, no AC ever, no computers, and 1 light on every other night? We're lucky when we aren't in tier 5. 4,500 kWh/yr is about half our usage @ 8800kWh/yr, so this project takes us cleanly out of the top tiers without trying to generate tier 1 or tier 2 electricity that we can buy from SCE cheaply. With the 30% tax credit, payoff is ~6 to 7 years.

            Personally I'd like to see someone beat this proposed system, but I've had other estimates and they suck! I'm not interested in being jerked around by two bit losers, I can do that kind of work myself if I want (read: if the wife would let me). I want someone that I can hold liable in court if they screw up, and they have to be able to rub two cents together to make that worth doing. So reputable companies with a long term horizon, elite sunpower dealers, solarcity, etc only.

            Hows that for straight shootin' Tex?
            Not bad. But I would infer from your response to my comments, that have more or less been my mantra for the 3 or so yrs. I've been here, that you would prefer to hear (or read actually) thoughts from others that agree with what you've already decided to do and seem to be looking more for an attaboy than for critical comment.

            You can take my (solicited) comments for what they are worth or not, or anything in between. All the same to me. They were not meant as dismissive or bitter. Nor do I have much truck with political correctness. Perhaps you consider my unvarnished, but, I believe civil, response offensive. So be it. BTW, I'm not from Texas. I suspect some Texans who show up here would take some exception to your inclusion of me in that august body.

            As to the merits of your project, since that's your stated interest: IMO, like many who come here it seems to me your ideas are not well thought out, you've perhaps not done enough homework to help make the best decision, your paying too much, even for Sunpower stuff (I paid $4.50/Watt almost exactly 3 years ago, prices have gone down, and I got a bunch of goodies thrown in), and Orange county is about the same pricing and a lot of the same vendors as my area (92026).

            Your reference to "tier one from SCE" led me to infer you had low tier one usage. In that case, you'll have a harder (and longer) time getting to cost effectiveness if that is one of your goals. At ~ 8,800 kWh/yr. the outlook is a bit better, but still, IMO, may take longer than you think.

            I have no beef with Sunpower quality. Their pricing is simply too high for what they deliver. Most informed users and potential customers have figured that out.

            Not my house/money/life. Enjoy.

            I often end a post with: "Take what you want of the above. Scrap the rest."

            However, I'll get something off my chest.

            I'm retired. I've been that way for a long time. I represent no one but myself. I was a peddler for 10+ years and returned to school because I was fortunate and because of a developed interest in solar energy in the mid '70's. Upon graduation, I began a new career as a mechanical engineer designing power equipment - boilers, heat transfer equipment, etc., all the while maintaining an interest in solar energy as more than a hobby, but less than a job. Meanwhile, I entered graduate school and after 6 more years of part time effort, got an MSME degree while working, and also got a P.E. license along the way after sufficient qualifying experience and testing. Now also retired.

            Part of my job when tasked as a project engineer/later mgr., among lots of other duties was to determine various ways to examine and then choose the best mix of safety, practicality and cost effectiveness of projects and examine engineering alternatives to meet project goals using process economics and other methods. That's one of the things I learned and practiced that often comes in handy around here.

            I'm here because I care about alternate/renewable energy and believe I have something to contribute that's more than the usual crap advertising from those who do have something to sell or crap from those who only know how to repeat what they see/hear that fits their ignorant and mostly uninformed view of reality (I know - yea me).

            In the interest of full disclosure, I do however, have some skin in the game. I got a pension buyout from a former employer and bought 10,000 shares of Sunpower stock in the 2d half of 2012 for ~ $4.50/pop, and finagled them into my Roth IRA. In Nov. of 2013, I sold 1,000 of those shares for ~ $33/sh and used the proceeds to pay for my Sunpower array, a bunch of roof repairs and a really spiffy weather station that helps me to estimate my array's performance. Sunpower stock appreciation paid for my array. One of the reasons (but not the only one) I bought Sunpower stock was because, having been a relatively successful, but bored peddler, I believe I see the thorough job they've done and continue to do at B.S.'ing the solar ignorant who usually have more money than solar knowledge. Someone will make money is such situations. It's just business. Buy what you know. Anyway, any opinions I may influence around here by honest, but not necessarily positive discussion probably amount to less than fly specs in terms of how it affects a corp. balance sheet.

            You can take what I write or leave it as you wish. FWIW, I probably forgot more about solar energy than most anyone you're going to speak with or communicate with knows about the subject. Consider it free advice.
            Last edited by J.P.M.; 08-23-2016, 11:17 AM.

            Comment


            • #7
              SunEagle & Solarix:

              I appreciate your comments, and while not trying to sound like a total prick and also not try to do your thinking for you, defense is not a word I believe to be appropriate for this situation. Supportive, or like minded opinions might be a couple of ways I'd express it. To me (only) the word "defend" has sort of an implication that I wrote something rancorous, which I do not believe I did. The use of "defend", may lead others to infer that sides are being taken. FWIW, I don't believe that's the best way to improve communication. Besides, as SunEagle may seem to be saying, I can take care of myself. Agree/disagree as you see fit, but my opinions need no outside defense, or any at all for that matter. Just sayin'.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post
                SunEagle & Solarix:

                I appreciate your comments, and while not trying to sound like a total prick and also not try to do your thinking for you, defense is not a word I believe to be appropriate for this situation. Supportive, or like minded opinions might be a couple of ways I'd express it. To me (only) the word "defend" has sort of an implication that I wrote something rancorous, which I do not believe I did. The use of "defend", may lead others to infer that sides are being taken. FWIW, I don't believe that's the best way to improve communication. Besides, as SunEagle may seem to be saying, I can take care of myself. Agree/disagree as you see fit, but my opinions need no outside defense, or any at all for that matter. Just sayin'.
                Point taken. I sometimes have to work on my grammar.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by SunEagle View Post

                  Point taken. I sometimes have to work on my grammar.
                  Understood. Please do not interpret my remarks in response to you or Solarix' posts as being meant in an unfriendly or ungrateful way.

                  J.P.M.

                  Edit: FWIW, and not really on any topic, the instantaneous input/output for my array at min. in incidence angle (3.64 deg., @ 13:12 P.D.T.), about 45 min. ago with the array about as clean as I can make it as of 7 A.M. today.

                  GHI: 928 W/m^2
                  POA: 995 W/m^2
                  total array POA: 25,953 W

                  T, amb. @ array: 34.2 C.
                  Ave. cell temp. est. from string voltage correlation: 61.2 C.
                  Ave. cell temp. est. from SAM/NREL est. method: 61.1 C.

                  Array output as recorded by/at inverter : 4,403 W
                  Inverter output as recorded by/at inverter : 4,268 W.

                  Gross estimated efficiency from recorded readings: 4,268/25,953 ~ 0.164

                  Unknown but calc'd/est. wiring losses are ~~ 0.013 (1.3 %). Panel eff. loss/deg. C. from S.P. spec sheet is 0.00386/deg.C.

                  As best as I can track (SWAG) it, the array performance is approx. .9964 of the new STC efficiency after 34 months of operation and was about 2.9% over spec when new/clean on startup.

                  The calculated fouling est. for today using the above data was 0.0005. I can't claim that much accuracy or precision, but after cleaning the array every morning since 08/04, I'm assuming it's pretty clean.

                  The same daily procedure of cleaning in the A.M. and measuring instan. output at time of min. incidence angle for the last 14 days when it was clear, and close to normal (perpendicular) solar incidence produced an average fouling value of -0.0011, or approx. zero. Min. fouling value for the data set was -0.0057, max. was +0.0061. I'm guessing I might be good to +/- 0.0075 or ~ +/- 3/4 of one % at this time.

                  I intend to not touch the array (no cleaning except what mother nature may provide in the way of precipitation) until the winter solstice while keeping an eye on performance on a regular basis as f(time, weather) as above.
                  Last edited by J.P.M.; 08-22-2016, 05:35 PM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post

                    Understood. Please do not interpret my remarks in response to you or Solarix' posts as being meant in an unfriendly or ungrateful way.

                    J.P.M.
                    Not taken as unfriendly at all. I understand your point of view entirely.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by josephnunn View Post
                      Here in Socal I can't imagine what a tier 1 person lives like, no AC ever, no computers, and 1 light on every other night?
                      Tier 1 is about 13kwhr a day - which is well within the scope of someone living coastally (i.e. very little A/C) with one fridge and the usual assortment of lights/entertainment etc. That's an average of a little over half a kilowatt. When I first rented a house here in San Diego I averaged about 12kwhr/day, mainly because I was working 12 hour days and I just didn't have that much in the way of loads.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Thank you everyone for relying to my post!

                        J.P.M. I'm sorry for the miscommunication, you don't know me, and I don't know you, so sometimes that happens. However you took my response in stride and I've respect for that. Some clarification though could help, when I mentioned 'tier 1' in my initial post, I was referring to the NEM cap @ 5% of SCE production, I believe there will be a second phase, cap, tier etc after that 5% is reached. I can understand how someone might have a prior bias to interpreting the phrase 'tier 1' as referring to energy consumption, despite the surrounding context. In which case you may have thought my project a completely frivolous, unnecessary expense, and perhaps that thought came through loud and clear in your response, unwarranted though it might have been, and thus my response. However it is now plain that I clearly have a valid level of consumption for seriously considering this project.

                        I've checked out your zip code and see that you do indeed live not too far from us, and I've had vendors from as far as San Diego and Lake Elsinore come to give us estimates. Unfortunately when you got your project done 3 years ago I was getting bids in the 6-7 dollar a watt range, which I found ridiculous even then. If you got a Sunpower project done at $4.5 a watt 3 years ago I would like to know what vendor you used, so I can see about getting an estimate from them myself. An additional confounding variable may be your array size, as my project is small and I'm sure I'm not getting the best price per watt as someone putting up a much larger array, what is the size of the array you had put up?

                        @Everyone I would consider other makes of panels, but as I can only fit 9 on the roof what kind of system could I get? I suspect not that much, which is why I have focused on Sunpower. Dropping below 3kWh just does not make sense for us, if you have suggestions of other panel makes comparable to Sunpower efficency I would like to hear about them.
                        Last edited by josephnunn; 08-23-2016, 02:05 PM.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Don't necessarily rule out west or east facing panels, if you have roof that faces those directions.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by josephnunn View Post
                            Thank you everyone for relying to my post!

                            J.P.M. I'm sorry for the miscommunication, you don't know me, and I don't know you, so sometimes that happens. However you took my response in stride and I've respect for that. Some clarification though could help, when I mentioned 'tier 1' in my initial post, I was referring to the NEM cap @ 5% of SCE production, I believe there will be a second phase, cap, tier etc after that 5% is reached. I can understand how someone might have a prior bias to interpreting the phrase 'tier 1' as referring to energy consumption, despite the surrounding context. In which case you may have thought my project a completely frivolous, unnecessary expense, and perhaps that thought came through loud and clear in your response, unwarranted though it might have been, and thus my response. However it is now plain that I clearly have a valid level of consumption for seriously considering this project.

                            I've checked out your zip code and see that you do indeed live not too far from us, and I've had vendors from as far as San Diego and Lake Elsinore come to give us estimates. Unfortunately when you got your project done 3 years ago I was getting bids in the 6-7 dollar a watt range, which I found ridiculous even then. If you got a Sunpower project done at $4.5 a watt 3 years ago I would like to know what vendor you used, so I can see about getting an estimate from them myself. An additional confounding variable may be your array size, as my project is small and I'm sure I'm not getting the best price per watt as someone putting up a much larger array, what is the size of the array you had put up?

                            @Everyone I would consider other makes of panels, but as I can only fit 9 on the roof what kind of system could I get? I suspect not that much, which is why I have focused on Sunpower. Dropping below 3kWh just does not make sense for us, if you have suggestions of other panel makes comparable to Sunpower efficency I would like to hear about them.
                            Consider this: A smaller (electrical) size with non Sunpower panels in the same physical area and save ~ a buck/Watt less before fed. tax credit. Then, do two things: consider the net present value of the cost of the extra electricity you may need to buy as a result of a slightly smaller (electrical) size system w/ non S.P equipment. Then, also consider the net present value of the cost of additional conservation measures that will offset the same amount of electrical load incurred by having the smaller system. There are always alternatives and choices. Most things are not dichotomous all/nothing. The goal is to reduce the electric bill, usually in the most cost effective way(s) first, not solar as an end in itself, but solar as one tool among many, and usually close to the last because of its cost effectiveness relative to the other bill reduction tools and their usually greater cost effectiveness.

                            I do not believe there was miscommunication. Among other things, I believe you have incomplete information as to what's going on in the CA energy market with respect to what AB 327 has done to POCO rates and net metering in CA. Once the 5% cap is reached, there is no "tier 2", just a different set of net metering requirements. However, that deals with your subject knowledge and not your motives as you seem to have concluded about my reasons for being here. As for what happened, I usually manage to avoid insults. I'm moving forward. No hard feelings on my end.

                            You will find complete information about my array in the CSI database under reservation # SD-CSI-17646. My vendor does not service Orange Co. However, several other vendors in your area do and will be more than happy to sell you Sunpower for about what I paid - maybe a bit more or less based on your size, or other equal quality, fit for purpose equipment for a lot less.

                            I remain of the opinion that those buying S.P. stuff and doing so thinking they got the most bang for their buck, have more money than brains and swallow the "most efficient" Sunpower H.S. - or greatest bumper/bumper warranty stuff - BTW - if S.P. stuff is so great, please explain to me why such a super duper warranty is needed in the first place.

                            Considering all the ways to reduce an electric bill, PV is the least cost effective, and Sunpower is the most expensive of all the available PV choices.

                            I believe I learned that in most situations, if the most cost effective outcome is one goal, it's more cost effective to do the cheap stuff first when possible. In this case that usually means turning stuff off, followed by passive conservation measures like insulation, then material /equipment changeout.

                            PV, being the least cost effective, is the measure and only then to the limit of the LCOE (levelized cost of electricity) for the PV being equal to the LCOE for the remaining electrical load, or the most cost effective PV size that minimizes the blended LCOE for the two sources of energy - POCO and PV.

                            Knowledge is power. Get some of the first. The second will follow and help with more informed choices, cost effective or not.

                            Last edited by J.P.M.; 08-23-2016, 04:50 PM. Reason: Spelling.

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