Solar panel manufacturing plant 25mw/year

[hse]

Hello All!

I have lived in Canada for most of my life and lately I have been interested in solar technology. My father who runs a small business has asked me to look into business oppurtunities in green energy.

I did some research, spent a huge amount of time and have been influenced by a few people that starting a business to manufacture/assembe solar panel is the way to go.

Since my parents are from India and we still have ties there: I was thinking we should start a solar panel assembly plant in India.

Now to all you solar guys/gals: Is this a good idea? Investment is huge. I have already been looking into different companies that can supply me machinery and talks are in full flow.

My doubts:
How is this market going to be in the future?
What if I invest and the technology suddenly changes?
Am i too late? or too quick?

Thank you for your time!

[russ]

Hi hse - Welcome to Solar Panel Talk!

Tough question for which one almost needs a crystal ball to reply.

Solar is propped by subsidies, incentives, tax credits and mandates. How much money are the governments around the world going to have to throw at solar in the next ten years?

I would say, Greece near zero, Ireland near zero, Portugal near zero, Spain near zero and the US not very much when it is borrowing the funds. Others, outside of Germany & China, are all borrowing funds to give away.

I would be scared of the investment. The newer and smaller companies will be the first to fold normally.

Good luck with whatever choice you make!

Russ

[Mike90250]

India is not going to have any Co2 emission regulation, so there goes any incentive to use solar there, except for a few installs where somebody is willing to pay for it.

I think China is going to take over the PV market, as they appear to have lots of labor and goverment funding.

[Kunal Mutha]

Hey.

Hey,

I was just going through various discussions on this website and i came across your post. We are getting into
similar business in few months. We are based in Chennai, India. Our plant capacity is of about 25 MW and
the equipments are going to be imported from Europe. We have a tie up with a Spanish company for the
training and technical support.

As far as the scope for panel manufacturing in India is concerned, we are expecting a huge boom in the coming
years. Government of India has announced various policies with plans to install 20 Gigawatt by 2020. Currently
we have manufacturing capacity of mere 700 MW. The panels to be installed in India have to be "Made in India".
This move is going eliminate the international competition, making India a solar manufacturing hub in the next
few years. In addition to the government support we have many other factors like cheap labour and low electricity
cost making our panels competitive to ones made in other countries.

It would be interesting to know about your plans. Please do not hesitate to email me.


Regards,
Kunal Mutha

Email : kunal.mutha@mmenergy.co.in

[Sunking]

In addition to the government support we have many other factors like cheap labour and low electricity
cost making our panels competitive to ones made in other countries.

Here lies the big lie about RE sources. China and India cheap electricity comes from Coal. China and India like any other country knows full well RE has no chance to be a major energy producer, especially in developing nations like China and India. So the scheme is choke developed countries who force themselves to use much higher cost energy sources like RE while they eat our lunch making inexpensive solar panels to sell to us suckers.

[greenHouse]

Here lies the big lie about RE sources. China and India cheap electricity comes from Coal. China and India like any other country knows full well RE has no chance to be a major energy producer, especially in developing nations like China and India. So the scheme is choke developed countries who force themselves to use much higher cost energy sources like RE while they eat our lunch making inexpensive solar panels to sell to us suckers.

This explains why China is planting wind turbines like crazy and India is looking at Thorium breeder technology ...

As for RE, at the rate costs are falling, only fools won't install solar in years to come.

[russ]

The 'Center' in India (meaning the government) loves to make grand pronouncements and then promptly forgets about the topic once the publicity is in hand.

The last thing in the world that India needs to do is give money to the industrialists for expensive solar when the poor remain without a few things like food, clean water, adequate medical, on and on - not to mention how many millions have little or no access at all to electricity.

It takes tremendous effort to 'convince' the politicians of what 'needs' to be done - making and keeping them happy isn't easy - or cheap for that matter. As soon as they get 'unhappy' they tend to start to listen to the next proposal.

I watched that game daily for 15 years!

Russ

[Kunal Mutha]

I am in full support of the robust growth in manufacturing of the RE sources in these countries as this is going to contribute majorly to achieve

[greenHouse]

[QUOTE=Kunal Mutha;15711]I am in full support of the robust growth in manufacturing of the RE sources in these countries as this is going to contribute majorly to achieve

[Sunking]

India is looking at Thorium breeder technology

Now you are talking real power and real cheap. Nuclear is the only answer. RE is just a side show. The sooner we realize that, the sooner we can solve our problems and quit wasting time, energy , and money chasing fruitless adventures.

[greenHouse]

Nuclear was the answer a long time ago, and perhaps if nuclear had become a bigger part of the global energy mix starting in the 60's we wouldn't be discussing solar. My father worked with Navy nuclear reactors in the 60's and 70's, and I studied them a lot in the 70's and into the 80's.

Now, however, nuclear is not the answer. If I remember correctly, we have something around 5,000MW of nuclear power in this state. There's no way we could -- politically speaking -- build the other 60,000MW it would take to get rid of coal, gas, oil, wind and solar. There's also no way we could fuel another 60 1,000MW reactors in this state, and however many would be needed for the rest of the country.

That, however, is all neither here nor there. The cost difference between wholesale generation and retail purchase means that solar is approaching a point where netting out daily load as close to zero is a financially viable option. Other aspects of solar means solar can pay for itself in single digits worth of years. For nuclear to be the answer, utilities will have to start selling power at wholesale prices -- retail is just too expensive.

[russ]

Should we shut down the thread or can we live in the real world? I will make one statement only.

Nuclear is acknowledged by many to be necessary and practical if the ultra green fools would go climb into the hole where they belong.

At what per kWh cost does solar PV become competitive? With all the rebates/incentives/FITs etc that the government is throwing at solar and wind they can compete with peak rates in a few states - nothing more today.

The inducements can not continue - no money available (except by borrowing). The present mess the 'scientists' and 'professors' have got us into is silly. The present 'science' based administration is turning a mess into a mega mess.

Keep the scientists in their white lab jackets and in the lab. It takes science supported engineering and not wishful thinking to go forward.

Russ

[greenHouse]

Russ,

Nuclear simply cannot be built to the scale that's needed. Period.

It's a great technology, and perhaps small form factor reactors, like Navy reactors, could be useful, but not in the quantities that need to be built.

To answer the next question, by my math, at $4.50 per DC watt, installed with 100% net-for-net, solar is competitive with retail electric power in much of Texas. One watt DC make 5.1 (Austin avg insolation) * 0.77 (NRL derating) * 365 (days) KWh per year, which is about 1.433KWh * $0.14 / KWh = $0.20. With a 25 year life on the micro-inverter based systems, that's absolute complete and total break-even within the system's life (present value calculation).

If your rates are lower, the break-even price will be lower. But the overall prices are doing nothing but going down.

[russ]

I disagree on the nukes - fine. If our rather stupid government officials would approve one reactor design to be repeated over and over without such extreme design reviews each time it would be easier.

The Navy certainly built the same reactor many times without the rules being changed by every new administrator - fortunately.

For grid tie solar and Texas - according to PV Watts follows:

"Station Identification"
"City:","Austin"
"State:","Texas"
"Lat (deg N):", 30.30
"Long (deg W):", 97.70
"Elev (m): ", 189
"PV System Specifications"
"DC Rating:"," 1.0 kW"
"DC to AC Derate Factor:"," 0.770"
"AC Rating:"," 0.8 kW"
"Array Type: Fixed Tilt"
"Array Tilt:"," 30.3"
"Array Azimuth:","180.0"

"Energy Specifications"
"Cost of Electricity:","14.0 cents/kWh"

"Results"
"Month", "Solar Radiation (kWh/m^2/day)", "AC Energy (kWh)", "Energy Value ($)"
1, 4.32, 99, 13.86
2, 4.96, 101, 14.14
3, 5.47, 122, 17.08
4, 5.52, 116, 16.24
5, 5.54, 118, 16.52
6, 5.93, 121, 16.94
7, 6.21, 129, 18.06
8, 6.22, 129, 18.06
9, 5.77, 119, 16.66
10, 5.65, 121, 16.94
11, 4.60, 98, 13.72
12, 3.96, 90, 12.60

"Year", - avg insolation 5.35, kWh generated 1362, value 190.68$ (at 14 cent per kWh)

That is 190 USD per year of power generated for a 1 kW DC system. Or a return of 190$ for an investment of ???. The benefit being that one does own a 25 year old system when it is finally paid off.

Can you get PV installed for 4.50$ there? Not thin film - that is yet to be seen and there is no guarantee it will function as advertised for the time period and less of a guarantee any of the companies selling it will be around in even five or ten years.

Russ

[greenHouse]

I disagree on the nukes - fine. If our rather stupid government officials would approve one reactor design to be repeated over and over without such extreme design reviews each time it would be easier.

The Navy certainly built the same reactor many times without the rules being changed by every new administrator - fortunately.

Yes, because all Navy reactors are in the same relatively benign and predictable environment -- the ocean. The same isn't true for land-based reactors. Think about the French heat wave a few years back when French nukes were shut down due to high cooling water temperatures.

Can you get PV installed for 4.50$ there? Not thin film - that is yet to be seen and there is no guarantee it will function as advertised for the time period and less of a guarantee any of the companies selling it will be around in even five or ten years.

Russ

Nope, not for mono and poly. But things have dropped to within striking distance.

And for thin film, if the charge controller and inverter people would cooperate with the weird voltages thin film puts out (or the thin film people would make panels with more reasonable voltages ...), $4.50 per watt would be doable today. I could probably do a thin film string inverter at pretty close to that, not that I care for string inverters.

And to answer the "how much?", at $4.50 per watt a 1,000 watt system is ... $4,500. $4,500 / $190 = 23.6 years, and there =are= some 23 year old systems out there. The reliability is less than what exists today, and they don't have fancy features, but I drive a 31 year old car that doesn't have airbags and it runs Just Fine -- it'll even snap your head off if you aren't careful with the gas pedal