Viability of CSP-oil hybridization in Saudi Arabia

[womatar]

Hello guys,

I have conducted a techno-economic analysis surrounding the integration of solar thermal energy in existing or new steam power plants in Saudi Arabia. Most of the fuels currently used for power generation are crude oil or refined oil products (resid, diesel). Crude is sold to local utilities here at less than 4 USD per barrel, whereas it could be put aside for future generations or add greater value to the local economy by putting it on the market.

This is an important issue for me as a Saudi, and I would love to get honest feedback about the analysis and results. Steam turbine units represent a large portion of the capacity in Saudi Arabia.

The major result that such integration does not become profitable without external incentives until the initial investment is made in 2018 does not seem unreasonable to me based on parabolic troughs' cost curve.

Thank you.

[Sunking]

As you have noted with a lift price of $4 UDS/barrel there is no way solar thermal can even remotely compete. Even at $150/barrel solar cannot compete.

[womatar]

True. The valuation is however done with an expected crude oil price range of 75 to 125 USD/barrel (in real 2010 dollars) as that would be the value of the oil freed up. The cash flows considered are the initial investment (capital costs) and the subsequent value of oil saved and operating costs for every year in the assumed lifespan of the CSP component.

[Sunking]

So where does the electricity come from when it is dark and needed most?

[womatar]

So where does the electricity come from when it is dark and needed most?

The approach taken is a passive one. Peak demand in much of Saudi takes place between 2 to 3 PM, so it provides heat to the steam cycle during the hot daytime. It does not run at all at night and the boiler provides all the heat input.

The amount of fuel savings takes that into account... so the value of the fuel saved in the economic analysis is only for the fuel saved during the daytime.