As you can tell by my post count I'm clearly a solar subject matter expert (NOT lol)!
I have been doing quite a bit of research and to make a long story short the subject scenario is what I really do want the "true" subject matter experts to weigh in on! First, here are a couple of quotes from Energysage that are likely irrefutable:
10 years ago, in 2009, the cost of a solar panel installation was $8.50 per watt. The solar industry today looks very different: in addition to solar panel efficiency increasing dramatically, solar panel producers have significantly improved their manufacturing processes. Solar installers, too, can deploy solar PV across the United States more efficiently now than they could ten years ago. The result: the price of solar has fallen by over 60 percent, to just $3.05/watt.
The price decreases over the past ten years are a major reason why homeowners are increasingly interested in installing solar panels. For a standard 6 kW home solar system, the average gross cost has fallen from $51,000 to just $18,300 in about the past decade. Subtract the 30 percent federal tax credit for solar, and you're looking at $12,810....
So let me set the stage one step further...if I told you that today's "premium" top tier high technology cell phone, laptop or UHD TV today came with a 10 to 25 year product/performance warranty are you likely to keep it and use it for 10 to 25 years? Why not? Simple, technology will make it obsolete long before 10-25 years!
Ok you say...oh but solar panels are different, they can produce for not only the 25 years, there are panels made decades ago that still produce. Of course this is true but at what relative cost then and inefficiency compared to "today's" current products?
So here is the crux of where I want to hear the pro's vs. the cons.....If TODAY I buy a ~30Kw solar system with "good" (e.g. REC/Peimar) but not top tier performance panels (LG/Panasonic/Sunpower) that can be had at close to half the price (e.g. REC N-Peak REC320NP 320w Mono Solar Panel for ~$176/panel vs Panasonic VBHN330SA16 330w Mono Solar Panel @ ~$342/panel) the "today's" cost of just panel's is about $15,488 vs. $30,096, close to a $15K price difference!!! For discussion purposes let's assume that the rest of the system is top notch by using the best inverter's available today, etc. And by the way, my estimated annual energy consumption is in the 75Kw range so even with a rated 30Kw system I will only be supplying about 2/3 of my requirements. I live in the Phoenix AZ area and yes I realize that I should be very focused on Panel temperature performance based on my location, hence my point for this whole discussion!
Set aside issues like inflation, current tax incentives, etc. to keep the analysis simple for a minute because one thing we all can agree on is that the relative cost/watt of ALL solar panels will continue to decrease over time.....so am I money ahead just flat out banking the ~ $15K price difference today and in 10-12 years when we see another "significant" step function change in panel cost reduction AND more importantly performance increases..... just flat replace today's "good" panels with "good" new future panels because I absolutely positively guarantee that a relative "good" panel in a decade will make todays "premium" panels look totally inefficient compared to what WILL be available then and enjoy the savings of a "good" system today and a killer system (relative to today) in 10-12 years rather than one which will clearly be mediocre by future standards that just continues to deteriorate and can't perform relative to what will be available?
I have been doing quite a bit of research and to make a long story short the subject scenario is what I really do want the "true" subject matter experts to weigh in on! First, here are a couple of quotes from Energysage that are likely irrefutable:
10 years ago, in 2009, the cost of a solar panel installation was $8.50 per watt. The solar industry today looks very different: in addition to solar panel efficiency increasing dramatically, solar panel producers have significantly improved their manufacturing processes. Solar installers, too, can deploy solar PV across the United States more efficiently now than they could ten years ago. The result: the price of solar has fallen by over 60 percent, to just $3.05/watt.
The price decreases over the past ten years are a major reason why homeowners are increasingly interested in installing solar panels. For a standard 6 kW home solar system, the average gross cost has fallen from $51,000 to just $18,300 in about the past decade. Subtract the 30 percent federal tax credit for solar, and you're looking at $12,810....
So let me set the stage one step further...if I told you that today's "premium" top tier high technology cell phone, laptop or UHD TV today came with a 10 to 25 year product/performance warranty are you likely to keep it and use it for 10 to 25 years? Why not? Simple, technology will make it obsolete long before 10-25 years!
Ok you say...oh but solar panels are different, they can produce for not only the 25 years, there are panels made decades ago that still produce. Of course this is true but at what relative cost then and inefficiency compared to "today's" current products?
So here is the crux of where I want to hear the pro's vs. the cons.....If TODAY I buy a ~30Kw solar system with "good" (e.g. REC/Peimar) but not top tier performance panels (LG/Panasonic/Sunpower) that can be had at close to half the price (e.g. REC N-Peak REC320NP 320w Mono Solar Panel for ~$176/panel vs Panasonic VBHN330SA16 330w Mono Solar Panel @ ~$342/panel) the "today's" cost of just panel's is about $15,488 vs. $30,096, close to a $15K price difference!!! For discussion purposes let's assume that the rest of the system is top notch by using the best inverter's available today, etc. And by the way, my estimated annual energy consumption is in the 75Kw range so even with a rated 30Kw system I will only be supplying about 2/3 of my requirements. I live in the Phoenix AZ area and yes I realize that I should be very focused on Panel temperature performance based on my location, hence my point for this whole discussion!
Set aside issues like inflation, current tax incentives, etc. to keep the analysis simple for a minute because one thing we all can agree on is that the relative cost/watt of ALL solar panels will continue to decrease over time.....so am I money ahead just flat out banking the ~ $15K price difference today and in 10-12 years when we see another "significant" step function change in panel cost reduction AND more importantly performance increases..... just flat replace today's "good" panels with "good" new future panels because I absolutely positively guarantee that a relative "good" panel in a decade will make todays "premium" panels look totally inefficient compared to what WILL be available then and enjoy the savings of a "good" system today and a killer system (relative to today) in 10-12 years rather than one which will clearly be mediocre by future standards that just continues to deteriorate and can't perform relative to what will be available?
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