Help me choose a system.

[Mike7381]

Here is an updated, SCE sent someone here and basically the upgraded main panel, inverters and all the equipment have to be relocate to the side wall because of the 3' clearance rule. This will add $1000 to the total cost, which is from $20,000 to $21,000 cash for 18 CS Panels with upgraded 200A panel and 800 SQ of roof before tax credit. Will you guys still continue with the project if you put yourself into my shoes? Or should I wait till later when the price of Solar is cheaper?

[J.P.M.]

Here is an updated, SCE sent someone here and basically the upgraded main panel, inverters and all the equipment have to be relocate to the side wall because of the 3' clearance rule. This will add $1000 to the total cost, which is from $20,000 to $21,000 cash for 18 CS Panels with upgraded 200A panel and 800 SQ of roof before tax credit. Will you guys still continue with the project if you put yourself into my shoes? Or should I wait till later when the price of Solar is cheaper?

Since you ask, and if you haven't signed a contract yet or if you can get out of it, if I was in your shoes, I'd wait a while. Maybe something like 6 months to a year.

During the interim, you can use the time to get more informed about ways to lower your electric bill, which is the goal - not necessarily solar for its own sake. You'll get more information which will help make for better choices.

You'll also have the opportunity to see what the new POCO rate structures will do to the cost effectiveness of residential solar. The party may well be over with PV no longer living in the POCO's basement and it will now need to make its own way in the world. PV prices may need to drop more to keep from being viewed as less cost effective than it already is.

[Mike7381]

Since you ask, and if you haven't signed a contract yet or if you can get out of it, if I was in your shoes, I'd wait a while. Maybe something like 6 months to a year.

During the interim, you can use the time to get more informed about ways to lower your electric bill, which is the goal - not necessarily solar for its own sake. You'll get more information which will help make for better choices.

You'll also have the opportunity to see what the new POCO rate structures will do to the cost effectiveness of residential solar. The party may well be over with PV no longer living in the POCO's basement and it will now need to make its own way in the world. PV prices may need to drop more to keep from being viewed as less cost effective than it already is.

Thanks, I am in sce area and I been studying my bill and their tarriff all these time. I had also done a lot of calculate to compare solar vs other options. In the long run solar always win (at least based on current tou tarriff) what I did is I subtract the estimated power that my system can generate (data from pvwatts, I used the low end data to be on the safe side) from my comsumption. So it is 11200 - 8500 = 2700 kwh. And multiple this number by the highest tou rate that i am going to join, which is $.35. And it is on the safe side, $945 + tax and basic charge of $.03 per day. So around $1000. Since my annual bill is $2500. So I save $1500 per year with Solar. The price now is $21000 - $6300 tax credit = 14700 - 800 sq of new roof that need to be replace within 2 yrs anyway. It is $4000 - 1200 tax credit = 2800 but let say $2700, so it is $12,000/1500 = so the longest payback time is 8 yrs and i didnt even deduct the money for the 200a panel upgrade. Also let say this system only last 20 yrs instead of 25 yrs from the warranty I get. 8500 x 20 yrs minus degrade, let say around 155000. So 12000/155000 = 7.8 cents per kwatts, less than half of their offpk water. For the new ac, it costs $3300 to install 3 minisplit on 3 of my rooms. It can probably save around $350 a year, take almost 10 yrs to break even and after 10 yrs probably need another ac system. My house have no attic and it is more money to make an attic with insulation for the whole house than solar and I dont think with the attic it can offset 70-75% of my bills. So Solar still the best option. It just that the upfront costs is high.

[max2k]

Thanks, I am in sce area and I been studying my bill and their tarriff all these time. I had also done a lot of calculate to compare solar vs other options. In the long run solar always win (at least based on current tou tarriff) what I did is I subtract the estimated power that my system can generate (data from pvwatts, I used the low end data to be on the safe side) from my comsumption. So it is 11200 - 8500 = 2700 kwh. And multiple this number by the highest tou rate that i am going to join, which is $.35. And it is on the safe side, $945 + tax and basic charge of $.03 per day. So around $1000. Since my annual bill is $2500. So I save $1500 per year with Solar. The price now is $21000 - $6300 tax credit = 14700 - 800 sq of new roof that need to be replace within 2 yrs anyway. It is $4000 - 1200 tax credit = 2800 but let say $2700, so it is $12,000/1500 = so the longest payback time is 8 yrs and i didnt even deduct the money for the 200a panel upgrade. Also let say this system only last 20 yrs instead of 25 yrs from the warranty I get. 8500 x 20 yrs minus degrade, let say around 155000. So 12000/155000 = 7.8 cents per kwatts, less than half of their offpk water. For the new ac, it costs $3300 to install 3 minisplit on 3 of my rooms. It can probably save around $350 a year, take almost 10 yrs to break even and after 10 yrs probably need another ac system. My house have no attic and it is more money to make an attic with insulation for the whole house than solar and I dont think with the attic it can offset 70-75% of my bills. So Solar still the best option. It just that the upfront costs is high.

Now it looks like you know why you getting solar and it looks conservative enough to me.

[J.P.M.]

Thanks, I am in sce area and I been studying my bill and their tarriff all these time. I had also done a lot of calculate to compare solar vs other options. In the long run solar always win (at least based on current tou tarriff) what I did is I subtract the estimated power that my system can generate (data from pvwatts, I used the low end data to be on the safe side) from my comsumption. So it is 11200 - 8500 = 2700 kwh. And multiple this number by the highest tou rate that i am going to join, which is $.35. And it is on the safe side, $945 + tax and basic charge of $.03 per day. So around $1000. Since my annual bill is $2500. So I save $1500 per year with Solar. The price now is $21000 - $6300 tax credit = 14700 - 800 sq of new roof that need to be replace within 2 yrs anyway. It is $4000 - 1200 tax credit = 2800 but let say $2700, so it is $12,000/1500 = so the longest payback time is 8 yrs and i didnt even deduct the money for the 200a panel upgrade. Also let say this system only last 20 yrs instead of 25 yrs from the warranty I get. 8500 x 20 yrs minus degrade, let say around 155000. So 12000/155000 = 7.8 cents per kwatts, less than half of their offpk water. For the new ac, it costs $3300 to install 3 minisplit on 3 of my rooms. It can probably save around $350 a year, take almost 10 yrs to break even and after 10 yrs probably need another ac system. My house have no attic and it is more money to make an attic with insulation for the whole house than solar and I dont think with the attic it can offset 70-75% of my bills. So Solar still the best option. It just that the upfront costs is high.

I wouldn't do my cost accounting that way, and based on what I think I might know, I'd count on T.O.U. rates becoming much less favorable than current rates, but it ain't my house/money/decision.

Good luck.

[max2k]

I wouldn't do my cost accounting that way, and based on what I think I might know, I'd count on T.O.U. rates becoming much less favorable than current rates, but it ain't my house/money/decision.

Good luck.

I think OP estimate is valid- he took his current bill and estimated savings based on max rate making savings minimal and then he took those min savings to estimate ROI. 8 years sounds conservative. My guess is no matter how utility changes rates he'd still get his 8 years or less as long as net metering exists. The way things go lately is instead of lowering solar costs/improving technology efforts are made to screw things up resulting in higher costs for electricity making solar more viable this way. So he should get his money back even sooner. I'd really pay attention to the equipment he is getting as it sounds he is going microinverters route. That might throw these estimates out of the window due to repair costs.

[J.P.M.]

I think OP estimate is valid- he took his current bill and estimated savings based on max rate making savings minimal and then he took those min savings to estimate ROI. 8 years sounds conservative. My guess is no matter how utility changes rates he'd still get his 8 years or less as long as net metering exists. The way things go lately is instead of lowering solar costs/improving technology efforts are made to screw things up resulting in higher costs for electricity making solar more viable this way. So he should get his money back even sooner. I'd really pay attention to the equipment he is getting as it sounds he is going microinverters route. That might throw these estimates out of the window due to repair costs.

I think it is as well, but mostly in the sense that the OP's estimate is valid because it's based on the OP's version of reality, and because it's the OP's money/home and no one else's, that's the end of the conversion.

However, there is a pretty substantial body of knowledge that deals with the financial end of decision making dealing with things like the time value of money, life cycle costing, comparison of alternatives analysis and other things that would suggest a different way to approach the value of a PV system and its ability to to reduce an electric bill over the long term.

All opinions are valid. Some produce better results. More knowledge about how to wring the most out of an asset (like a sum of money) can lead to a better financial situation. Knowledge is power.

[Mike7381]

I think OP estimate is valid- he took his current bill and estimated savings based on max rate making savings minimal and then he took those min savings to estimate ROI. 8 years sounds conservative. My guess is no matter how utility changes rates he'd still get his 8 years or less as long as net metering exists. The way things go lately is instead of lowering solar costs/improving technology efforts are made to screw things up resulting in higher costs for electricity making solar more viable this way. So he should get his money back even sooner. I'd really pay attention to the equipment he is getting as it sounds he is going microinverters route. That might throw these estimates out of the window due to repair costs.

No this system comed with solaredge se5000h with 99% efficiently.

[Mike7381]

I think it is as well, but mostly in the sense that the OP's estimate is valid because it's based on the OP's version of reality, and because it's the OP's money/home and no one else's, that's the end of the conversion.

However, there is a pretty substantial body of knowledge that deals with the financial end of decision making dealing with things like the time value of money, life cycle costing, comparison of alternatives analysis and other things that would suggest a different way to approach the value of a PV system and its ability to to reduce an electric bill over the long term.

All opinions are valid. Some produce better results. More knowledge about how to wring the most out of an asset (like a sum of money) can lead to a better financial situation. Knowledge is power.

To be honest, nobody know the future, we do not know how bad the utlilties company going to make the pv less efficient on lowering electric bill. However I do believe the rate that electricity price increase should be faster than they make pv less cost effective. I am also in Sce area which the rates are better than in sd. At least they havent come out with 3-9pm peak hrs. We have 3 tou plans. One of them have 12-6pm as peak hrs. Thats the one that are more favorable.

[sensij]

To be honest, nobody know the future, we do not know how bad the utlilties company going to make the pv less efficient on lowering electric bill. However I do believe the rate that electricity price increase should be faster than they make pv less cost effective. I am also in Sce area which the rates are better than in sd. At least they havent come out with 3-9pm peak hrs. We have 3 tou plans. One of them have 12-6pm as peak hrs. Thats the one that are more favorable.

It might surprise you, but several forum members running the numbers have found TOU-D-A nosing out ahead of TOU-D-T. Even with the later peak hours, the way the credits accumulate during the other periods can be favorable. Always a good idea to double check against your specific circumstances.

[J.P.M.]

To be honest, nobody know the future, we do not know how bad the utlilties company going to make the pv less efficient on lowering electric bill. However I do believe the rate that electricity price increase should be faster than they make pv less cost effective. I am also in Sce area which the rates are better than in sd. At least they havent come out with 3-9pm peak hrs. We have 3 tou plans. One of them have 12-6pm as peak hrs. Thats the one that are more favorable.

On knowing the future, for sure, least of all me.

But for the relatively small effort required compared to the relatively large financial commitment involved, having some knowledge of how folks who make a living doing real financial analysis do it, along with the knowledge of what, and in what ways, financial parameters may apply to a situation or not, as well as being aware of what the future might hold in terms of which way the wind is blowing with respect to rate reform, seems worth the effort to me.

But, I reiterate, not my money/house/commitment/life/whatever. I'd also respectfully suggest that not everyone who tells you what you might not want to hear is trying to screw you.

[Mike7381]

Just an update: the deal is off now because of that additional $1000. Well not really exactly because of that. Financial is tight after that 20,000 not to mention 21000. So when they asked for $1000 more, i didnt want to do it anymore, at least not at this time. I having someone come in to install 2 mini split ac/heating system, we will see how much exactly it will save. According to my research, each system should be using around 500-550w maybe less if the room temp are near the temp of the set temp on the ac. My central use around 2-2.2 kw. So can probably save 10-12 kw a day during summer. Thats around $75- $100 a month.

[J.P.M.]

Just an update: the deal is off now because of that additional $1000. Well not really exactly because of that. Financial is tight after that 20,000 not to mention 21000. So when they asked for $1000 more, i didnt want to do it anymore, at least not at this time. I having someone come in to install 2 mini split ac/heating system, we will see how much exactly it will save. According to my research, each system should be using around 500-550w maybe less if the room temp are near the temp of the set temp on the ac. My central use around 2-2.2 kw. So can probably save 10-12 kw a day during summer. Thats around $75- $100 a month.

Well, that'll give you more time to knowledge up about conservation efforts and the limits of solar energy as well as the strengths. Just keep in mind that the 30% tax credit will not last forever, and that PV will probably be less cost effective in the future as POCO rates get adjusted. It's a fluid situation.

[Mike7381]

That POCO rate effect sce terriority too?

[J.P.M.]

That POCO rate effect sce terriority too?

SCE is one of the 3 investor owned utilities that AB 327 was written to address. The rate reform is a result of AB 327. Things will be less sunny for PV in the future. Results will vary by POCO, but they'll be somewhat similar one to another. Read the bill and see what SCE has written on the subject of net metering and rate reform, particularly TOU rates/tariffs. The NEM party isn't over, it's just not as sweet a deal as before. You will find that unless vendors lower their prices a fair amount more, PV will be less cost effective in the future than when you started this quest.