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Limiting the subject for the moment to the economics of PV and no other issues, One way to look at it is from a process economics standpoint and comparison of alternatives. Unfortunately, in doing so, the reality is, because the future is unknown, that process usually involves a lot of estimates about that future - starting with how long you expect to use the system, or have it be useful....................... Added to that, reasonable (whatever that means) guesses about future energy prices, system maint. costs, rates of inflation, potential ways to invest the funds, their future and rates of return, and as many things as you think pertinent can go into the mix.................... Simple example: I've got $25K to invest. I'm going to live in my house for 12 years, then move/die/whatever. I can spend (invest) the money in a PV system. I assume the system will add no more to the value of my home than a 12 year old water heater or 12 year old kitchen remodel. The PV system I choose is estimated to offset, at current electric rates, $2,500/ yr. of my electric bill, which electric bill I estimate will increase in price at, say, 4 %/yr. There are no maint. costs. First question, does the NET PRESENT VALUE (The "NPV") of the $2,500/yr.savings (and assuming those annual savings are reinvested at some rate and so compounded a bit) for the PV investment option over 12 years equal or exceed $25K ? If so, that's one consideration........................... Next, Il look around. Can I find an investment that is "reasonably" safe and will pay me what I consider a reasonable rate of return, perhaps guaranteed ( whatever that means) for at least 12 years that I can bail out of if I wish ? Then, is the net present value of that option, including all the reinvested interest AND the return of my $25K at the end of 12 years worth more or less than the solar return ? If the alternate investment NPV (Net Present Value) is less than the solar option, then choose the solar option. If greater than the solar option, choose the alternate. The key here is how to do the NPV analysis, and which terms of many, to include................................... Then, assuming the solar option is the choice, comparing a premium for Sunpower over other equipment, many of the same uncertainties about the future apply. Will Sunpower produce more energy per installed Watt over the next 12 years ? Looks like it MIGHT. How much ? Looks like not a whole lot and probably not 10% more, at least over 12 years.............................. Back of the envelope stuff: If published stuff if to be believed, S.P. performance rolls off at something like 0.25%/yr. per published specs. If other panels drop off at .7%/yr., then after 12 years, Sunpower will put out ROUGHLY ~ (1.007/1.0025)^12 ~~ = 1.06 or about 6% more output over 12 years. (BTW, and FWIW, it'll take about 21 years to equal 10 % more output using that Back of envelope method.) ..................... I've suggested an opinion that S.P. stuff may be worth a 5 % or so premium. I'll stick with that as an opinion for now. As for the warranty: IMO, based on how stuff doesn't seem to be failing, S.P. or other quality panels, I see that as a bogus red herring issue that uses people's solar ignorance to monger fear. I think it's B.S. If the stuff is as good as they claim, why is such a (claimed) great warranty needed in the first place ?...................................... A 10% premium is getting closer to being cost effective, and better (less) than the still common 15 -25% premium extracted for Sunpower stuff, but still has a way to go............................. An aside: I also suspect more than a few vendors who carry more than one line of panel - i.e. most vendors, price the S.P. stuff deliberately high so as to be able to price other panels higher and still make them seem a bargain compared to the S.P. stuff. I know - you and I would NEVER fall for THAT. But, I'd bet money there are a lot of solar ignorant folks who would and have. It's sometimes called selling up by selling down...
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JPM - I like your economic analysis, and I agree. For the average homeowner who's more likely than not to move in 10-15 years, paying the premium for SP probably is not the way to go. For my family, we are relatively young, and barring unforeseen circumstances, we have no plans to move. Next stop is the nursing home, God willing
As you calculated, I'm counting on the extra 10% production from these panels over 20 years, but I'm also confident that the construction of SP panels means they stand a decent chance of lasting twice that long, or at least as good of a chance as other panel types. If I'm fortunate enough to get 35 or 40 years out of these panels, they are the last panels I'll ever need. In my situation, the cheapest panels are the ones I only have to buy once in a lifetime, and the SP panels might just outlive me. Or get close enough
9.38kW SP tinyurl.com/ReidySunnyPortalComment
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Every situation is different as are opinions to the best choices and hail the freedom to choose. I only suggest knowing the situation as best and as much as possible and then try to make objective choices. In the end, factors outside of my control usually dictate my choices more than I like, but I try to go down swingin', having walked into a situation trying into know how the game is run as much as possible.JPM - I like your economic analysis, and I agree. For the average homeowner who's more likely than not to move in 10-15 years, paying the premium for SP probably is not the way to go. For my family, we are relatively young, and barring unforeseen circumstances, we have no plans to move. Next stop is the nursing home, God willing As you calculated, I'm counting on the extra 10% production from these panels over 20 years, but I'm also confident that the construction of SP panels means they stand a decent chance of lasting twice that long, or at least as good of a chance as other panel types. If I'm fortunate enough to get 35 or 40 years out of these panels, they are the last panels I'll ever need. In my situation, the cheapest panels are the ones I only have to buy once in a lifetime, and the SP panels might just outlive me. Or get close enough Comment
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While I support your decision based on the fact that you have done the research and know what you were getting for the 15% premium, personally I wouldn't compare owning solar panels with owning cars for obvious reasons.FWIW, I just paid a 15% premium for my SP/SMA system compared to an LG quote and 16% over a Solar World quote. Everyone's value perception is going to be different. Chevy's are perfect grocery haulers, but BMW is in no danger of going out of business either.
I totally understand and agree with not overpaying. But taken to the extreme, an argument could be made that driving anything newer than a 1990 Yugo is "overpaying" for transportation.
My reasons for going with SP equipment include both aesthetics (everything on the roof is black, including the InvisiMount racks and even the flashing, which was important to me since the system is on the front of the house) and the quality of the modules. YMMV
So bottom line Jake... I support you either way16xLG300N1C+SE6000[url]http://tiny.cc/ojmxyx[/url]Comment
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Finally decided on an installer!
The quick summary:
- 5.7 kW system
- 19 LG 300N1K-G4 panels
- SolarEdge 5000 inverter & P320 optimizers
$3.37/W
I'll share additional thoughts on the sales/buying process as well as progress going forward throughout the duration of my project.
Thanks again to everyone who has helped me along the way. This forum has been extremely valuable and I've reaped the benefits economically and intellectually.Comment
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Jake- also in SD here.
Are you willing to share which companies you got quotes from and which one you selected?
I'm just starting out on the journey and it's absolutely mind numbing with all of the information out there. There are soooo many companies to evaluate and many seem a little shady.
This forum has been a huge help educating me.
Thanks - MUCH - in advance for any advice,
Marc (University Heights)Comment
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The only difference (other than W) between the 300 and 315 is that the 300's are all black. The specific models my installer offered were the 300-n1k-g4 and 315-n1c-g4. Color was not the reason I went with the 300's. It ultimately came down to the cost and roof space was not an issue. It was a few hundred dollars less expensive to go with 19 300's (5.7 kW) vs. 18 315's (5.67 kW).
Also, I'd suggest having your bids specify which models you are getting. The b3's have a 10 yr warranty and the g4's have a 12 yr warranty. If you're not into warranties then the b3's will be significantly less expensive if you shop around.
Good luck!Comment
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my solar experience
Here was my journey through the solar acquisition process with the caveat that I am certainly not an expert in any form or fashion. I'm simply sharing my experience for the benefit of the community...
- Entire process from day one to contract signing was one month
- First calls were to three of the national companies. Solar City, Sunrun and Sungevity (which btw is partnered with Sunrun which i didn't know at first)
- Since I decided to purchase versus lease, none of these companies really had me excited or wowed with their components or pricing.
- I then developed a list of local companies to solicit bids.
----- This is a searchable database that shows all of the installers in your area with active projects, how many, purchase vs lease, and avg cost per watt. I focused on the installers that had a balance of low cost per watt and a high number of projects in my area.
----- www.sandiegouniontribune.com/bestof /2015/for-the-home/solar-panel-company/ I called the top five and three responded.
----- I scoured this forum and asked around for recommendations
----- Total # of bids = seven
- Had face to face mtgs with five of the seven and was able to immediately cross off two (poor preparation, unprofessional presentation, etc.)
- After reviewing bids, was able to quickly eliminate two more due to their "pushing" of specific brands, unresponsiveness, and general take it or leave it attitude
- With the three remaining companies i began the negotiations process and essentially created a competitive bidding situation. After all of my research and due diligence i was ultimately comfortable with any one of the three and was now able to focus on cost
- The bidding war eliminated one more company so I was down to two
- The final two bids were essentially the same design, specs, and warranties. Neither would come down in price any more. What broke the tie was I asked for the Solar Edge 25 yr extended inverter warranty to be included at no additional cost. This retails for approx. $500. http://www.solaredge.us/groups/us/service/warranty
- Contract signed.
Panels
- I decided on LG after having considered SolarWorld and SunPower. I couldn't personally justify the premium cost for SunPower and I felt that LG offered more stability from a going concern perspective compared to SolarWorld.
- I studied up on understanding the differences in panel models. The only significant difference in my mind is that the B3 models have a 10yr warranty while the newer G4's are 12 yrs. The 300 panels I ended up going with are all black but this didn't have any impact on my choice of installers.
Inverter
- SolarEdge was the choice here based on what I read on this forum
- You can download the SE design tool program and run your system through it to ensure that the installers aren't overselling you anything http://www.solaredge.us/groups/us/in.../site-designer In my case, I was initially designed for the 6000 inverter and 300 optimizers. By playing with the design tool, I found that a 5000/320 combination would provide slightly more output today and also allow a little more room and flexibility for future growth if necessary.
Mounting and Racking
- This is the one area that I struggled the most with and there isn't a ton of information out there.
- There are a number of "systems" eg Quickmount, ProSolar/Tiletrac, Unirac, Ironridge, etc.
- I ultimately wanted a mounting system that was double flashed since roof leakage was my number one concern
- The installer I chose uses Ironridge
Warranties
- LG G4 panels are warrantied for 12 yrs (10 yrs for B3) parts and 25 yrs production. To this day, no one has clearly explained to me the difference between parts and production since in my simple mind if the panel is not producing, the parts aren't working. Some installers said LG will absolutely cover the panel and labor to replace it while others said no one really knows since LG panels aren't that old. So I let this one die on the vine and assume (correctly or incorrectly?) that after year 12, if there's a failure, LG will give me a new panel but I'll have to pay for the labor to swap it in.
- SolarEdge warranties the optimizers for 25 yrs BUT some installers don't tell you that the inverter is only warrantied for 12 (very misleading in my opinion). SE offers an extended warranty to 20 or 25 years and you can buy that directly from SE. If you are the warranty type (like me) do not include this in the initial bidding process because it will likely be marked up. I used the extended warranty as a way to add more value to the deal once the installers would no longer lower their prices
- Ironridge has a 20 year warranty
- The installer I chose has an industry standard 10yr workmanship and roof penetration guarantee
Financing
- Obviously this depends on your situation but for me, I went with a HELOC. 3.98% for the first 12 months, then PRIME + 0 with a floor of 4.25%
- Other options included:
----- HERO financing typically is around 8% and is rolled into your property taxes but there are a few different options to choose from
----- Installer financing is typically a 12 yr loan @ 2.99% with a balloon payment equal to the 30% tax credit due in 12 months. Also know that the principal cost is higher than a cash purchase as you're basically buying down the interest rate.
----- One installer offered essentially two loans, a one year same as cash (0.0%) loan on the 30% tax credit which is due in 12 months and the typical 12 yr 2.99% loan on the remaining 70%
- None of the installers accepted credit cards for anything other than the deposit
My suggestions:
- Decide early on whether you are looking to buy or lease. If you are unsure, you will be navigating through muddy waters until you make this decision.
- Do your homework, knowledge is power. The more you know, the quicker you'll identify who's trying to take advantage of you.
- Ask lots of questions and track who answers/responds. I was shocked at how many companies did not respond to questions or didn't follow up
- Beware of the companies that are urging you to "act now before time runs out"
- Unless you have limited roof space, remember that a watt is a watt regardless of the panels wattage or who the manufacturer is. Lower wattage panels can be significantly less expensive. Read this bullet point again.
- Some installers will tout "the highest efficiency" panels. All this means is that they are higher wattage panels so naturally they are more efficient. Read the previous bullet again
- I found it extremely difficult to get apples to apples comparisons across the bids so do your best, it will be worth the effort. It's really the only way to get installers competing against each other. A company that is willing to invest time and work with you to earn your business is likely a good partner to have long term.
- Check references and reviews. www.SolarReviews.com , BBB, etc. are your friends. Also check licenses at https://www2.cslb.ca.gov/OnlineServi...ckLicense.aspx A lower license number means they've been in business longer.
- Another good source of information is to download the CSI data which can be filtered. A little geeky to be honest but a good way to validate an installer's history and also to see what other folks have used and paid. https://www.californiasolarstatistic...ata_downloads/
- Validate bids' power outputs by using PVWatts http://pvwatts.nrel.gov/ or the SE Design Tool I referenced above
- Be aware of and understand mechanics liens so ask the installer if subcontractors are used
- Definitely take time to understand how net metering works http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/PUC/energy/Di...etmetering.htm
- Also determine if time of use (TOU) may benefit you http://www.sdge.com/clean-energy/ev-rates
- How much is solar worth? In addition to PVWatts, here's another model
- Another study on the value of existing PV systems http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/22/re...lues.html?_r=0
- If possible, get at least two installers to compete for your business. I was able to get an installer's initial bid down by almost $1 per watt this way, which equated to almost $5k.
In summary, I went into this thinking it would only take a week, two at most. One month later, I may have went a little overboard on my research and due diligence but I believe it eventually saved me $5k and gave me peace of mind.
Thanks to everyone who helped me along the way and best of luck to all of you embarking on your own PV adventure!
Mod Note, this is excellent work. However I did have to remove a couple of links that help our opposition while hurting our own site, please be mindful not to post links to the opposition, thankyou.Comment
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Thank you for taking the time to post this comprehensive account of your decision process. Although I'm on the east coast it has some great info which will guide some of my decisions. Currently choosing between the LG300N1K-G4 and the Sunpower x21-335, both with a SMA string inverter. My quotes for the LG are way higher than yours, the best I have at the moment is $3.98. The SP panels are at $4.50.Comment
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Jake: Thank you. Nicely done. FWIW: I wish I could communicate as clearly. If everyone considering residential PV read your long but concise post, and did about as you have done, there would be better systems being installed.
Thanx again,
J.P.M.Comment
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Don't count on LG giving you a new panel, ever. From the G4 warranty:
If the Module does not meet the warranted power output levels set out above when measured by LG or by an independent measuring institute agreed to prior to testing by LG under standard test conditions (IEC 61215) taking into account a ±3% measurement tolerance rangeLG will, at its sole and absolute discretion, either (i) repair the Module(s); (ii) supplement such deficiency in power by either
a) providing additional Module(s) to the Customer, or (b) replacing the Module(s); or (iii) Refund the difference between guaranteed minimal power output and actual (measured under LG’s STC) multiplied by the then current market price of the Module(s) or a comparable model at time Customer’s claim.
CS6P-260P/SE3000 - http://tiny.cc/ed5ozxComment
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jakepv (great name by the way).
Can you please PM me the installer you chose? Thanks!Comment
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