Yes, they certainly seem to want to knife the baby. If they go for flat rates (i.e. really high fixed charges, and really low per kwh charges), it's game over for home generation or storage, isn't it? But if they go for low fixed charges with high demand charges or large time-of-use differentials, there may be room for storage, with or without solar.
It's a policy question -- does the state utility commission (or whatever) want to encourage distributed resources or not.
Tesla Powerwall 2
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Based on how some of the POCO's are positioning themselves (reducing Net-metering and increasing solar fees) solar will not be making much of any penetration as a home power co generation in a lot of US states so IMO it will be a very long time before it becomes affordable for the masses and storage will put the ROI out even further.Leave a comment:
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And it'll be interesting to see what happens as time-of-use rates become the norm, and solar continues its march towards higher penetration; both of those things might make storage more attractive.Leave a comment:
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IMO home energy storage will take off in Germany and Australia before it hits main land US. It might make some head way in the state of HI but the price still needs to come down for most people and I am guessing the product sold will be someone in competition with Tesla.Leave a comment:
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My point was simply that a product that has had numerous iterations was far from problem-free, so just because Powerwall is on v2 doesn't somehow mean they've worked out all the kinks - that is just dumb logic and hasn't been true for Samsung, who has been around far longer than Tesla but is recalling a couple problematic products that have seen more than two generations.
I'm a fan of FLA (which I have and use) and would love to see a working Powerwall that met my needs and the right price. But I'm not gonna confidently assert it will somehow be market-changing simply because of a dog and pony show or because it bears the "Tesla" name on it -
I'm hoping that Tesla works the kinks out and ends up with a reasonable lead acid alternative.
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I admit to having a heightened sense of skepticism about Tesla's products. Still, I can see why rich people would want the cars. Stick a big-azz battery in a car, and a stout electric motor, and you have a cool toy if you have money to burn. But the Powerwall? I honestly do not see ANY worthwhile use for it, even on Maui.
gives the average residential cost of power in Maui as 35 cents/kWh.
https://www.hawaiianelectric.com/cle...upply-programs says
self-supply is the only solar plan available now; it has a minimum monthly charge of $25, so you'd want to size the array a little smaller to avoid that (per the usual good advice on this board).
If the battery costs $5500 plus $220 sales tax and $1000 installation, and qualifies for the 30% ITC, its full cost is something like $5000.
http://www.mauisolar.com/pricing.html says an 11 kWh/day system costs $3550 after hefty rebates; if it lasts 20 years, that's something like 4 cents / kWh (assuming inflation is zero, hah).
So... cost of nighttime solar power provided by the powerwall would be something like 11 + 4 = 15 cents / kWh, which is well under the 35 cents / kWh charged in Maui.
So, unlike on the mainland, it really does seem like the new powerwall pencils out ok on Maui. That suggests they'll sell a lot of systems there.
If they can't, that's powerful evidence that batteries aren't ready for prime time.
I'm sure there are mistakes in my back-of-the-envelope calculations (like, inflation won't be zero). If you find something that changes the conclusion that the powerwall pencils out ok on Maui, I'd like to hear it.
Does that help explain why the powerwall might actually be useful on Maui?Leave a comment:
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? I pointed to Maui as one of the few places it might make economic sense. I agree with J.P.M. and others that even 11 cents / kWh for storage is not economical in most areas. I guess given the tensions here I should have made that explicit.
Do you agree that, if the Powerwall could make sense anywhere, it'd make sense first in areas where power's really expensive, and there's no net metering? If so, we're on the same page.Leave a comment:
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I do think a lot of content in your posts is self serving based on an ego, is mostly off the mark, and is usually devoid of meaningful or helpful content, or composed of attachments to what seem to me to be mostly useless tree hugger crap that you ignorantly latch on to because it fits your ignorant view of the R.E. side of the world.
Which of those, if any, do you think is inaccurate?Last edited by DanKegel; 11-07-2016, 11:48 AM.Leave a comment:
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Do you agree that, if the Powerwall could make sense anywhere, it'd make sense first in areas where power's really expensive, and there's no net metering? If so, we're on the same page.Leave a comment:
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That's a pretty confrontational way to debate the technical/economic merits of a particular battery. Seems like you're calling me a hypocrite, offhand. But maybe I'm misreading, and you're actually being friendly in an abusive sort of way, who knows.
Like anyone else, I'd figure out the payback time. If it was 6 years or less, I'd be tempted. Payback's likely to be a lot shorter in Maui, though.
Because I don't know you, I don't know if you're a hypocrite or not. I also don't know if your behavior is hypocritical or not, nor do I care. I care about information content. I do think a lot of content in your posts is self serving based on an ego, is mostly off the mark, and is usually devoid of meaningful or helpful content, or composed of attachments to what seem to me to be mostly useless tree hugger crap that you ignorantly latch on to because it fits your ignorant view of the R.E. side of the world.
I consider such behavior inconsiderate, selfish, rude and perhaps dangerous, especially for readers who are as ignorant about solar and renewable energy as you are, but who come here looking for what they hope is helpful and technically correct information. Then they read the usual tripe such as you usually produce and may well think it's all a cake walk. IMO, and whether you know it or not, your postings are often a shill for the con men. Your actions here are not, IMO only, helping. Attitudes such as yours do little more than give the solar naysayers ammunition.Leave a comment:
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Like anyone else, I'd figure out the payback time. If it was 6 years or less, I'd be tempted. Payback's likely to be a lot shorter in Maui, though.
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I thought "International Trade Commission," but that made no sense.Leave a comment:
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