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  • DanKegel
    replied
    Originally posted by DanKegel View Post
    It'll be a while before rooftop solar + home storage is unambiguously cheaper... if utilities decide it saves them money for some reason, it'll happen a lot sooner.
    Along those lines, it's interesting that electric meter maker Itron and storage vendor Sonnen announced a partnership recently. Some towns already require solar on new houses; requiring 4kwh of storage as well, and using it to reduce peak system load to avoid adding peakers, may well be in the cards someday.

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  • J.P.M.
    replied
    Originally posted by Charlie W View Post

    Yep, I own an EV -- not one of theirs, strictly out of curiosity and general car nuttery, at a 70% discount -- and have long distrusted Tesla. It's hard to predict the demise of a corporation, and especially the timing of its demise. I don't see them surviving the Model 3 rollout, such as it is. That said, the other side of this is that Tesla's Model 3 customers are also iPhone customers. If anyone can be casually abused, it's iPhone customers. Kool-Aid, meet Kool-Aid.

    Anyway, I'm aware of the fit/finish/quality problems, but was not aware of further delay in Model 3 deliveries. Do you have a link about the contractor's indictment?
    Google "The Buffalo Billion Fraud and Bribery Scheme" for a synopsis of the indictment stuff. Or Google "Buffalo News" + "Ciminelli indictments". Mostly usual political corruption B.S., but a nugget is that the state bought, paid for and owns a $750 million building/facility that SolarCity will lease for a pittance for 10 years. Also notethat employment estimates have shrunk by ~~ an order of magnitude.

    I know several folks who were in the prime contractor org, mostly now looking for work or retired, but not high enough to be indicted.

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  • DanKegel
    replied
    Originally posted by Charlie W View Post
    ... batteries will last for 10 years, but that solar panels last for 25 years. So when calculating breakevens, would you not have to double the battery cost?
    Yeah, you'd need to figure in the cost of a battery swap.

    It'll be a while before rooftop solar + home storage is unambiguously cheaper... if utilities decide it saves them money for some reason, it'll happen a lot sooner.

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  • Charlie W
    replied
    Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post

    And it looks like they better come up with some more convincing arguments for the bond market given today's (03/28/18) financial news. Their bond rating is headed for lower than junk and their paper is starting to smell like it was used in he commode.

    The financial/business model used to be build the "S" to pay off the roadster and the model 3 to may off the model "S" expenses has pretty much failed. That logic/model went off the tracks when expenses were a lot more than anticipated and so they went to the bond market. Now, deliveries on the model 3 are being pushed out 'til end 2018 and fit/finish/quality problems are plaguing the model 3. Meanwhile, the panel factory in Buffalo has yet to produce a panel and the prime contractor for the construction is under indictment for screwing the state of NY out of a bunch of $$ used to finance most of the panel factory. Don't know where that'll wind up.

    Musk is a con man.
    Yep, I own an EV -- not one of theirs, strictly out of curiosity and general car nuttery, at a 70% discount -- and have long distrusted Tesla. It's hard to predict the demise of a corporation, and especially the timing of its demise. I don't see them surviving the Model 3 rollout, such as it is. That said, the other side of this is that Tesla's Model 3 customers are also iPhone customers. If anyone can be casually abused, it's iPhone customers. Kool-Aid, meet Kool-Aid.

    Anyway, I'm aware of the fit/finish/quality problems, but was not aware of further delay in Model 3 deliveries. Do you have a link about the contractor's indictment?
    Last edited by Charlie W; 03-28-2018, 10:09 PM.

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  • J.P.M.
    replied
    Originally posted by SunEagle View Post

    At this point I only trust Tesla to says whatever is can to keep the money flowing in. Even their battery posted life is an estimate and IMO not to be trusted.
    And it looks like they better come up with some more convincing arguments for the bond market given today's (03/28/18) financial news. Their bond rating is headed for lower than junk and their paper is starting to smell like it was used in he commode.

    The financial/business model used to be build the "S" to pay off the roadster and the model 3 to may off the model "S" expenses has pretty much failed. That logic/model went off the tracks when expenses were a lot more than anticipated and so they went to the bond market. Now, deliveries on the model 3 are being pushed out 'til end 2018 and fit/finish/quality problems are plaguing the model 3. Meanwhile, the panel factory in Buffalo has yet to produce a panel and the prime contractor for the construction is under indictment for screwing the state of NY out of a bunch of $$ used to finance most of the panel factory. Don't know where that'll wind up.

    Musk is a con man.

    Leave a comment:


  • Charlie W
    replied
    Originally posted by SunEagle View Post

    At this point I only trust Tesla to says whatever is can to keep the money flowing in. Even their battery posted life is an estimate and IMO not to be trusted.
    I don't trust those people any farther than I can throw their "gigafactory."

    Leave a comment:


  • SunEagle
    replied
    Originally posted by Charlie W View Post
    I'm honestly not sure. One thing that has occurred to me since this conversation last year is that it looks like Tesla's "Power Wall" batteries will last for 10 years, but that solar panels last for 25 years. So when calculating breakevens, would you not have to double the battery cost? Beyond that, given Tesla's track record of blaming the customer for any problems, I'm not inclined to especially trust their warranty.
    At this point I only trust Tesla to says whatever is can to keep the money flowing in. Even their battery posted life is an estimate and IMO not to be trusted.

    Leave a comment:


  • Charlie W
    replied
    Originally posted by DanKegel View Post
    So, unlike on the mainland, it really does seem like the new powerwall pencils out ok on Maui. That suggests they'll sell a lot of systems there.
    If they can't, that's powerful evidence that batteries aren't ready for prime time.

    I'm sure there are mistakes in my back-of-the-envelope calculations (like, inflation won't be zero). If you find something that changes the conclusion that the powerwall pencils out ok on Maui, I'd like to hear it.

    Does that help explain why the powerwall might actually be useful on Maui?
    I'm honestly not sure. One thing that has occurred to me since this conversation last year is that it looks like Tesla's "Power Wall" batteries will last for 10 years, but that solar panels last for 25 years. So when calculating breakevens, would you not have to double the battery cost? Beyond that, given Tesla's track record of blaming the customer for any problems, I'm not inclined to especially trust their warranty.

    Leave a comment:


  • Sunking
    replied
    Originally posted by cebury View Post
    Off topic, but last comment remind me of something, though the commit is not the same.
    I grew up in a small town in central CA that was 85% Hispanic. During high school, I worked retail at the local pharmacy and pizza place, and customers would get very pissed if someone didn't speak Spanish. One time a person yelled, in Spanish, "why are you speaking English, everyone here should speak Spanish". Goes along with the "I don't speak xxx, you must speak what I speak."
    BooHoo cares, this is the USA. Learn the language or leave.

    Leave a comment:


  • extrafu
    replied
    Hi, quick update on this.

    I spoke to a (relatively clueless) gentleman from MPOWER Energy Solutions in Canada - which is supposed to be the only Telsa Powerall reseller in Canada. They told me that the Powerwall 2 isn't meant to be used 100% off-grid. This rather contradicts what Telsa says on its website: "Your path off grid - Combine solar and one or more Powerwalls to power your home independently from the utility grid."

    Well, I guess I'll wait to wait until Telsa Corp gets back to me.

    Cheers!
    Last edited by extrafu; 11-16-2016, 04:34 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • inetdog
    replied
    Originally posted by Charlie W View Post

    Home energy storage: A tank of propane and a generator.
    OK, maybe we should call it cyclic home energy storage? Or home energy time shifting?

    Leave a comment:


  • Charlie W
    replied
    Originally posted by SunEagle View Post
    IMO home energy storage will take off in Germany and Australia before it hits main land US. It might make some head way in the state of HI but the price still needs to come down for most people and I am guessing the product sold will be someone in competition with Tesla.
    Home energy storage: A tank of propane and a generator.

    Leave a comment:


  • DanKegel
    replied
    Originally posted by SunEagle View Post
    It just seems that some states the POCO's and Legislation are working toward more RE and other states are pushing back to make it harder for home installations. Case in point we have an amendment here in FL that can give the POCO's more power if it passes. If it does then you we can probably kiss Net metering good by.
    Yep. That ballot amendment is totally underhanded, too. See http://fortune.com/2016/11/06/florid...-solar-ballot/

    Nevertheless, there are some valid policy reasons why one might want to favor utility scale solar over distributed solar, e.g. it's cheaper (perhaps especially if storage is involved). So, while some states are making this policy decision for bad reasons (a desire to protect corporate profits at the expense of the environment?), some might make it for good reasons (trying to get closer to zero co2 emissions more efficiently?).

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  • SunEagle
    replied
    Originally posted by DanKegel View Post

    Yes, they certainly seem to want to knife the baby. If they go for flat rates (i.e. really high fixed charges, and really low per kwh charges), it's game over for home generation or storage, isn't it? But if they go for low fixed charges with high demand charges or large time-of-use differentials, there may be room for storage, with or without solar.

    It's a policy question -- does the state utility commission (or whatever) want to encourage distributed resources or not.
    It just seems that some states the POCO's and Legislation are working toward more RE and other states are pushing back to make it harder for home installations. Case in point we have an amendment here in FL that can give the POCO's more power if it passes. If it does then you we can probably kiss Net metering good by.

    Leave a comment:


  • DanKegel
    replied
    Originally posted by Charlie W View Post
    I saw the 100% number, and for purposes of argument I will accept it in spite of my skepticism. A lithium-ion battery has a 2,000 cycle working life. That works out to 20 to 21 cents per kWh stored. We don't have the text of the10-year warranty; my guess is that it's geared to the battery's intended use for TOU gaming, which would not entail daily use because of the structure of TOU pricing that typically excludes weekends. I'd also note that this type of use might not involve a full charge/discharge cycle.

    Thus, absent more specific information, I stick with the higher numbers. It would most certainly not work for whole-house generator-style backup. Yes, because of the 100% depth of discharge claim, I'd need to make some downward adjustment in my initial cost estimates, but those adjustments aren't even remotely material for the purpose I have, and I don't think for TOU gaming either.

    p.s.: My guess is that the battery indeed has a reserve. Lithium batteries do not like full discharges.
    https://www.tesla.com/powerwall lists off-grid as an intended use, which would imply daily cycling at some lower depth of discharge. It also lists self-supply, which I think implies daily cycling at as high a depth of discharge as the battery is warranteed for... which seems to be 100% of the spec'd capacity.

    The warranty, whose text is still unknown, will probably have something like "we'll replace if it falls below 70% capacity", judging by the one or two other such warrantees I've read. So you might need to adjust cost upwards a bit.

    I still feel pretty confident it'll pencil out for areas in Hawaii which only allow self-supply solar and which have ~30 cents per kwh grid power.

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