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  • #16
    I am the earliest register member than you guys?

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    • #17
      The power wall smells more like an experiment and buzz creator. People act like they're serious about these power wall batteries but the fact is that they can't even produce enough batteries for the cars, so clearly the house batteries are lower priority product.

      A lot of companies are coming out with similar solutions but I do think that in phase appears to have the most viable one. They are designed for upgradability and expandability, yes the chemistry is little expensive now but that will be dropping over the next few years which makes them both drop-in and easy replacement. In my case I'm going to buy one or two batteries at the end of the year when they release in the United States, then as the price drops in the future I can easily add batteries to my existing two and/or drop in replace the original batteries.

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      • #18
        Like lots of things, early adoptors will pay a premium and be beta test subjects at the same time. Noblesse oblige for a few maybe. For the rest of the must have crowd, it may be a case of more money and ego than brains or common sense.

        Reliability, practicality and cost effectiveness for electrical energy storage seem some years away at this time. I wish it was all of those things now, but wishing don't make it so.

        The perception by the great unwashed masses that it is a reality will hasten the time when it does become a reality.

        Manipulating and shaping that perception is the stuff of marketing and advertising hype, most of which is B.S., done not to provide accurate information, but to stir up interest, cloud the issues and ultimately make it easier to sell stuff. Seems to me that's what most of the hype on the subject I'm currently seeing is mostly about.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post
          Like lots of things, early adoptors will pay a premium and be beta test subjects at the same time. Noblesse oblige for a few maybe. For the rest of the must have crowd, it may be a case of more money and ego than brains or common sense.
          Agree, Enphase even says that at this point it's really for the enthusiast crowd, and also that they're getting a lot of small orders indicating that.

          Reliability, practicality and cost effectiveness for electrical energy storage seem some years away at this time.
          Reliability and practicality is here I believe, it's just a matter of costs. I think personal storage is at the point Solar was some years ago, we had good enough technology but it was just too expensive.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Engineer View Post
            Reliability and practicality is here I believe, it's just a matter of costs. I think personal storage is at the point Solar was some years ago, we had good enough technology but it was just too expensive.
            Opinions vary. Roughly, I'll wait for a few years of day/day use, a couple days use for storage capacity size, and an LCOE same as POCO power cost before I commit. I'm guessing 5 - 10 years , but since I'll most likely be age demented by then, it won't matter much what my plans might be.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by Engineer View Post
              They are designed for upgradability and expandability, yes the chemistry is little expensive now but that will be dropping over the next few years
              You must be a very young puppy. I have been hearing that for 24 years.
              MSEE, PE

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              • #22
                Originally posted by Sunking View Post
                You must be a very young puppy. I have been hearing that for 24 years.
                50 years young, yes I've been hearing it too. But it's a mistake with technology to linearly extrapolate and think that because you've been hearing something for years it'll just continue like that. Either via the S curve or exponential growth (in pure IT technology) I've had my nose rubbed in the fact that - especially as a working engineer - I don't have a good future estimator (technical people are the worst because we're grappling with the problems). None of us are good actually, our brains evolved to think linearly where technology goes through an exponential growth phase (either S or continuous as I said - and not all technologies).

                The upshot is that being 1% of the way there on an exponential trend is only 7 doublings from 100%, which we're clearly seeing in PV deployment right now. Batteries are not far behind in my estimation.

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Engineer View Post
                  But it's a mistake with technology to linearly extrapolate and think that because you've been hearing something for years it'll just continue like that.
                  Agreed. Especially since consumer sales are starting. There's a huge gap between "here's an idea we had in the lab" and "here's the device for sale, with UL approval, manuals and a warranty." Now we've crossed that gap. The gap from there to "here's a similar device for sale, but it's cheaper and works a bit better" is much smaller. (And I am perfectly happy to let other people keep the demand up until we cross that next gap.)

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by jflorey2 View Post
                    (And I am perfectly happy to let other people keep the demand up until we cross that next gap.)
                    +1. Seems like almost a no brainer for most situations.

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                    • #25
                      My installer offered to put it in for free so they can figure out how much to charge for installing the systems and learn the ropes, so I figure a few batteries are worth it to get the infrastructure in place gratis. As long as the battery price is say no more than $800 USD, which is the number I've heard.

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by jflorey2 View Post
                        Agreed. Especially since consumer sales are starting. There's a huge gap between "here's an idea we had in the lab" and "here's the device for sale, with UL approval, manuals and a warranty." Now we've crossed that gap. The gap from there to "here's a similar device for sale, but it's cheaper and works a bit better" is much smaller. (And I am perfectly happy to let other people keep the demand up until we cross that next gap.)
                        There are also a lot of the POCO's that have started testing batteries by providing small units for people that have pv systems. The idea is to experiment with micro grids to see how the batteries can keep the grid balanced when the % of RE grows. Maybe with hard live data the energy storage systems can be improved to provide more kWh output as well as keep the grid happy.

                        While I too have seen, read and been told the breakthrough is just around the corner, I have a good feeling that a better battery design is close to reality.

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                        • #27
                          I've mused about installing a PowerWall (or something similar) but given my poco rates have dropped to only 5.6 cents per kWh, doing so is financial insanity.
                          oilerlord's 9.23kW Plant

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by oilerlord View Post
                            I've mused about installing a PowerWall (or something similar) but given my poco rates have dropped to only 5.6 cents per kWh, doing so is financial insanity.
                            At that rate, any solar install would be INSANE. You are experiencing what many states are experiencing. Rates are going DOWN. If you live in a state where rates are going up, there is something seriously wrong with your state energy policy.
                            MSEE, PE

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