San Jose / Bay Area - help me decide

[derekj]

Yep, yet another help me decide thread. Opinions welcome as I keep going back and forth.

My current annual usage is 9500 kWh and seems to be trending up. If I divide my yearly usage by total cost, it works out to be $0.24/kWh. I've been struggling to figure out how it might change. Other than appliances, most energy upgrades have been done. I have a toddler so it will go up as he gets older. Since I'll have solar, I'll surely run the A/C more since I won't have to worry about the bill (well, not like before). I'll be replacing the A/C sooner than later so the new one will be more efficient. We'll remodel the kitchen next year so the electric wall oven will be gone in place of a gas range. Will get a new fridge as well. So maybe it is a wash...

I did a lot of searching for local installers and all should be above average (Yelp, Angies List, Solarreviews, Diamond Certified (always cynical on that one even more than the others), etc...). I'm fairly confident whomever I choose will do a good job and also figure I'm probably paying a bit of a premium for them. The panels will be install on the front of the house and I do have some shade issues. I'd prefer the look of black panels as well and sort of want to keep the number down since, as the panel count goes up, so does the sprawl. There are some plumbing stacks and an "eyebrow" (or something like it, it is nothing functional) that take up space so panels must go around it. The more panels, the more chance of shade issues.

I'll do it by company initials, size W(dc), cost (before tax credits), $/W, equipment. There are some I'm not considering but will throw in at the end just for people to see as I found it useful seeing as many quotes as possible.

Company: CS (quoted based on a 10% bump in usage during summer months)
5500w. $23,274.00 ($4.23/w). 20 SolarWorld SW275 mono black + SolarEdge SE5000
OR
5490w. $23,715.00 ($4.32/w). 18 LG LG305 + SolarEdge SE5000

Company: CP
4675w. $19,685.00 ($4.21/w). 17 Suniva OPT275 + Enphase M215

Company: HS
4560w. $18,000.00 ($3.96/w). 16 SolarWorld SW285 mono + Enphase M215 (not black panels from what I see so probably not considering)
OR
4480w. $18,450.00 ($4.12/w). 16 SolarWorld SW280 mono black + Enphase M215

Company: ST
4578w. $20,789.00 ($4.54/w). 14 SunPower E20/327 + SolarEdge (probably a no since panels are not totally black)
OR
4690w. $22,918.00 ($4.89/w). 14 SunPower X21/335 + SolarEdge

Company: TSC
5600w. $24,020.00 ($4.29/w). 16 Supreme SNPM-GxB-350 + SolarEdge SE6000 (probably not since bificial panels and I won't get the benefit).

The not considering but in case people find the quotes useful.
Company: ST
4578w. $20,664.00 ($4.51/w). 14 SunPower E20/327 + SMA TL (shade issues and would prefer per-panel monitoring).
5559w. $24,770.00 ($4.46/w). 17 SunPower E20/327 +SolarEdge (same as above plus too expensive overall).
5696w. $27,342.00 ($4.80/w). 17 SunPower X21/335 + SolarEdge (too expensive overall).

Company: CP
6050w. $23,985.00 ($3.96/w). 22 Suniva OPT276 + Enphase M215 (this was done for a possible EV in the future).

Company: PV
4000w. $24,220.00 ($6.06/w). 16 SunPower SPR-X20-250-BLK-A-AC (inverter built into panel). (yeah, cost is insane).

Company: TSC
5232w. $26,660.00 ($5.10/w). SunPower E20/327 + SolarEdge SE6000 (too expensive overall).

It is interesting the size companies quoted based on my annual usage. Most did the about 80% energy offset, so a 4500w system. I suppose I could pick some variation of all of their quotes as well. I like the idea of a slightly bigger system for some future-proofing but really wonder if it will be necessary.

TIA for your insight.

[J.P.M.]

At least it ain't Sunpower and at least it ain't 100% offset. So far, so good.

Micros will cost more than string or string/optimisers. Optimisers will get you panel monitoring. String inverters represent one failure point. Micros as many failure point as there are panels, often w/difficult access.

If you are shooting for ~~7,600 kWh/yr. long term ave. annual output, have you run PVWatts w/ about an 8-10% system losses to confirm ?

How much more for Enphase 250's vs. 215's ? You may see some clipping w/215's on panels ~~> 260 W size or so., but it may not cost as much in lost production vs. increase in price. Just sayin'.

One other way to aid/abet future size proofing: Get on/consider T.O.U. and then time shift loads as much as your lifestyle/inclination/priorities dictate.

[solarix]

Well done on the very comprehensive quoting. I vote for the first CS solarworld/solaredge system.
and I wish I could charge anywhere near those prices here and have customers shop around this much.

[derekj]

@JPM - well, there is the one quote for SunPower with X21 panels. It's in the running as the footprint is pretty small compared to the others and the installer isn't charging extra for an attic run (he threw that in after his quote). The other prices don't have that included so it's an extra $200 to $600. Need to nail those down to more accurately compare costs. The bump for SunPower isn't as much as I thought it would be. I suppose if I bump the system cost down by $400, it works out to $4.80/watt. So about $0.50-$0.80/watt more. It's just really hard to know if the extras (warranty and degradation) will be worth it at all.

I have done some PVWatts runs and some of the quotes have provided generation numbers. For PVWatss, the loss settings throws me as I don't really know what to put. I've read enough that the default is too high and seen from 6-10% being suggested. That's a decent range so have been wondering what factors into it. I've installed SAM as well but haven't spent the time figuring everything out yet.

For all of the quotes, they will get on a TOU program. With the 80% energy offset, it can work out to be a high 90% cost offset.

I have not asked about bumping up inverter size, thanks for pointing that out. Based on what I've read previously here, it does seem to be it's not worth the extra cost in lost production. It would be good to see what they say though.


@solarix - Thanks. I started out with around 8-9 that I had things narrowed down to. One company never contacted me (even though I started to get 'how great solar' spam from them immediately), another (a major roofing company that also does solar) fell off when they seemed to indicate prices on their website were pretty fixed (and not very good) and wouldn't do much communication via email initially as I asked. The third is the >$6.00/watt SunPower master dealer that thinks their price is totally fair, even though the other master dealer in the area is the $4.8x quote. I don't think over $1.00/watt extra is worth it for the AC panels and they don't provide per-panel monitoring to the end customer.

All the quotes are over what I was expecting. I think when I was making notes, SP should have been around $4.00-$4.50/watt and non-SP no more than $3.50/watt but I think that was near the end of the Chinese dumping panels. Cost of living is outrageous in this area as well. The absolute cheapest price mentioned by any of these installers was Company HS and it was around $3.50/watt for Canadian Solar + SMA.

Why the 1st CS solarworld/solaredge system? It's pretty large. They quoted a production guarantee of 8106kWh which they said was very conservative. PVWatts (with 10% loss, tilt 20, az 160) gives 8816 kWh. According to installer, it should be around a 95% cost offset. My biggest problem is the number of panels involved in either of those quotes. It's pretty spread out. I can probably get 3 panels in near the top of the roof line (providing 3' clearance) between the side of the "eyebrows" and a plumbing stack. I think it will look odd if they space a panel around the stack, although one installer said they could cut the top of pipe, put some elbows in and route it around the panel. Below the "eyebrows" I might be about to put as many as 2 rows of 10 panels but that's where the shading issues fall. 6-7 a row probably avoid most of it. I think my sweet spot is between 14 and 16 panels (maybe 17 so 3 + 7 + 7).

[J.P.M.]

@JPM - well, there is the one quote for SunPower with X21 panels. It's in the running as the footprint is pretty small compared to the others and the installer isn't charging extra for an attic run (he threw that in after his quote). The other prices don't have that included so it's an extra $200 to $600. Need to nail those down to more accurately compare costs. The bump for SunPower isn't as much as I thought it would be. I suppose if I bump the system cost down by $400, it works out to $4.80/watt. So about $0.50-$0.80/watt more. It's just really hard to know if the extras (warranty and degradation) will be worth it at all.

I have done some PVWatts runs and some of the quotes have provided generation numbers. For PVWatss, the loss settings throws me as I don't really know what to put. I've read enough that the default is too high and seen from 6-10% being suggested. That's a decent range so have been wondering what factors into it. I've installed SAM as well but haven't spent the time figuring everything out yet.

For all of the quotes, they will get on a TOU program. With the 80% energy offset, it can work out to be a high 90% cost offset.

I have not asked about bumping up inverter size, thanks for pointing that out. Based on what I've read previously here, it does seem to be it's not worth the extra cost in lost production. It would be good to see what they say though.


@solarix - Thanks. I started out with around 8-9 that I had things narrowed down to. One company never contacted me (even though I started to get 'how great solar' spam from them immediately), another (a major roofing company that also does solar) fell off when they seemed to indicate prices on their website were pretty fixed (and not very good) and wouldn't do much communication via email initially as I asked. The third is the >$6.00/watt SunPower master dealer that thinks their price is totally fair, even though the other master dealer in the area is the $4.8x quote. I don't think over $1.00/watt extra is worth it for the AC panels and they don't provide per-panel monitoring to the end customer.

All the quotes are over what I was expecting. I think when I was making notes, SP should have been around $4.00-$4.50/watt and non-SP no more than $3.50/watt but I think that was near the end of the Chinese dumping panels. Cost of living is outrageous in this area as well. The absolute cheapest price mentioned by any of these installers was Company HS and it was around $3.50/watt for Canadian Solar + SMA.

Why the 1st CS solarworld/solaredge system? It's pretty large. They quoted a production guarantee of 8106kWh which they said was very conservative. PVWatts (with 10% loss, tilt 20, az 160) gives 8816 kWh. According to installer, it should be around a 95% cost offset. My biggest problem is the number of panels involved in either of those quotes. It's pretty spread out. I can probably get 3 panels in near the top of the roof line (providing 3' clearance) between the side of the "eyebrows" and a plumbing stack. I think it will look odd if they space a panel around the stack, although one installer said they could cut the top of pipe, put some elbows in and route it around the panel. Below the "eyebrows" I might be about to put as many as 2 rows of 10 panels but that's where the shading issues fall. 6-7 a row probably avoid most of it. I think my sweet spot is between 14 and 16 panels (maybe 17 so 3 + 7 + 7).

Your money/life/choice. Amen !

1.) I'd work on price/Watt rather than total system price for comparisons and remember that most systems have about equal output per Watt. Given than, the $4.51/W for the S.P. --->> 4.51/3.96 = 13.8% premium for S.P. based on low bids (BTW, neither one is all black). For your money you get a smaller footprint and bragging rights, but about the same annual output.

2.) Compare system/system solar components and don't muddy the waters w/ fans, moving vents and other non solar stuff that one vendor is quoting and the others aren't that may be needed/a good idea, but not part of the solar work.

3.) On the PVWatts system losses: Read the help screens and click on the loss calculator for more info. 14 % seems too high to a lot of users. 8% may be too optimistic. I use 10% but I'm not locked into it.

4.) Sam is a good performance estimator, but unless you have more experience than you demonstrate here, using it may lead to false conclusions. Just an observation.

5.) T.O.U. can be your friend and can reduce a bill, but it is not an automatic bill reducer.

6.) Your pricing expectations on S.P. seem overly optimistic. The non S.P. expectations seem more in line. I am ignorant of Bay area pricing except that it runs higher than S.CA, but those prices --- Damn !?!?

7.) Moving roof vents is done on a regular basis. Just try to ensure it's done correctly.

[easye]

having paid $2.98 per watt for my SW275 with Solar Edge inverters and optimizers in Texas I can't fathom or understand how they can charge this much out there.

[derekj]

Your money/life/choice. Amen !

1.) I'd work on price/Watt rather than total system price for comparisons and remember that most systems have about equal output per Watt. Given than, the $4.51/W for the S.P. --->> 4.51/3.96 = 13.8% premium for S.P. based on low bids (BTW, neither one is all black). For your money you get a smaller footprint and bragging rights, but about the same annual output.

Well, you can't completely rule out total system cost as the $/watt goes down as the system size gets bigger. The 5.5kW systems might be a little more if I decide a 4.5-5.0kW system is a better fit. But I do understand what you are getting at. I am considering the SP quote mostly due to the smaller footprint. Also, although my experience with all the installers that I'm considering have been positive, I did like this guy the most. He wasn't overly "green", whereas some of the others tended that way a bit too much for my tastes. Still, SP is a premium but this quote is not as much as I've seen mentioned here. In my case, looking at the lowest bid of $4.12/watt becomes $4.21/watt with lowest of $400 quote for attic run (SW280 mono black. they quoted $400-$600 for attic run) vs $4.89/watt (SP X21). That's a 16% premium, so better than I was expecting SP to be. All the other non-SP installers would be adding something for an attic run.

I'd really like a $/kWh over the lifetime of that I could feel confident in. Will SP really degrade that much slower than other panels? That cost should also be a consideration.

2.) Compare system/system solar components and don't muddy the waters w/ fans, moving vents and other non solar stuff that one vendor is quoting and the others aren't that may be needed/a good idea, but not part of the solar work.

Understood. The only thing is the attic run. For an apples to apples comparison, I need the same work quoted. So, only 1 of the installers has the attic run worked in their final cost (even though it is being thrown in, the others have not made this offer and said it would be some $$ more).

3.) On the PVWatts system losses: Read the help screens and click on the loss calculator for more info. 14 % seems too high to a lot of users. 8% may be too optimistic. I use 10% but I'm not locked into it.

I've read through them. It's just difficult to get a good feel for how you might change it. Take soiling, what if get up and clean the panels once a year? Mismatch, do all manufactures have a 2% variation? If I choose SP, would I expect tighter tolerances? Availability of 3% - now that seems really high. etc...

4.) Sam is a good performance estimator, but unless you have more experience than you demonstrate here, using it may lead to false conclusions. Just an observation.

Yes, definitely more to learn. I like the additional control over parameters but have to make sure what I'm entering is correct (or if in error, it doesn't skew the results when comparing 1 vendor to another).

5.) T.O.U. can be your friend and can reduce a bill, but it is not an automatic bill reducer.

Good point. I don't know how they come up with all of it but I think the assumption is you are not home when solar is feeding the most back to the grid so you get the benefit of net metering - do they all operate with the same parameters? I think they might based on the quotes I got. Still, better to get on the TOU now, you can always switch back if it doesn't work out.

6.) Your pricing expectations on S.P. seem overly optimistic. The non S.P. expectations seem more in line. I am ignorant of Bay area pricing except that it runs higher than S.CA, but those prices --- Damn !?!?

My pricing expectations are from this forum, but mostly from a year or so ago. I've compared some numbers with a few forum members and neighbors, and they are in-line with what is going on. Actually, there are ones that are even higher but those have been people (neighbors) who just contacted a single installer.

7.) Moving roof vents is done on a regular basis. Just try to ensure it's done correctly.

No roof vents to get moved. These are plumbing stacks. Also, the roof is less than 2 years old so I'd like to keep the alterations down.

Here's a screen shot showing the proposed 20 panel install:

20panels.jpg

You can see the plumbing stack in the top row that separates the panels. Also, there will be shade from the lower right and to the left. The best spot is the right of center on the eyebrow. The best max combo would be 15 panels (3 + 6 + 6). Another one could go on the top row but I know having the spacing between panels would drive me nuts, so it's either don't do it or, as one installer suggested, cut the top off the pipe and throw in some elbows to have it come up on the other side of the panel. Apparently that is OK to do even though you cannot cover pipe (opening).

[derekj]

having paid $2.98 per watt for my SW275 with Solar Edge inverters and optimizers in Texas I can't fathom or understand how they can charge this much out there.

I think this area is the most expensive in the state, and certainly makes a case for in the nation.

My average kWh cost was $0.24 with PG&E, so even though solar is pricey, it is cheaper than paying the electric company.

[easye]

that's true. And with that said, even though my price is lower I bet my payoff time is longer LOL. We pay 11 cents flat out here. I'm never moving from my house though, so it made sense and cents.

[dat]

I think summer is a busy season for solar installation therefore the price is higher. I also live in San Jose (Berryessa/Piedmont) I paid $3.38 per watt for 28 Canadian Solar 255 watts panels with 28 M215 in the last winter. If you wait for the end of the year, I think the price will be lower. By the way, do not pair M215 with 260 watts or higher panels, use M250 instead.

[sensij]

By the way, do not pair M215 with 260 watts or higher panels, use M250 instead.

Bad advice.

[araghava]

You should also consider purchasing all the equipment yourself and hiring a GC to do the install. It will be significantly cheaper.

[dat]

Bad advice.

Why do you think it is a bad advice? Enphase recommends maximum input power for M215 is 270watts. Even my 255watts panels clipped sometimes with M215. Here is a review from Amazon.com "Those M250's are awesome !! I upgraded from M215's and gain 25W per solar panel. I have LG 260W solar panels and my old M215's were generating 225W per solar panel. Just upgrading to M250 micro inverter on the same panel I get now 250W per panel. By replacing my old inverters to those new ones I get more energy generated on the same solar panels. "

[sensij]

Why do you think it is a bad advice?

See this post, and others. In the real world, clipping does occur, but the value of the energy "lost" doesn't typically justify the extra expense of the M250's. If they cost the same, sure, go M250. However, if there is a premium for them over the M215's, chances are good they won't produce enough to justify it.

Next time I want to make a point, instead of using real world data and proven models, I'll just cite Amazon.com reviews.

[dat]

See this post, and others. In the real world, clipping does occur, but the value of the energy "lost" doesn't typically justify the extra expense of the M250's. If they cost the same, sure, go M250. However, if there is a premium for them over the M215's, chances are good they won't produce enough to justify it.

Next time I want to make a point, instead of using real world data and proven models, I'll just cite Amazon.com reviews.

What you say is true, but it is only your view ( and it is the most economic view). But there are other factors that you don't see or consider. For example, I believe the M215 life span will be shorten if the clipping occurs more with larger panels. If you pair it with more than 270 watts panels, will the manufacturer still warranty its product (recommended maximum 270 watts)? One important factor is our feeling. If I see it clipped a lot, I definitely will not be happy. I will pay more to make myself happy. Just like some people pay more to fly business or first class, to stay in a 5 stars hotel instead of 3 or 4 stars hotel.
Edit: The OP does not necessary to pay more for the M250. If the larger panel is used, just ask the installer to use M250 for the same price. The price should be $/w. If the installer does not want to use M250 then ask him to use smaller panels. There are many ways to get things done.